[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 AJs FD on flop

    • jozata
      Joined: 30.07.2008 Posts: 646
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      CO (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A, J.
      MP2 raises to $0.85, MP3 folds, Hero calls $0.85, BU calls $0.85, 2 folds, BB folds.

      Flop: ($2.9) 7, 9, 6 (3 players)
      MP2 checks, Hero bets $2.00, BU raises to $8.90, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $24.97, BU calls $16.07.

      Turn: ($52.84) J (2 players)

      River: ($52.84) J (2 players)

      Final Pot: $52.84.

      Villain-unknown.Not sure if I have any FE if I shove and my equity sucks vs 2 pairs/sets/straights.Is shoving here a mistake?
  • 3 replies
    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      I agree on the fact that we don't have any FE once he makes that a big of a raise.

      Because we have the nut flush draw we can expect to get it in vs a few combos of lower fd

      Board: 7:spade: 9:spade: 6:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    38.44%  38.10%   0.34% { AsJs }
      MP3    61.56%  61.22%   0.34% { JJ-99, 77-66, T8s, 97s, 76s, KsQs }

      I think this is the tightiest range we can give me and we can expect him to have and he can always some more combos imo that will give us a few more equity points.

      If we expect to not have any FE we can treat his raise as a direct shove against which we would need ~ 44% equity to call profitably so it depends on how many other combos you can fit in his range.

      I don't like calling because I dont want to be forced my hand on the turn and we can expect him to shove as always, though I don't know if the implieds would make this play a good one.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      problem is that you have there too much equity to b/f and consider he would sometimes get all-in smt like TT or K, Q high flushdraws I´d also bet/shove flop
      This way you at least see the showdown and dot have to c/f turn ui
    • EmmaDauwe
      Joined: 10.05.2010 Posts: 1,370
      Just too count for myself. And practise the ranges.
      Speler 1: 47,556% 47,180% 0,751% 52,069% AsJs
      Speler 2: 52,444% 52,069% 0,751% 47,180% QQ-99, 77-66, AsKs, AsQs, AsTs, As9s, KQs, QJs, JsTs, T9s, Ts8s, 97s+, 5s4s, 97o

      So yea, you'll have to get it in. This is a pretty wide range and above a tight rage, so I think your good.

      But on the other hand, I think he will just shove this. And then you're in pretty bad shape. Don't think he will shove TT, JJ, QQ.

      Speler 1: 70,367% 69,954% 0,826% 29,219% 99, 77-66, AsKs, AsQs, AsTs, JsTs, Ts8s, 5s4s
      Speler 2: 29,633% 29,219% 0,826% 69,954% AsJs