[NL20-NL50] NL20 FR turned set Value bet river or check behind?

    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,207
      Pacific Poker - $0.20 NL - Holdem - 8 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      MP+1: $19.27
      Hero (CO): $41.60
      BTN: $19.52
      SB: $24.06
      BB: $24.32
      UTG: $17.36
      UTG+1: $20.43
      MP: $20.00

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.20

      Pre Flop: ($0.30) Hero has 6:club: 6:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to $0.50, Hero raises to $1.50, fold, fold, fold, MP+1 calls $1.00

      Flop: ($3.30, 2 players) 3:diamond: Q:club: J:diamond:
      MP+1 checks, Hero bets $2.47, MP+1 calls $2.47

      Turn: ($8.24, 2 players) 6:heart:
      MP+1 checks, Hero bets $5.80, MP+1 calls $5.80

      River: ($19.84, 2 players) 4:diamond:
      MP+1 checks, Hero checks

      MP+1 shows Q:spade: A:spade: (One Pair, Queens) (PreFlop 47%, Flop 91%, Turn 0%)
      Hero shows 6:club: 6:spade: (Three of a Kind, Sixes) (PreFlop 53%, Flop 9%, Turn 100%)
      Hero wins $18.85
  • 6 replies
    • matusko
      matusko
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 05.09.2010 Posts: 5,887
      b/f river.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello muel294,

      You can even bet the turn bigger ~$7 to protect on that board vs any draws and as well even value from Qx. As played the river, If he had the flush he would just shove himself, therefore you can easily consider him having some kind of weak hand maybe TP or something similar. Ship it.

      Best regards.
    • thazar
      thazar
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      yes I would have bet a bit bigger on turn (at least) $6.5 and shove river
    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,207
      if he has JJ/QQ we'd expect him to raise the flop or turn as well, so we can rule them out?

      or are we just ignoring set over set possibilities and going broke?

      ty
    • thazar
      thazar
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      try to play agaisnt a range rather than specific hands. so let's say he could have AQ, KQ, JQ, JJ+ and 9dTd in his range out of that he will probably fold hte 9dTd (but that is only one combo) to a river bet and he might fold others but again you might get called.

      against that range you are well ahead. and you should bet.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by muel294
      if he has JJ/QQ we'd expect him to raise the flop or turn as well, so we can rule them out?

      or are we just ignoring set over set possibilities and going broke?

      ty
      On such a drawy board, rather yes. I would expect him to raise flop or turn and I don't think that I would get away while we usually do not put only on nut hands but rather on range and KK/AA might be as well in his range and maybe even AQ/AK and maybe even draws.