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New level of the game

    • Dawidas888
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      I've been playing poker on and off for a while.

      Now I will take this game to the new level.

      My commitments:
      :spade: Play 60.000 - 80.000 hands per month (multi-tabling 16-24 tables)
      :diamond: Make 15 personal play analysis per month (each ~1h long)
      :club: Keep track of my progress by writing 2-3 poker related posts a week
      :heart: 1-2 post a week about me in general and my thoughts about life

      "Ima show [myself] how great I am"

      Off to the start
  • 4 replies
    • MrS212i
      Joined: 03.02.2011 Posts: 595
      good luck with ur journey :D
    • Dawidas888
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Thanks mate :)

      My first analysis:
      Hand converted with online hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      SB (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, K.
      UTG2 raises to $0.30, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $0.30, 2 folds, BU calls $0.30, Hero calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20.

      Flop: ($1.5) T, 2, A (5 players)
      Hero checks, BB bets $0.80, UTG2 folds, MP2 calls $0.80, BU folds, Hero calls $0.80.

      Final Pot: $3.9.

      [b][u]03.05.2011 – Tuesday

      1.[/b][/u] K9s hand

      Good preflop call. Folding is not bad either, because I have very few straight possibilities and my pairs often won’t be good in multi-way pot. My flush can also be dominated.

      Squeezing is a possibility, but a very bad one. I would be isolating myself vs. better hands and I rarely if ever have enough fold equity.

      Flop: I get just the right odds to call the flop (if I just think about my FD). I need 4:1 and I get 4.25:1.
      The ranges I assign:
      BB – Ax, ATo/s, A2o/s, T2, TT, 22 (AA would very likely 3bet preflop) and QcJc, JcTc
      MP2 – 22, TT, AT+, A2s, QcJc, JcTc

      Board: AcTd2c
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 45.12% 42.98% 2.14% { TT, 22, ATs+, A2s, QcJc, JcTc, ATo+ }
      SB 33.46% 33.36% 0.10% { Kc9c }
      BB 21.42% 19.33% 2.09% { TT, 22, A2s+, T2s, QcJc, JcTc, A2o+, T2o }

      Even against these tight ranges I have enough equity to call the flop bet. Folding is not an option, my hand is too good.

      EV (call) = $4.2 * 0.33 + (-$0.8) * 0.67 = $1.38-$0.54= $0.84
      This is the best case scenario where there are no bets on the turn, however, this will not be the case very often and my EV decreases significantly if I get to see only 1 card for this price (and am forced to fold on the turn).

      What about a raise? If I raise, there are some hands that would fold. BB might fold AK-AJ (which is not a big part of his range) and A9-A3. He is not folding a 2 pair (very not likely even for T2). The same is for MP2.

      Not folding: (35) Fold equity: 84/155 ~54%
      TT, 22 (6) Likelihood that both will fold: 84/155*84/155 = ~29%
      AT, A2, T2 (27)
      QcJc, JcTc (2)

      AK-AJ (36)

      Likely to fold:
      A9-A3 (84)

      So, if I ship (because I would be pot committed after any decent raise) and I get called, I have 32% of equity:

      Both call
      Board: AcTd2c
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 33.97% 30.57% 3.40% { TT, 22, ATs+, T2s, QcJc, JcTc, ATo+, T2o }
      SB 32.05% 31.92% 0.13% { Kc9c }
      BB 33.97% 30.57% 3.40% { TT, 22, ATs+, T2s, QcJc, JcTc, ATo+, T2o }

      EV (fold) = $3.4 * 0.29 = $0.99 (29% of the times I will win $3.40)
      EV (called) = ($22.83 pot size) * 0.32 + (-$8.68 my risking amount) * 0.68 = $7.31 + (-$5.9) = $1.41
      EV = $1.41 + $0.99 = $2.40

      [b][u]Does this mean that a ship would be more profitable than a call in the long run?[/b][/u]

      I am really looking forward to any comments regarding my calculations/assumptions or anything else. I have just started calculating, so there might be fundamental flaws :)
    • Jan217
      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 626
      I dont think I would ever raise OP there, you're just gone be checking on the turn if a club doesnt come and even worse flush draws might then bet you off your hand which is very bad.

      Also with regards to decreased equity if you only get to see one card, remember you also have implied odds for hitting your flush. You'll almost certainly get stacks in if someone has a worse flush and should get at least one more bet from any twopairs/sets.
    • Dawidas888
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      By raising I mean getting All In and by my calculations it seems that it is more profitable than just calling. I agree with implied odds though, which add a little bit to EV of calling.