[NL2-NL10] NL5 rush, correct call ?

    • acceleration123
      acceleration123
      Silver
      Joined: 11.12.2010 Posts: 5,311
      I made some calculations on the flop for myself here ... Is it right or am I missing something ? Can I expect to win such amout ?? What do you think ?



      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      MP1:
      $4,62
      Hero:
      $7,8
      BU:
      $4,4

      0,02/0,05 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant.Base 0.99 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 7:heart: , 6:heart:
      2 folds, MP1 calls $0,05, 2 folds, Hero calls $0,05, BU raises to $0,30, 2 folds, MP1 calls $0,25, Hero calls $0,25.

      Flop: ($0,97) T:heart: , 9:diamond: , 5:heart: (3 players)
      MP1 checks, Hero checks, BU bets $0,77, MP1 folds, Hero calls $0,77.

        Do I have enough implieds to call here profitably ?
        I have 8 clean outs (I am not counting GS as a clean out here) Pot is 1,74$, I have to call 0,77$. I am getting roughly 2.5:1 and I´d need 4:1. The pot would have to be 3,08$ for me to call here profitably +EV. SO I would need to win another 3,08 - 1,74 = 1,34 on later streets to call here.

      Turn: ($2,51) Q:heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU checks.

      River: ($2,51) 6:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1,5, BU calls $1,50.

      Final Pot: $5,51
  • 5 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      don´t really see how you can c/f that flop, so c/c is fine option.
      I'd personally would isolate MP1 by raising pf or if I limp/called, then c/rai on the flop, since you always have there fold equity and if he would b/c his overpairs, then you should have around 40% equity with your flushdraw+gutshot
    • acceleration123
      acceleration123
      Silver
      Joined: 11.12.2010 Posts: 5,311
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      don´t really see how you can c/f that flop, so c/c is fine option.
      Hm, maybe if he made it like pot-size knowing he is tight and would fold his overpairs or even sets when another :heart: comes on the turn I think I can consider folding. But my point was somewhere else :) . I wanted to know if I made the right calculation about implieds - I am trying to make these stuff (odds, implieds, equity calculations) automatic for me so I can run the numbers fast when playing even when playing several tables at once.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by acceleration123
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      don´t really see how you can c/f that flop, so c/c is fine option.
      Hm, maybe if he made it like pot-size knowing he is tight and would fold his overpairs or even sets when another :heart: comes on the turn I think I can consider folding. But my point was somewhere else :) . I wanted to know if I made the right calculation about implieds - I am trying to make these stuff (odds, implieds, equity calculations) automatic for me so I can run the numbers fast when playing even when playing several tables at once.
      about your question:
      I have 8 clean outs
      - you have there imo 12 clean outs unless he has there smt like AhKh, but that is quite rare. Against overpairs you have 12 outs to improve

      Pot is 1,74$, I have to call 0,77$. I am getting roughly 2.5:1 and I´d need 4:1. The pot would have to be 3,08$ for me to call here profitably +EV. SO I would need to win another 3,08 - 1,74 = 1,34 on later streets to call here.
      - that should be correct
    • acceleration123
      acceleration123
      Silver
      Joined: 11.12.2010 Posts: 5,311
      Thank you.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello acceleration123,

      Yes, you are getting correct implied odds even if you just count the FD outs, although you could be even counting more then you need slightly smaller amount. Although I'd just donk the turn myself for the reason that I expect to see from his side the Check behind on turn like most of the time but while he still could Call our donk or even raise.

      Best regards.