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[NL2-NL10] AJ os Flop TP and nut FD. NL10 FR

    • MrMardyBum
      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 2,235
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($10)
      BB ($4)
      UTG ($4.55)
      UTG+1 ($10.40)
      UTG+2 ($12.21)
      MP1 ($10.69)
      CO ($10)
      Hero ($12.85)

      Dealt to Hero A:spade: J:heart:

      fold, fold, UTG+2 calls $0.10, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.45, fold, fold, UTG+2 calls $0.35

      FLOP ($1.05) 9:spade: J:spade: T:spade:

      UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $0.80, UTG+2 raises to $1.80, Hero raises to $12.40 (AI), UTG+2 calls $9.96 (AI)

      TURN ($24.57) 9:spade: J:spade: T:spade: 3:spade:

      RIVER ($24.57) 9:spade: J:spade: T:spade: 3:spade: 2:diamond:

      Hero shows A:spade: J:heart:
      (Pre 60%, Flop 52.6%, Turn 90.9%)

      UTG+2 shows T:heart: 9:heart:
      (Pre 40%, Flop 47.4%, Turn 9.1%)

      Hero wins $23.35

      Villain 22/12 - 139 hands. Which wouldn't help much on a hand like this I guess. This hand I think was just me thinking I'll either save or completely destroy this session. Am I completely out of line here?

      I'll be honest I thought he had something like K,J with the K-high FD, AJ and tried to protect against the FD, Ks,x or he thought I had missed and was putting in a C-bet anyway with overcards and FD and thought he could get me off the hand.
  • 2 replies
    • Yeodan
      Joined: 28.05.2008 Posts: 29
      Tried really hard not to look at the results before typing this, actually so much it made my eyes hurt!

      Don't post results please, they affect people's hand evaluation.

      This hand looks really awesome at first, I'd play it the same way you did at the tables.

      Reviewing it with PokerStove at my side, it actually looks pretty horrible.

      Villain has two spades here nearly every time, check / raise means strength nearly every time.

      You only have 30% chance to win vs any two spades.

      Against his entire preflop range, you have 60% chance to win.
      Things like AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 32s+, AJ, AT

      I think villain shows up with spades here most of the time though.

      Edit: Seeing the results, I guess I always end up against the villains that do have it ... I feel kinda sad now!
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello MrMardyBum,

      Basically against that kind of range we are likely getting pretty coinflip and I wouldn't really say that it's so big mistake to go broke. Although when rather being against passive opponent then I might even fold but going broke ain't a mistake.

      Board: 9:spade: J:spade: T:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    42.21%  41.22%   0.99% { AsJh }
      UTG+1  57.79%  56.79%   0.99% { TT-99, JTs, T9s, 8s7s, 6s5s, JTo, T9o }

      Best regards.