MSS set mining?

  • 7 replies
    • TiciBoy
      TiciBoy
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.01.2010 Posts: 1,235
      Originally posted by genesispaul
      how does anyone feel on limping small pairs? on EP/MP?
      Most of the time I don't play MSS, but did play enough hands to have some idea of it. :)
      I don't think it is worth it... Only time I go for set value is when there is a raise + (at least) one caller and I have a small pocket pair in late position - Then I call and give up on my hand if I don't hit. You won't see many flops if you limp small pockets from early positions. People will see what you are doing and won't give you free flops (at least not anywhere at NL10+).
    • genesispaul
      genesispaul
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2011 Posts: 17
      thanks for the speedy response! :f_p:
    • TiciBoy
      TiciBoy
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.01.2010 Posts: 1,235
      Originally posted by genesispaul
      thanks for the speedy response! :f_p:
      NP, hope it hellped. :P

      It's just how I look at this...maybe someone will advise you differently.
    • Classified181
      Classified181
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.03.2011 Posts: 111
      set mine online everytime you know someone has raised with AA, you'll hit your set like 33+% ;)
    • roopopper
      roopopper
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2010 Posts: 4,289
      Originally posted by Classified181
      set mine online everytime you know someone has raised with AA, you'll hit your set like 33+% ;)
      lol this seems happens to me everytime i have AA :P

      roo
    • Akcus
      Akcus
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.12.2009 Posts: 156
      EP is under-set mining!
    • Jimanyjerk
      Jimanyjerk
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 366
      Wow, what started as a simple explanation has turned into a small essay. The worst part is, I'm not sure if any of it's right. What I wrote might help you make a decision however! It's in spoiler due to length.


      Not exactly a pro by any standards but my understanding on set mining is as such.

      you're 1/8 to make a set with any pocket pair. This is important because it sets a basis for the implied odds necessary to make your hand. Presuming a perfect world, you limp with pocket pairs 9 times, 8 times you miss and fold without losing another cent, time number 9 you flop your set and bust your opponent. You've lost 8 big blinds (bbs) limp/folding, you need to win at least 8 bbs from your opponent on the 9th limp (where you flopped a set) to make it break even. This is once again a perfect world assuming the set always wins and you always double up on your opponent. In the perfect world, if we win 10bb from our opponent, we've lost 8 bbs limp folding and won 10, leaving 2 bb profit. Hellz Yeah. you need implied odds of 1/8 in order to break even, therefore for your 1 bb limp your opponent needs a stack of at least 8 bb available to you in order for you to break even, everything greater than that is profit :D

      Now to the real world.

      As a MSS player, you generally have a stack no larger than 50 bb available to you. mostly, you'll be between 40 bb and 30 bb. This is important because you're most likely only going to have 40 bb or less and that is the Most you can earn from doubling up on your opponent.

      Here's where I'm not as certain because it becomes filled with variables. If you limp frequently from MP and EP you're going to be raised more often from people in position. Whether or not you can call that raise is to be discussed shortly. Assuming you fold if you are raised, you will need higher implied odds because we are missing more opportunities to flop a set. If you are going to be raised on 50% of your limping hands (forcing you to fold, I hope that doesn't happen to you!) then you will need to limp twice as many times to flop your set. this means your required implied odds double as well because you've limp/folded 16 times and therefore have to make at least 16 bbs to break even.

      You also probably shouldn't call raises behind your limp for set value too often because of implied odds. if you limp for 1 bb and then an opponent, who has you covered, raises the bet to 4 bb, you need to call 3bb more. If you started the hand with 40 bb, you now have 39 bb from your limp. You need to call 3 bb for a chance to win 39 bb, that's odds of 13 to one. It seems like you have the odds to call, but sometimes you won't double up because your opponent will miss the flop and sometimes your opponent will actually stack you with a higher set, flush, straight, etc. Now instead of always winning with your set you are sometimes LOSING big pots as well. This doesn't happen very frequently at all, but it means you need higher implied odds to offset those times when you either don't make enough on your set, or lose all of your money against a better hand.

      LONG WINDED CONCLUSION!

      If you really really want to play pocket pairs like this, I would suggest following the BSS' rule of Call 20. If you have 20+ times the size of the bet in either your or your opponent's stack, then you can profitably call. This basically means that when you enter the situation you have implied odds of at least 1/20, this should offset the number of times you either make nothing, get raised out, or lose your stack to a better hand. This goes for either limping or raising as far as I'm concerned, but I really would not be surprised if someone proves me wrong :f_biggrin:

      With a 40bb stack size, you can, based on this previously discussed theory, profitably limp. You will have spent 1 bb, and you have a chance at winning about 39 more if everything goes really well. raising isn't very good because at best with a 40bb stack you have spent 3bb for a chance to win 37 more, or just over 1/12. You may lose to better hands or get 3 bet out too many times to salvage this situation. Similarly calling after a raise behind or flat calling also opens you to this low implied odds problem. In my opinion, limp folding is the only one that has a true possibility of being profitable in the long term. It is, however, IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER that this strategy has problems.

      A big danger in playing these hands occurs because you open yourself up to many post-flop situations where players lose money quickly. I believe it's left out of the MSS both because its profitability is stunted by the shorter stack size, and its usage will open newer players (like me) to the possibility of losing tons of money with mis-played pocket pairs that have little chance to improve if beaten (the only two outers I see hit are against me :f_mad: .)

      The final thing to remember is that all of this is theory that I'm spewing from memory which means it's liable to be incorrect or inapplicable to the MSS strategy according to more experienced players. I personally hope that some pro player comes along and definitively proves me wrong because when I used to play BSS I LOVED SET MINING, and 2 of my biggest wins while playing MSS have occured after I doubled up to 60+ BB and then got lucky with a pocket pair and doubled up again.


      Either way, be careful! I hope you have fun whatever strategy you choose and good luck at the tables!

      G