downswings & Luck factor?

    • ProfiNub
      ProfiNub
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.05.2011 Posts: 49
      Okey so started playing few days ago on FTP the first two days i was doing pretty decent had aswell solid profit but now.... last 3 days its getting worse and worse missing straight draws, flush draws, gutshot draws all the time, getting beaten by a worse hand all the time because he obviously catches card on the turn or river. so my question is... Is this normal?.. i could go on and on just like the cards were haunting me.. and what do u guys do when this happens and especially when it happens pretty often..? im the last days so frustrated i know i can play pretty decent but this is just killing me..

      And yeah im playing mainly Sit N Gos.
  • 15 replies
    • Bigniux
      Bigniux
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.01.2009 Posts: 2,098
      Keep playing, since you played only few days, i guess it's like 10-20 sngs? Swings(if it's a swing) can last for hundred or more games :)
    • purplefizz
      purplefizz
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.03.2008 Posts: 4,508
      hi profinub,

      in my opinion, variance as well as handling tilt is really just one of the toughest things that every good poker player needs to deal with. all players (even the best ones) are not exempt from getting bad beats. ive seen some of our most experienced members like TwiceT make some great posts about this in his blog about how variance is underestimated by most players. your sample size is likely still very small and is probably not yet enough to make conclusions about.

      If you want to read something about it, here's an article about upswings and downswings in poker.
      However, keep in mind that at the beginning, bigger losses are attributed to misplayed hands rather than bad luck. so i encourage you to still keep striving to improve your game.

      hope that helps you, :)

      Wendy
    • ProfiNub
      ProfiNub
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.05.2011 Posts: 49
      @Bigniux : i've played already about 50 SNGS , i was 1st 2 times,2nd 1 time, than few times betwenn 3-6 place.. and about 10 times i was in the final table


      @purplefizz i don't think im that bad so i do believe i know the difference betwenn losing hand because of bad play or losing a hand because of being unlucky i give u an example.. i don't remember the hand exactly but it was smth like that

      im somewhere on late position with KQ suited, so i reraised to 3 bb pre-flop because not many ppl were playing that hand so i think good decision to raise.. so i think 2 guys calls.. so the pot is like 400.

      the flop was like 3 7 K (no flush draw etc..) the first guy to act bets 100 i think and the guy infront of him reraises after while to all in.. And im like what? do he have Pocket Kings? i doubt it.. because he didnt reraised me preflop.. (thats what i thought) so i was like most likely he has K J or K 10, so he shouldn't be able to beat me okey.. so i decided to call , he shoves K 10 so im like good should win this one. and the turn is 10 ..... im like come on really? don't remember the river.. so that was the first sign of being pissed off a bit today. i could tell u many examples or stories how i got beaten by a worse hand.. Oh and those hands like 58o 37o 310o and so on (i fold them 99% of the time) and look i could have had Full house after flop.. thats kinda annoying aswell.
    • Helipacter
      Helipacter
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.07.2010 Posts: 474
      Yup, this happens; you'll probably have worse beats in the future, sorry to say. I've been playing less than a year and I've had some awfully bad beats, but some great sessions too.

      Reading the psychology articles on this site is a good start. Also, if you want "a real book" that goes into the "that side" of things, look at either "The Elements of Poker", by Tommy Angelo (reviewed here by PS's own GodlikeRoy), or "The Poker Mindset" by Ian Taylor & Matthew Hilger.

      Neither book will tell you how to play a certain hand a certain way (there are enough strategy articles on here for the time being), but instead how to approach the game.

      To quote David Sklanksy: "it's all one big session", remember that when it looks like your night will be a loser. Oh, and try not to chase losses.

      Best of luck!
    • belayd
      belayd
      Global
      Joined: 17.03.2011 Posts: 1,021
      Originally posted by ProfiNub
      i know the difference betwenn losing hand because of bad play or losing a hand because of being unlucky
      Not even the most experienced pros always know that for sure. That's why they analyze their own play and find leaks in their game all the time.

