How to beat NL10 FR + stats

    • Letsdothisish
      Letsdothisish
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.02.2009 Posts: 995
      Hey everyone,

      I've been playing on NL10 FR for about a month and a half now. In the beginning it went quite ok as you can see on the graph below. But last few days/weeks it's been going downhill.



      I'm constantly trying to find any leaks and study my hands, watch videos and implement new moves. I always try to think in ranges of my opponent. I also try to adapt to my opponent based on stats, I play differently against regulars to get max value and obviously differently against fish. I try to 3bet a lot of players who have +85% fold to 3bet. Still it doesn't appear to be working that well. Here are my stats. I personally think they look pretty solid:



      I should maybe checkraise a bit more, but I don't think that's a very big leak what caused me my losses. WHat bothers me more is I have a cbet% of 79% on flop (which I think is ok) but my turn% is 49%. I think it's logical because I cbet a lot against limp/callers but give up on turn and a lot of players on these stakes play fit/fold. But I've noticed some regs are taking advantage of this and float me a lot.

      Personally I think the problem is I lose way too many big pots with good hands. I can't let go of nuts type of hands that aren't the absolute nuts. Normally a session would go like this: I steadily win pots, try to make the best decisions, try to pick up dead money preflop and think all is going great. Then I get involved in a big pot with a big hand but my opponent even has a bigger hand, ruining all my steady winnings and getting me back to square 1 (or below). Here are the big hands I lost yesterday for instance:

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)

      Known players:
      MP1:
      $10.00
      MP2:
      $10.25
      MP3:
      $4.23
      CO:
      $10.28
      BU:
      $10.00
      SB (Hero):
      $10.35
      BB:
      $10.00


      Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A.
      MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $0.40, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.30, BB folds, MP2 calls $0.90.

      Flop: ($2.7) 8, T, 9 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.00, MP2 calls $2.00.

      Turn: ($6.7) 6 (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP2 bets $4.24, Hero raises to $7.05, MP2 calls $2.71.

      River: ($20.7) J (2 players)


      Final Pot: $20.7.
      Results follow:

      Hero shows a pair of aces(A A).
      MP2 shows a straight, queen high(Q A).

      MP2 wins with a straight, queen high(Q A).



      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)

      Known players:
      BB:
      $10.00
      MP1:
      $15.98
      MP2:
      $11.91
      MP3:
      $14.15
      CO:
      $9.56
      BU:
      $1.96
      SB (Hero):
      $10.00


      Preflop: Hero is SB with T, T.
      2 folds, MP3 calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, BB folds, MP3 calls $0.50.

      Flop: ($1.3) A, T, 3 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.70, MP3 calls $0.70.

      Turn: ($2.7) 6 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.00, MP3 calls $2.00.

      River: ($6.7) 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $6.70, MP3 calls $6.70.

      Final Pot: $20.1.
      Results follow:

      Hero shows three of a kind, tens(T T).
      MP3 shows a flush, ace high(7 A).

      MP3 wins with a flush, ace high(7 A).



      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      MP1:
      $10.15
      MP2:
      $10.00
      MP3:
      $15.78
      CO:
      $17.55
      BU (Hero):
      $10.00
      SB:
      $13.54
      BB:
      $3.15
      UTG1:
      $11.03
      UTG2:
      $4.66


      Preflop: Hero is BU with 8, 8.
      UTG1 folds, UTG2 raises to $0.40, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $0.40, MP3 calls $0.40, CO folds, Hero calls $0.40, 2 folds, BB folds.

      Flop: ($1.75) 8, 2, T (4 players)
      UTG2 checks, MP2 bets $0.30, MP3 calls $0.30, Hero raises to $1.80, UTG2 folds, MP2 raises to $3.30, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $9.60, MP2 calls $6.30.

      Turn: ($21.25) 4 (2 players)


      River: ($21.25) 5 (2 players)


      Final Pot: $21.25.
      Results follow:

      Hero shows three of a kind, eights(8 8).
      MP2 shows three of a kind, tens(T T).

      MP2 wins with three of a kind, tens(T T).



      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      BB:
      $10.00
      UTG2:
      $3.50
      MP1:
      $9.85
      MP2:
      $11.89
      MP3:
      $5.00
      CO (Hero):
      $10.15
      BU:
      $3.20
      SB:
      $13.71


      Preflop: Hero is CO with 8, 8.
      UTG2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.40, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.40, 3 folds, 2 folds, BB folds.

      Flop: ($0.95) J, T, 7 (2 players)
      MP1 checks, Hero bets $0.60, MP1 calls $0.60.

      Turn: ($2.15) 9 (2 players)
      MP1 checks, Hero bets $1.50, MP1 calls $1.50.

      River: ($5.15) T (2 players)
      MP1 bets $3.67, Hero calls $3.67.

      Final Pot: $12.49.
      Results follow:

      Hero shows a straight, jack high(8 8).
      MP1 shows a full-house, nines full of tens(9 9).

      MP1 wins with a full-house, nines full of tens(9 9).


