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[NL2-NL10] NL5 SH - AQ TP, missed draws and overbet

    • luizsilveira
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Howdy ho.

      Villain is tight aggressive, 13/10

      Full Tilt - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      SB: $6.22
      BB: $5.32
      UTG: $8.95
      Hero (CO): $12.97
      BTN: $5.32

      SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero has A:spade: Q:club:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.16, fold, SB calls $0.14, fold

      Flop: ($0.37, 2 players) 7:club: T:club: 3:heart:
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.25, SB calls $0.25

      Turn: ($0.87, 2 players) Q:heart:
      SB bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.75

      River: ($2.37, 2 players) 2:diamond:
      SB bets $3.00, Hero...?

      I took the whole time bank on this river. I thought he could play a set like that, but then I thought he must have been worried of the flush draw and would have raised flop. QQ was very unlikely considering the pre-flop call. Then I saw the missed draws and thought he could bluff them, and his play could make sense on a hearts draw. But the odds are, of course, bad.

      So... would a call here be reasonable?


      edit: oh, of course, also considering villain, combos like QT or T7 wouldn't make sense at all.

      The thing is also: that complete blank on the river is an awful card for him to bluff, isn't it?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello luizsilveira,

      As you understand we mainly beat only bluff there, which includes some missed draws. So basically it's pretty hard Call on river and without really good reads I might even prefer folding unless I have seen his play more.

      And with the words that he is tight/aggressive it's hard to say how he does play and either with the VPIP/PFR it's not much to do. :( Basically I could say that there might be spots where I might even Call but not with those basic reads/stats.

      Best regards.