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[NL2-NL10] KK HU preflop

    • factorIR
      factorIR
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.01.2008 Posts: 93
      MP1:
      $79.13
      Hero:
      $10

      0.25/0.50 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K:heart: , K:diamond: . MP3 posts a blind of $0.50.
      2 folds, MP1 raises to $2.00, 5 folds, Hero raises to $6.00, MP1 calls $4.00.

      Flop: ($12.75) 8:club: , A:spade: , Q:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $4 (All-In)

      Should I push here? Is there an option to raise less because we were HU?
  • 10 replies
    • frzl
      frzl
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.04.2006 Posts: 9,876
      you should push it preflop because you are commited anyway :)
      the way you played it there is no alternative to a flop push
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      • 21.01.2008, 01:59
      • This post has been edited 3 time(s), it was last edited by xylere: 22.01.2008 00:52.
      Our equity against TT+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo ~ 70%
      Our equity against TT+, AJs+, AJo+ (for tight players, who doesn`t raise with KQ from MP) ~ 68%

      There are two ways we can play the hand (obviously, we play this hand till the end no matter what the flop brings):

      a) reraise 3x -> push flop
      b) push pre-flop

      EV = 0.2 * 2$ + 0.8 * (0.7*10 - 0.3*10) = 0.4 + 3.2 (2.88) = + 3.6 (+ 3.28)
      EV = 0.4 * 2$ + 0.6 * (0.7*10 - 0.3*10) = 0.8 + 2.4 (2.16) = + 3.2 (+ 2.96)
      EV = 0.6 * 2$ + 0.4 * (0.7*10 - 0.3*10) = 1.2 + 1.6 (1.44) = + 2.8 (+ 2.64)

      hometask: figure out which play is more profitable and explain why :D

      hint: number in brackets are for 68% equity case.
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      Originally posted by factorIR
      Is there an option to raise less because we were HU?
      this is quite freaky question, btw)

      For instance, if you bet 2$ and you opponent pushes, you will have to call even if he shows you AQ or QQ (before you made a call) :D
    • factorIR
      factorIR
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.01.2008 Posts: 93
      • 21.01.2008, 02:19
      • This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by factorIR: 21.01.2008 02:20.
      Actually I was talking about preflop action. I wasn't clear enough.

      Will try to solve your task tomorrow :)
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      • 21.01.2008, 02:27
      • This post has been edited 2 time(s), it was last edited by xylere: 21.01.2008 02:28.
      Originally posted by factorIR
      Actually I was talking about preflop action. I wasn't clear enough.

      Will try to solve your task tomorrow :)
      then my task contains an answer to your pre-flop question) try it, its pretty easy)
    • factorIR
      factorIR
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.01.2008 Posts: 93
      I just don't get it. Or maybe it is not so simple to calculate.

      1.
      I push pre-flop:
      EV = 0.4 * 2$ + 0.6 * (0.7*10 - 0.3*10) = 0.8 + 2.4 (2.16) = + 3.2 (+ 2.96)


      Because second part of expression is positive I really want that he calls my push. If he calls 60% of the time EV = 3.2$. This part is clear.

      2.
      So we decided to just call his pre-flop bet.
      Now flop comes and more information is available.

      In general we have two options here:

      2a)
      We can push.
      He will call us only if he has made hand. To calculate EV here we must determine in probability that he has made hand and he doesn't beat us.

      2b)
      We can wait and induce his c-bet and than push. He has still option to fold his hand because he is getting 1.9:1 and we have same problem as in 2a.

      But if he will call our push 60% of the time pre-flop this is probably best option.
    • Utahmar
      Utahmar
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 2,414
      Is it for sure the 68% ? In the brackets its 70-30.. I dont wanna stick my nose into it...
    • Utahmar
      Utahmar
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 2,414
      • 21.01.2008, 18:19
      • This post has been edited 3 time(s), it was last edited by Utahmar: 21.01.2008 18:36.
      The more cases you push preflop, the more EV you get. If im right ...

      So the second part is your equity ( by 70-30% ). the 0.8 is the call percent by opponent the 0.2 * 2 is fold 20%.

      But this is one case, preflop push, all 3, just different % on opponent call ?
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      • 21.01.2008, 18:49
      • This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by xylere: 21.01.2008 18:53.
      But this is one case, preflop push, all 3, just different % on opponent call ?


      well, this is called the fold equity :) and the bottom line is when our fold equity increases our EV decreases. Therefore, we are not interested in increasing our fold equity (read pushing), BUT ! we assume that he will call our bet on flop. To make this assumption work we have to make him commited. In our case we offer him 4:1 odds to call, that actually supports our assumption -> he will have to call in the most of the cases.

      So, in terms of EV most profitable scenario for us is to bet the maximum ammount he will call for sure (trying to minimize our fold equity), at the same time making him commited postflop.

      So in our case he will be commited if we offer him 4:1 pot odds postflop. Therefore, we have to raise 3x pre-flop (the minimum FE we can afford)

      We don`t evaluate the flop, no matter what it brings, since it can not affect our decision anyhow. we are mathematically commited anyway.
    • factorIR
      factorIR
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.01.2008 Posts: 93
      • 21.01.2008, 20:46
      • This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by factorIR: 21.01.2008 20:49.
      Thanks for your effort helping us xylere! This is really great thinking. Now it is so clear and easy to understand. I tend to complicate things too much. I will need to make a lot of thinking before I will be able to come up with solutions like this one.