      I personally think my game is going great but i feel my losses are because of suckouts/coolers/fish who don't know what they're doing and stack me, etc.. Last few days I had KK against AA preflop to give another example.

      SOrry for the long post but what do you guys think of this? Is there a major leak in my game? Have I just dealing with variance here and should play on the way I'm playing? Your opinion would mean a lot to me. Thanks for reading.
  • 18 replies
    • peche025
      peche025
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2008 Posts: 1,387
      From what I see, your stats seems ok, 14/12 is a solid enough style for NL10/NL25 and 4bb/100 is an ok winrate.

      I would say 80% cb is too high, as you've said you are doing try to think in ranges, does this flop hit my perceived range? Does it hit my opponents? Try to already have a plan for the turn in your mind, if I cb this flop and he calls:

      For example

      Hero raises T :club: J :club: btn weak reg calls

      Flop 9 :club: 4 :diamond: 3 :heart:

      We decide to cb this board as it is super dry and unlikely to hit our opponents range, we know if he calls our cb his range will often be 55-88 9x, sometimes pure floats, and we plan on cbing the turn if any of the following card hit:
      any :club: , T, J, Q, or 8 maybe even 7 and K which give us gut shots and even a A as it's a good scare card. This is more than 50% or turn cards.

      Basically think about back door options and don't cbet with air.

      You could probably steal more on the button I think most regs have a steal percentage of about 50%, I had the stat 'fold big blind to steal' in my HUD, you will see ppl who's stats are 80%+ against these ppl I think you can and should be opening and 2 cards on the button either, 2x or 2.5x it will be +ev because they fold too often. And even the worst hands T4o can still hit something postflop.

      Just keep watching videos, thinking about hands, doing session reviews and you will get better with time, it's only practice + hard work.
    • antonio47211
      antonio47211
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 129
      can't and won't comment on stats, but all tje hands you posted (maybe except one) are standard badbeat hands, nothing special. Suck it up and move on.
    • BadeaCelRau
      BadeaCelRau
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.10.2010 Posts: 2,122
      I think your last 5k hands, where you lost most, are a downswing so don't worry. Try to not think about it and play your normal game, quit when you feel frustrated and come back fresh. It should pass soon.

      Edit : Definately cbet less. 79% cbet asks for float/steals. 60-66% is optimal
    • Alficor1
      Alficor1
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2010 Posts: 7,291
      Cbet less, 79% is too much.
    • tokyoaces
      tokyoaces
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2009 Posts: 1,883
      Like most micro players you are leaking on the SB. It's a huge leak and addressed constantly in articles and videos.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Steal more from BU and less from SB, resteal a bit wider, cbet less especially vs station when you have complete air.
    • scscpoker
      scscpoker
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.06.2010 Posts: 121
      Did you try running some filters in HEM? (button above graph)

      For example bluffs in 3bet pot, I see u have big cbet percentage there, but maybe you are already doing it only with strong range QQ+ AK: hand strength High Card, 3bet = true, flop made cbet = true

      Also check for example bluffs after steal: prf=true, exclude all playable hands, position CO BU and SB (individually), hand str. high card, cbet = true

      Or simply VPIP=true and select individual hands -> small pockets, SCs, small aces, trash

      (Also, I think u can afford to lose up to 50bb per 100 hands from SB and 100bb per 100 hands from BB when VPIP, so losing 30bb per 100 hands from BB with trashy hand u would fold will make profit, thats just theoretically, no need to try some fancy adjusting)

      - By the way, post graph with Showdown winnings and stats on winrates from positions too.

      But right now I am still not beating nl10 more than BE so I cant help much more :/
    • Letsdothisish
      Letsdothisish
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.02.2009 Posts: 995
      Thanks for the comments!

      80% cbet is still too high? I actually had about 90% on NL2 and NL4 but like pointed out by peche025 I started to think about ranges of opponent and backdoor options. I've heard there still are too many people folding against cbets on the micro's, so I keep it as high as possible. I also think it's profitable to cbet all of the time against opponents who fold to cbet on flop +80% so I nearly always bluff here, maybe that's why the number is so high.

      I also don't want to lose value against players when I have a hand, opponents will fold more easily I think against my value hands if I cbet less. Still I think I'll try to get it to 70-73% or something.

      Tokyoaces, with leak in the SB you mean I steal too many form that spot? Or I fold to easily? What's a good restealing range in the blinds?

      Thanks for the tips scscpoker I'll try analysing my stats from different positions soon.
    • Letsdothisish
      Letsdothisish
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.02.2009 Posts: 995
      And oh yeah the reason why my SB steal% is so high is because I steal any 2 against giant nits or people who fold to steal +85% of the time. I'm actually kind of a nit in the SB because like everyone I hate playing out of position. But there are just so many players who fold to often against a steal.

