Can a NL25 player beat NL400?

    • SilverSag
      SilverSag
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 512
      I have a pretty wierd situation someone wants to stake me, but I am not sure if it is a good idea :f_cool:

      My friend is a professional poker player and is being staked by some guy I don't know at this point. He is telling me that his staker is interested in staking me as well.

      The situation is as follows:

      My poker experience is about 250 000 hands total and I am playing NL25 for third month now with average winrate of 9bb/100h. I still have tons and tons of things to learn, my game is not very good, but I think I am doing OKish.

      My friend is a bit of a gambler type in his approach to poker. He has never read a book about poker (he is not very good at reading anyways :f_biggrin: ) has learned everything by trial and error and by losing huge sums of money. Now he seems to be running in profit.

      He is impressed about my recent results in live tournaments (see my blog, ROI 300%) and has talked his staker into staking me in cash games, which is my speciality so to say. It all sounds good, BUT:

      They want me to play in NL100 at least, possibly even NL200 or NL400 if I want to!!! And they want me to do this on PokerStars ( I play on Boss Media now) So what should I do? Just take the money with "what the hell its not my money anyways" attitude and give those higher limits a shot? Or just refuse the offer on the grounds that I just dont feel I can beat the game?

      I know, that I will not be affected by the size of bets even in NL400. I have gambled with bigger amounts and I have "its just chips"attitude. The problem is the skill level, can I realistically expect to win, even with a small winrate?

      I would be very interested to hear your advice :)
  • 34 replies
    • Snodreliss
      Snodreliss
      Silver
      Joined: 23.12.2007 Posts: 1,280
      Just wow :|

      Well if u wanna gamble and loose all money witch you get staked gogogo!
    • Zhusy
      Zhusy
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2010 Posts: 382
      Originally posted by Snodreliss
      Just wow :|

      Well if u wanna gamble and loose all money witch you get staked gogogo!
      Best advice ever...

      Anyways back to the topic.

      Yes you can beat nl200+ with your nl25 skills. You can beat even the nosebleeds, but as on nl25, there is a downswing on nl400 too, the problem isn't the downswing itself, the problem is the amount of money and the difference in % loses. Ask yourself what will be the end scenario?

      I mean...
      You can take the shot and try out few sessions. If you see thats not your thing then don't do it, stop or whatever? How you gonna know if you can beat nl400 if you don't try? The poker there(nl200+) nowadays isn't that different then on the nl25. The players got shitload better.

      I mean there are many aspects to consider, but since you said you "gambled" with such sums of money, then it shouldn't be a huge problem on the human "this is so much money psychical" side.

      And as you said "it's not your money" :D
    • Kruppe
      Kruppe
      Black
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,144
      LOL

      why would you not want to?

      don't you realise that either
      a) you are +EV and CAN'T LOSE AND WILL PROBABLY WIN or
      b) you are -EV and YOU CAN'T LOSE BUT CAN WIN
    • fusionpk
      fusionpk
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,683
      yeah how is it not +EV for u? its like someone giving u a free $100 roulette chip... even though edge is in there favour u sometimes win and the times u dont u lose nothing.....
    • peche025
      peche025
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2008 Posts: 1,387
      Well as everyone else had pointed out, you really don't have much to lose, however, I don't think a NL25 player on boss media would beat NL400 on stars.
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Originally posted by peche025
      Well as everyone else had pointed out, you really don't have much to lose, however, I don't think a NL25 player on boss media would beat NL400 on stars.
      Maybe not NL400 since skill lever is pretty high and considerably lower % of complete fish compared to NL25. But as said before there is nothing to lose on your part and if you don't feel comfortable playing NL400 then at least take staking for NL100.
    • OZSA
      OZSA
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.05.2009 Posts: 804
      this is like you met with bill gates and he throw to you a stack of money, its free, take it..
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      where do you guys get the idea that a NL25 player can beat NL400 (on pokerstars no less)? yikes.
    • i5bet72o
      i5bet72o
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,615
      well if its basically a freeroll id say take it (but i would reccomend hiring a coach). btw IMO there is no way its +EV for u to play (if u were playing with your own money) but if your friend wants to let give away money y refuse/
    • SilverSag
      SilverSag
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 512
      Thanks for opinions guys, keep them coming! :)

      Why refuse? Because there are much more stakees than stakers around and maybe I will need him when I will be ready for those stakes. From that point of view I would build much better reputation if I would refuse now... that's my argument.

