[NL2-NL10] MSS Donk

    • BAMLara
      BAMLara
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.09.2007 Posts: 67
      iPoker - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 10 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      MP: $4.09
      MP+1: $3.00
      Hero (MP+2): $3.31
      LP: $9.54
      CO: $5.19
      BTN: $5.00
      SB: $11.72
      BB: $4.00
      UTG: $3.16
      UTG+1: $5.68

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10, MP+1 posts DB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.25) Hero has J:heart: A:diamond:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, fold, MP+1 checks, Hero raises to $0.50, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.45, fold, fold, fold

      Flop: ($1.30, 2 players) 8:heart: 6:diamond: J:diamond:
      SB bets $0.50, Hero raises to $2.81, SB calls $2.31

      Turn: ($6.92, 2 players) 4:spade:

      River: ($6.92, 2 players) 6:club:


      Villan VPIP 13 PFR% 8 AF 3 WTSD 22 Hands 428 3Bet preflop 0.8

      Is it OK to go broke on this flop? (I didn't look for his Donkbet% when i went allin)

      Regards,

      BAM
  • 3 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hi,


      What do you think his range is for donking this flop? He plays 13/8 so that is pretty tight
    • BAMLara
      BAMLara
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.09.2007 Posts: 67
      Hi, Gerv
      I was hoping to see KJ, AJ, two :diamond: 's, maybe JJ or QQ since he only 3bets KK+. I looked in to his stats and his donk flop % is 40 (10/25), i think that's high but i have no idea what range of dbet we're looking for ?( .

      Regards,

      BAM
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Well I think he mostly c/R nutted hands so his range is like:

      • Toppairs
      • Flushdraws
      • weird overpairs/2pairs

        Hence:


        Board: J:diamond: 6:diamond: 8:heart:
               Equity     Win     Tie
        MP2    50.20%  49.97%   0.23% { QQ+, KJs, QJs, JTs, 86s, KdQd, KdTd, 9d7d, KJo }
        MP3    49.80%  49.57%   0.23% { AdJh }




      So I think it is OK to shove the Flop because he might fold the toppairs you have beat on the Turn if the turn completes he FD for example. Removing QQ+ gives you more equity obvious :)

      Best regards,
      Gerv