[NL2-NL10] nl10sh JQs

    • xero100
      Joined: 06.08.2009 Posts: 1,355
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($10.14)
      BB ($11.67)
      UTG ($5.64)
      Hero ($10.20)
      CO ($10)
      BTN ($22.02)

      Dealt to Hero J:club: Q:club:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, fold, SB calls $0.25, fold

      FLOP ($0.70) 4:club: T:club: K:diamond:

      SB checks, Hero bets $0.40, SB raises to $1.20, Hero calls $0.80

      TURN ($3.10) 4:club: T:club: K:diamond: 2:diamond:

      SB checks, Hero checks

      RIVER ($3.10) 4:club: T:club: K:diamond: 2:diamond: K:club:

      SB checks, Hero bets $2.32, SB raises to $7.54, Hero folds

      SB wins $7.23
  • 2 replies
    • luizsilveira
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Wow, I'd never fold there.

      You have the second nut flush. What are you afraid of? KT?

      I think w/ KT or TT or 44 (or even 22) he would have bet turn.

      With a flush he would have bet river or would lose ton of value with a Tx or even Kx checking behind.

      I see his river raise more as a "bluff" to scare you with the paired board. Maybe he has the A of clubs, or maybe he has Kx (KQ or even more KJ), which might make sense to check the turn.

      You have roughly 50/50 odds to call and I think there are enough worse hands in his range to justify a "call and make a note" attitude.

      Because of course it makes sense for him to raise flop w/ FD and check turn. But then he would have just owned you this time by putting you on FD as well and by knowing you'd bet the river. But I still think he has Kx and doesn't want to bet, get raised and face a difficult decision.

      Again, only my 2c, I'm curious to the see the real analysis too.

      If I'm bothering by commenting in your hands let me know, I just want to exchange some thoughts, fish as I might be :f_biggrin:
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello xero100,

      Basically while he is unknown we could either put him a very wide range or as well very tight range. Although I guess his play just doesn't make much sense. He can't be really holding a GS+FD while we have the JcQc. And either his play doesn't make that much sense, if he really had KT/44/TT, why didn't he bet the turn? But overall, I'd say I am as well Calling the river, while he may easily have even worse hands, starting from just trips and of course even at some spots maybe even worse flushes.

      Board: 4:club: T:club: K:diamond:  2:diamond:  K:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    60.61%  60.61%   0.00% { QcJc }
      UTG+1  39.39%  39.39%   0.00% { TT, 44, AKs, KTs+, Ac9c, AKo, KTo+ }

      And we only need like 30% equity, so therefore if we even remove few of the hands, I guess we can still manage to get the equity for a correct Call. And sometimes he might even turn his hand into bluff.

      Best regards.