[NL20-NL50] NL25 FR top set on ugly board

    • thazar
      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,561
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($34.68)
      BB ($11.25)
      UTG ($25)
      UTG+1 ($8.75)
      UTG+2 ($39.69)
      MP1 ($26.26)
      Hero ($25.10)
      CO ($20.17)
      BTN ($29.06)

      Dealt to Hero Q:diamond: Q:spade:

      UTG calls $0.25, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.10, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.85

      FLOP ($2.55) Q:club: J:club: 5:club:

      UTG bets $0.50, Hero raises to $4, UTG calls $3.50

      TURN ($10.55) Q:club: J:club: 5:club: T:diamond:

      UTG checks, Hero bets $6, UTG raises to $13.10, Hero calls $7.10

      RIVER ($36.75) Q:club: J:club: 5:club: T:diamond: 9:spade:

      UTG bets $6.80 (AI), Hero ?

      the board cvould not get worse i think :) On the turn I call because I have 19% pot odds and I am very likely given the size of the pot to be able to stack him if I hit my boat but I think I am already behind. What do I beat on the river? would he bet TT-JJ? would he bluff on such a board? I need 14% equity to call. villain is 13/6 over 150 hands
  • 2 replies
    • dubadal
      Joined: 05.09.2008 Posts: 263
      With 13/6 he would most likely raise AK preflop. Also, most suited connectors are out of his range, so we are down to him holding a pocket 22-99. If he did in fact get in with suited :club: connectors or AT :club: , then well...

      I'd say you should check turn and take free river. If you hit FH then you are in position for a shove and will likely get a call, if he indeed had a flush from flop. If you don't, then you can re-evaluate river and fold if he over bets (equity is same).

      Pushing on turn might also be a good option, since it might make him fold a straight or weaker suited :club: . Even after his raise (which looks like he is pot committed) he might be able to release. We can also expect him to push river in most cases. So just calling is -ev imho.

      As played, I'd probably flip a coin on the river (literally), since there is another straight option on the table now besides obvious flush, but we are kind of pot-comitted and villain would push with any two to win or get value.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      easy call getting these odds.
      His most likely hand is 55/TT/JJ that spot and sometimes flushes. Don´t see him having AK, since 13/6 would either raise that pf or limp/raise and he may easily go with his hand on the river, since he can´t really c/f
      I´d personally would shove on the turn to stack his two pair or sets before ugly river card comes and you either fold better hand or you don´t get value from worse hands