      The worst thing you can possibly do is get overconfident and start believing that you always lose because you're unlucky rather than because you misplayed a hand. It's very, very easy to misplay a hand, or hundreds of similar hands, in a way that you don't notice until you do intensive analysis and maybe get help from a second pair of eyes.

      One of the strategy articles here contains the following phrase: "There's no such thing as a downswing." The implication is that ALL losses are caused by your own mistakes. I think that's a little bit extreme, but very likely a high percentage of ANYONE's losses are caused by their own mistakes. It's something always to keep in mind.
    • purplefizz
      purplefizz
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.03.2008 Posts: 4,508
      well, its good that you were able to get the chips in when you were ahead, but sadly, getting outdrawn is just a part of life, and im sure will happen again in the future. i didnt mean to imply that you're a bad player at all. just that everyone has room to improve (even the topmost pros).

      i think theres some really good advice in this thread. :f_love: helipacter, im reading those books myself atm as well. its helping me a lot.
      i agree with u belayd, having a second opinion on hands can be a really valuable tool as well. i know its helped me a lot and in fact something i shld start doing again. profinub, if u havent discovered it yet, we have a forum on hand evaluations that you might want to take a look at :) . hope the cards run better for you next time.
    • dooleslovs
      dooleslovs
      Platinum
      Joined: 17.02.2011 Posts: 481
      I know how you feel, maybe knowing that you are not the one could comfort you? Yesterday I had sick session, my pocket KK went in AI 5 times all of them ws AK or AQ (what a great spot) and lost them all. Good news is that it can happen only 1 time out of 411 so I should be safe for a year now. Also had some TPTK v TP situations and villian cought two pair, lost AA v QQ, set of TT could not stand up against AK on AT5r flop and some other not so dramatic hands. So to sum up -10BI below EI. But I am quite happy about that session becouse my play was not bad, I used to tilt so hard month or so ago, but now I just care about good dissions about things I can control. I have decant bankrol I did not busto, so I will recover those loses. I play NL10 rush, about 5k hands yesterday.
    • Helipacter
      Helipacter
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.07.2010 Posts: 474
      @Purplefizz: I have EoP and I've got a lot of love for it. I find it's best read after you've been 1-outed in a 15BB pot for the third time in a session ;)

      Seriously though, the psychology side of things should be "the priority" for a noob to work on; strategy will come by looking at the hand eval forums & reading articles. The play on the micros is often "counter-strat" so it's best to get yo mentals in check before you click "login" I think, otherwise you're a "Tilt-ATM" waiting to happen.

      A good thing to do is to set yourself a "stop loss" limit, or a definite timeframe of play. And of course, stick to them!
    • ProfiNub
      ProfiNub
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.05.2011 Posts: 49
      so. i woke up drink a cofee and wanted to play some tourneys so i played three Rush tournaments on FTP.

      in the first Rush tournament i was 20th and about 40 ppl left. had Aces reraised preflop alot 1 guy called me flop is 9 3 Q (no flush draw) i bet pot a guy reraises allin. I call he shows pocket Kings so should be easy win again and note it was a bank for 20k because i had 10k and the other guy about the same. Guess what Ofcourse he catches King on the river.... Im like ok... AGAIN!!!, in next rush tournament i got eliminated after another bullsht .. aka i had pocket Eights flop 5 7 5 i bet pot guy calls, turn is J and i doubt he has Jack so i bet pot again guy reraises allin i call he has 7Q so he has two pairs and i have two better pairs, AND GUESS WHAT OBVIOUSLY HE CATCHES that 7 on river. so thats second time in a row second time in last 10 mins.. i mean come on.. did i played that hand bad or what? i doubt it i think i played it well but Luck decided to be not on my side again... allright and the third rush tournament got eliminated after another unlucky board (but i agree this time it wasn't so unlucky as the two times before..) i had AKs in late position two guys all in i call. 1 guy has pocket Sixes and another AQo so im in favor , flop brings dunno what cards exactly but doesnt help anyone but i do hit a flush draw obviously it didnt came and i lost.

