[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL 50 fold KK on turn vs station raise ?

    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975


      Hero (CO): $57.70
      BTN: $25.65
      SB: $54.25
      BB: $40.85
      UTG: $59.15

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with K:heart: K:club:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $1.75, BTN calls $1.75, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

      Flop: ($5.75) T:club: J:club: 5:spade: (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $4.25, BTN calls $4.25, SB folds

      Turn: ($14.25) T:spade: (2 players)
      Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $9, BTN raises to $19.65 all in, Hero thinks about folding


      Now I think that the turn is a b/f because I can never expect this 'pure' station to be rasing a draw and his range is exactly: Tx, 55, JJ not even K:club: Q:club: I assume
  • 4 replies
    • purplefizz
      purplefizz
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.03.2008 Posts: 4,508
      how many hands is that? when i see 62/1/ 0.9 fish reraising me like that id have a sick feeling in my stomach already. sigh. can i fold $10 in 44 pot? we need to be good like 18% of the time and at least we're not drawing completely dead yet if we can hit our 2 outer :f_biggrin: (this is how i wld reason to myself even when i know im beat)
      i expect him to have at least a set here almost all the time. have to agree with u on that. yet im not sure i would be strong enough to make a hero fold during the game.

      ur hands are sick demarco :f_biggrin:
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I would not b/f that spot KK against midstack fish
      If he has there Tx, then just unlucky, but imo he would shove that smt like AJ and he may sometimes have there huge draw that he would go, smt like KsQs
      You get very good odds and would not always draw to 2 outs, so I can´t see myself really b/f that spot
    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975

      Board: T:club: J:club: 5:spade:  T:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    10.95%  10.95%   0.00% { KhKc }
      MP3    89.05%  89.05%   0.00% { TT, 55, T2s+, KsQs, Qs9s }



      And I put only the suited TX combos in his range and I'm sure he has a fair amount of unsuited ones.

      Also I think we need over 20% percent for it to be BE (actually ~25%, right?) so we shouldn't be calling just because we have KK in this spot.

      BTW what do you think about the bet size? I think it's a good one because I'm getting good value from his draws and as I see it there is room for a fold.

      Where does our judgement differ ?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by DeMarcohsp

      Board: T:club: J:club: 5:spade:  T:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    10.95%  10.95%   0.00% { KhKc }
      MP3    89.05%  89.05%   0.00% { TT, 55, T2s+, KsQs, Qs9s }



      And I put only the suited TX combos in his range and I'm sure he has a fair amount of unsuited ones.

      Also I think we need over 20% percent for it to be BE (actually ~25%, right?) so we shouldn't be calling just because we have KK in this spot.

      BTW what do you think about the bet size? I think it's a good one because I'm getting good value from his draws and as I see it there is room for a fold.

      Where does our judgement differ ?
      Also I think we need over 20% percent for it to be BE (actually ~25%, right?)
      - I get 19,2% equity, so 20% should be fine generally and that would make b/f KK very difficult, since imo he can shove there strong draws, like AsQs, AsJs and very likely also a lot of Jx hands, since he has only 50bb starting stack and he knows if he c/c turn he would also have to c/c rive,r so he would very likely shove these hands that he would call down, unless it is some kind of flushdraw where he can c/c turn and then c/f river ui


      BTW what do you think about the bet size? I think it's a good one because I'm getting good value from his draws and as I see it there is room for a fold.
      - seems fine, but I would not b/f that spot

      Where does our judgement differ?
      -somehow you tend to think not that big sample and without really no reads that he would only c/rai turn with Tx+ and some combo draws. I would say his range is definitely wider consider most of the times also Jx hands