[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL 25 AK vs passive fish

    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Full Tilt Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      saw flop

      Hero (UTG) ($26.33)
      MP ($25.65)
      Button ($9.83)
      SB ($27.16)
      BB ($28.50)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, A
      Hero bets $0.85, 3 folds, BB calls $0.60

      Flop: ($1.80) 4, 9, 4 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25

      Turn: ($4.30) A (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB calls $3

      River: ($10.30) 9 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero ???

      33/6 loose passive fish.

      I'm trying to figure out if villain is going to have a calling range composed of more than 50% worse hands.

      I think that besides 4x and 9x the only worse hands that are calling us are Ax type hands.

      Run a simulation and got this:


      Board: 4:club: 4:spade: 9:spade:  A:heart:  9:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    44.25%  41.59%   2.65% { A2s+, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 96s+, 64s, 54s, 43s, A5o+, J9o, T9o, 97o+ }
      MP3    55.75%  53.10%   2.65% { AdKc }


      And I put almost any Ax in his range which I think is unrealistic because we can expect him to fold worse than AT on the flop, don't see him peeling the flop with A3 of :diamond:

      So by this analysis I should check back river, what do you think?
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      33/6 should have there also a lot of times some kind of pp-s that might also call and if he doesn´t like to fold Ax hands then these would also call you down
      With AK I think it should be valuebet. Worse Ax hands, like AT and lower I would likely just get my free showdown
      I´d bet 4$ and expect to get called quite often any hand that has showdown value