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all in EV graph

    • Bogdan1190
      Joined: 29.04.2009 Posts: 406
      Hy does anyone know for what is the all in graph line on PT3 ?

      and how is it calculated and how can you interpret it ?

      my green line is down and the all in EV line is up at about oposite distance appart.
  • 4 replies
    • Veeziits
      Joined: 13.10.2010 Posts: 81
      I think it calculates the probability of you winning the pot the moment when both players are all in.
      for example if pot is 10$ and the chance of you wining is 80% it acts, like you have gotten 8$ of the pot.
      something like that
      I'm not very good in explaining staff in english :D
    • phathustler
      Joined: 03.01.2011 Posts: 23
      Every time you're all in, you have some percentage chance of winning the pot. For example if you go all-in KK against AA, you've got something like 20% chance to win. You can view that percentage as your share of the pot that you expect to earn in the long run. That's because, if you're in those situations a lot, you expect them to average out in the long run. That is, since you expect to win 20% of the time, you can view it as being entitled to a 20% share of the pot in the long run.

      However, in any particular all-in, you either win (earning more than your share) or you lose (earning less than your share). Sometimes you win with KK vs AA, and you get 100% of the pot, even though you only expect 20%. Sometimes you lose and get 0% when you expect 20%.

      The all-in EV line tracks what your winnings would be if each time you went all-in you won exactly your expected share, rather than what the actual outcome was that particular time.

      Continuing with the KK vs AA example, suppose you go all-in for $5 against someone else so that the pot size is $10.
      When you win, your opponents bet of $5 (ignoring rake), and your profit line will go up by $5 for that hand. But your all-in EV line will go down $3, because you only expect to win 20% of the $10, which is $2. You bet $5 and will win an average $2 in the long run, so your all-in EV line ignores the result and says that you should have lost $3.
      When you lose, you lose your bet of $5, and your profit line decreases by $5 for that hand. The all-in EV line still just goes down $3, because it didn't care what the particular result was anyway, it just paid attention to your percentage chance of winning and the size of the pot.

      As far as interpreting it: it's useful because it gives you a way to sense how much of a factor luck was in your all-ins. If your all-in EV line is way above your profit line, it means that you got unlucky in all-ins. If your all-in EV line is below your profit line, it means you got lucky. The direction of the change of the all-in EV line at an all-in indicates whether it was a profitable all-in or not: up is good, down is bad.

      By looking at it you can get a quick sense of whether your positive session was just a few lucky all-ins, or if your bad session was a result of some unlucky ones. It tries to help inform you about whether "in the long run" whether your play that session was profitable.

      Buuuut, all-in EV isn't the entirety of how luck influences the game. There's a lot of stuff you probably don't notice as much like how card-dead the blinds were so they were letting you steal more than normal, or people were folding more or less to cbets than average because they were hitting flops, or you were getting dealt more set-up hands, etc.
    • Bogdan1190
      Joined: 29.04.2009 Posts: 406
      hey man thx for posting this verry verry informative thanks a lot.
    • XandreW36
      Joined: 05.09.2010 Posts: 197
      What do you think about this graph:
      [img][IMG][/IMG] Uploaded with[/img]

      I'm getting 1k bb under EV on 20k hands. Is that normal to happen sometimes, or I'm really unlucky at the moment?