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[NL2-NL10] NL5 Overpair vs pair+FD

    • L3ST
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 413
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($9.89)
      BB ($13.31)
      UTG ($4.21)
      UTG+1 ($3.21)
      CO ($4.34)
      BTN ($5.15)

      Dealt to Hero K:heart: K:spade:

      fold, fold, CO raises to $0.15, fold, Hero raises to $0.55, fold, CO calls $0.40

      FLOP ($1.15) 6:club: 4:club: T:heart:

      Hero bets $0.90, CO raises to $3.79 (AI), Hero calls $2.89

      TURN ($8.73) 6:club: 4:club: T:heart: 2:club:

      RIVER ($8.73) 6:club: 4:club: T:heart: 2:club: J:spade:

      CO shows T:club: A:club:
      (Pre 33%, Flop 51.6%, Turn 100.0%)

      Hero shows K:heart: K:spade:
      (Pre 67%, Flop 48.4%, Turn 0.0%)

      CO wins $8.30

      I figured he had FD, but was thinking I was ahead.

      HEM says I was slightly behind ( 48% vs 52% on the flop ).

      He has pair+FD which means 14 outs. ( 9 to flush, 3 to two pair, 2 to trips ).

      I have a hard time understanding why I was behind.
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello L3ST,

      First of all, I'd definitely go broke here as well against his stack and likely you are correct that he is a bit ahead.

      Board: 6:club: 4:club: T:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    48.38%  48.38%   0.00% { KhKs }
      UTG+1  51.62%  51.62%   0.00% { AcTc }

      But this is mainly if you count his outs, most of the deck will help him and therefore as well that's why he is ahead. And as well all those outs are clean for him. Like there might be help for you only from one K since with other K the board has to pair and that's basically all what can help you.

      Best regards.