      Another thing is that it will disrupt my planned development. I am trying to do everything "by the book" now - starting from zero, building my own bankroll from money I won, going through the limits as I progress, learning, etc...

      If I start playing there I will lose my PS status and will not get access to strategies and videos I need, for example.

      There is a big probability that I will just waste my time, get experience, which is not needed, yet and will not grow my BR.

      Anyways, I have decided that best course of action would be to meet the staker, frankly explain the situation and, if he is still willing to risk, then I will give a shot at NL100 and see how it goes...
    • MJQuads
      MJQuads
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2008 Posts: 373
      Hmm, whatever you decide on this matter, keep us updated with the results. Who knows, maybe you'll try NL100, will be good at it and there will be no need to play lower than that (and you can still study and learn alongside playing NL100+).
    • SilverSag
      SilverSag
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 512
      Originally posted by Jkob
      Hmm, whatever you decide on this matter, keep us updated with the results. Who knows, maybe you'll try NL100, will be good at it and there will be no need to play lower than that (and you can still study and learn alongside playing NL100+).
      I will. If not on this thread then definitely in my blog. I am interested myself, especcially because I am effectively a pro now ( I am unemployed and don't have any other income than poker) and desperately need money. :f_cool:
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Originally posted by SilverSag
      Another thing is that it will disrupt my planned development. I am trying to do everything "by the book" now - starting from zero, building my own bankroll from money I won, going through the limits as I progress, learning, etc...
      Playing against stronger competition will force you into improve ASAP or GTFO mode and should increase the speed at which you develop.

      If I start playing there I will lose my PS status and will not get access to strategies and videos I need, for example.
      PS status means shit, and your status will remain same for a month or so anyway. There are lots of other training sites in case you'd turn out winning @ NL100+ and you'll easily be able to afford being member of those.


      There is a big probability that I will just waste my time, get experience, which is not needed, yet and will not grow my BR.
      Time can't be wasted when you get experience in return and experience at NL100+ will make you do significantly better at NL25. (unless you'd go broke in three hands obv :f_biggrin: )

      Anyways, I have decided that best course of action would be to meet the staker, frankly explain the situation and, if he is still willing to risk, then I will give a shot at NL100 and see how it goes...
      Yea, I think this is the right way to go if you so want to be 100% clean on this one.
    • SilverSag
      SilverSag
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 512
      Thanks, Night :) This seems to cover it all :) I guess I will try it out.
    • SilverSag
      SilverSag
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 512
      Double post
    • PocketAcesJohn
      PocketAcesJohn
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2008 Posts: 1,116
      Take the money, keep the money, keep playing NL25, claim you lost the money.....Christmas come eairly! :f_biggrin: :s_cool:
    • roopopper
      roopopper
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2010 Posts: 4,289
      why dont you chat to the guy and tell him your worries maybe you could come to a compromise somewhere in the middle? nl50 maybe?

      Then if you are doing well take another step up




      :P
    • uniquehorn
      uniquehorn
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.04.2011 Posts: 4
      I think you should try the 100nl, I'm not sure you will be giving another chance
      to jump up like that.
      try nl100, if you see you can handle it pretty good try even higher.
      a few points :
      $ I don't think it's a good idea to refuse the offer ( might be the only offer )
      $ I don't think it's a good idea to jump to nl400, (as a few said here, less fishes for sure, and much more skilled players, so, try 100 and upgrade yourself)
      $ give it more then a few sessions, there is variance also in nl100, not only at nl25.
      $ and the last point is, when someone stakes you, you playing better, you trying harder, and you get option to upgrade yourself, your bankroll and your game skills faster . don't think twice go for it, but do it smart. Good luck.
    • fuzzyfish
      fuzzyfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.01.2010 Posts: 862
      I'll give you $4000 and if you last at least 10 000 hands I'll give you another $24 000. I'm pretty confident you'll lose it, but today Jesus came to me in my dream and said I'm supposed to help people. So, do we have a deal?
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