      So im kinda frustrated again..
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      Hey Profinub,

      You played the hands just fine, you got every single cent into the pot whilst you were holding a commanding lead. Just got to have a little word with the poker gods I think.

      Keep getting your money in good, keep owning your opponents, keep posting on the forum and I promise that it will turn around and your cashier will soon get very very full :)



      Pinky promise.
    • Helipacter
      Helipacter
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.07.2010 Posts: 474
      Originally posted by ProfiNub
      So im kinda frustrated again..
      [img]http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRT47h7y7M8sc6b8YNi0jX21l50V3C0xlLtmmrBiuMZ-e6xgK9P1g[/img]
    • ProfiNub
      ProfiNub
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.05.2011 Posts: 49
      Originally posted by pleno1
      Hey Profinub,

      You played the hands just fine, you got every single cent into the pot whilst you were holding a commanding lead. Just got to have a little word with the poker gods I think.

      Keep getting your money in good, keep owning your opponents, keep posting on the forum and I promise that it will turn around and your cashier will soon get very very full :)



      Pinky promise.
      Thanks for reply, But are u serious? so i did played the first two hands just fine 100%? If yes im glad to hear that.

      Edit : ok another update and last one i promise because i won't play today anymore.... Unbelievable how unlucky iam the last days.. just Unbelievable

      A5o dont remember my position but cheap enough to call it

      so nice flop for me A 5 3 (yeah possible that someone has a straight already but its unlikely that someone played 42o/s hand) so i check, because the guy who acts after me was aggresive preflop and there he goes aggresive after flop aswell so i call his bet turn is 6, doesnt change anything maybe that someone completed a straight but thats unlikely aswell. so i check again he bets again i raise him he calls, and the river screwed me again because those 2 outs for 6 to come is what just happened the river is another 6, which destroys my hand and if he has better kicker he will win, Oh yeah guess what his A8o is enough so he wins..... gg river, Im definitely taking a break now because the cards are still clearly haunting me :( (

      edit2: wow i thought nothing worse can happen to me today, I was wrong AKs vs AKo all in preflop both of us look at the board he gets 4 cards for nuts flush with his Ace:club: . So now i can take finally a break. I know im still a newbie in poker but honestly i feel really really unlucky during the last lets say 3-4 days. I will be glad for any reply
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      OFC I'm serious :f_cool:

      You get to see lots of hands in rush, I would personally look to fold marginal hands such as Ax, people play relatively nitty, so if you flop an ace, either they fold and you dont win much money, or you put money in the pot, you're called and they have you beat.

      Suited connectors can be good as long as you dont try to go all in if you hit 1 pair, suited connectors and pocket pairs have great implied odds where you can crack big cards/hands.

      Keep going, plucking away and eventually you will reap the rewards.
    • ProfiNub
      ProfiNub
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.05.2011 Posts: 49
      Originally posted by pleno1
      OFC I'm serious :f_cool:

      You get to see lots of hands in rush, I would personally look to fold marginal hands such as Ax, people play relatively nitty, so if you flop an ace, either they fold and you dont win much money, or you put money in the pot, you're called and they have you beat.

      Suited connectors can be good as long as you dont try to go all in if you hit 1 pair, suited connectors and pocket pairs have great implied odds where you can crack big cards/hands.

      Keep going, plucking away and eventually you will reap the rewards.
      this was in Sit N Gos, i play rush really rarely and after the three tournaments in rush before i haven't played them anymore so all those hands i posted later on are from SNG, i wouldn't play Ace with low kicker in Rush tournament.

      But just realised that it is possible to be that unlucky because i had a Royal Flush few days ago? so basicly the cards are going after me that much? too bad they don't offer a special bonus or smth if u get a Royal Flush :x
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      tbh in tournaments/sngs, chip prservation is so important for increasing fold equity when you get to the latter stages and so that you can get more chips when you double, limping with A5o because it will be cheap will be a recipe for disaster, keep playing solid, don't let it bother you.

      Keep posting hands on PS and we will keep replying and helping you as much as possible.