      Interesting about the 50% steal range from BU, that's a lot of difference with my stealing range of 33%. My range is already pretty loose, but I never thought about stealing with any 2 against blinds who are +80%. But I guess it doesn't happen that often that the 2 blinds both fold so much, and I can't steal any 2 if only one of the blinds are so nitty. But I'll work on this, thanks!
    • Alficor1
      Alficor1
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2010 Posts: 7,291
      Originally posted by rvvrecke
      80% cbet is still too high? I actually had about 90% on NL2 and NL4 but like pointed out by peche025 I started to think about ranges of opponent and backdoor options. I've heard there still are too many people folding against cbets on the micro's, so I keep it as high as possible. I also think it's profitable to cbet all of the time against opponents who fold to cbet on flop +80% so I nearly always bluff here, maybe that's why the number is so high.
      Well you have to look at players "fold to cbet" stats.. Against a guy who plays pure ABC poker and never bluff check raises, you can cbet every flop.

      And also dont cbet wet esp low boards into more than 1 player (and even against only one i might just check fold if i have just overcards without any draw).
    • Letsdothisish
      Letsdothisish
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.02.2009 Posts: 995
      I actually almost never bluff multiway unless I have position and am on a draw or I'm certain the others don't have anything and I still have outs. Otherwise I only bet when I have something.

      Can't we cbet lower pairs or A high type of hands which we normally would fold on drawy boards do give them bad odds to chase the draw and fold when it would get there?
    • tokyoaces
      tokyoaces
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2009 Posts: 1,883
      Originally posted by rvvrecke
      And oh yeah the reason why my SB steal% is so high is because I steal any 2 against giant nits or people who fold to steal +85% of the time.
      Fold to Steal means they fold to people who raise from the stealing positions. It has nothing to do with the SB at all.

      In any case your assertion and your stats do not match up. Your Raise 1st in is only 42% and not 100%. If you cut out even half of those hands you are cold calling with then your VP$IP from the SB would be more in line with your other stats. (ie. tightest from the SB and going up until you are loosest from the button)

      If you fixed that one leak alone you would have a positive winrate.
    • Letsdothisish
      Letsdothisish
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.02.2009 Posts: 995
      Originally posted by tokyoaces
      Originally posted by rvvrecke
      And oh yeah the reason why my SB steal% is so high is because I steal any 2 against giant nits or people who fold to steal +85% of the time.
      Fold to Steal means they fold to people who raise from the stealing positions. It has nothing to do with the SB at all.

      In any case your assertion and your stats do not match up. Your Raise 1st in is only 42% and not 100%. If you cut out even half of those hands you are cold calling with then your VP$IP from the SB would be more in line with your other stats. (ie. tightest from the SB and going up until you are loosest from the button)

      If you fixed that one leak alone you would have a positive winrate.
      Are you absolutely sure SB isn't calculated as a stealing position? As a matter of fact in the stats with steal (total) it also says SB next to the CO and BU, so I'm not entirely sure about this.

      I can't figure out what you mean exactly by my raise is 42% and not 100%, why would it be 100%? And about the coldcalling this is the 3% call open you're referring too right?I maybe have an explanation for this since I only coldcall low PP's to setmine or 77-JJ against tight players or early raisers to setmine. Should I let go of setmining low PP's against opponents with a wider range like from the CO or BU? Or what do you suggest I should get rid of in the SB? Thanks.
    • tokyoaces
      tokyoaces
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2009 Posts: 1,883
      Originally posted by rvvrecke
      Are you absolutely sure SB isn't calculated as a stealing position?
      You're right. HEM is fail.

      (It's the PT3 default too, but I just created new stats for the two different situations. Once again custom stats FTW.)

      Anyway, just remember that you are OOP for the rest of the hand in the SB. So adjust your range and your steal raise size. If your Fold to Steal stat is including all of those positions its not going to be as accurate so just be aware of that.
    • Letsdothisish
      Letsdothisish
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.02.2009 Posts: 995
      -18/100bb in SB & -48/100bb in BB

      Doesn't look so bad after all I guess.

      Weird, all my graphs from different positions except for the blinds go up in a straight line, except for the BU. Still have 8/100bb in BU though, but in the CO an astonishing 22/100bb. I figured this would be the other way around. Guess this is because I get more resteals from BU than CO and maybe I should call more IP instead of folding with more marginal hands.
    • peche025
      peche025
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2008 Posts: 1,387
      BTN should be the most profitable seat, you have absolute position, so can 3b more often in this spot and steal more often than other seats.

      Loss rates from blinds are very good. I think your steal % from SB is fine, just keep doing what your doing, find peoples weaknesses and exploit them, if someone folds too much to steals then definitely steal 100% until they adapt
    • roopopper
      roopopper
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2010 Posts: 4,289
      Are you losing more on non showdown or went to showdown?

      I have to say your stats look pretty good to me, if anything a bit on the nitty side.
      maybe its just a downswing?

      Roo
    • Letsdothisish
      Letsdothisish
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.02.2009 Posts: 995
      Originally posted by roopopper
      Are you losing more on non showdown or went to showdown?

      I have to say your stats look pretty good to me, if anything a bit on the nitty side.
      maybe its just a downswing?

      Roo
      My showdown winnings are going steadily up while my non showdown winnings go steadily down, I guess this is normal? And imo it's not really that nitty, because it's FR.