HEM all-in EV line

    • outspan
      outspan
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.02.2010 Posts: 1,196
      So if I got it right, the all-in EV line in holdem manager is an indication of how good or bad I'm running in all-in situations: it's the graph of the winnings proportionate to my equity at the time I go all-in or, in other words, they are the "luck-adjusted" winnings for my all-ins.

      If so, I must be running pretty bad... over 1700 hands, my actual winnings at NL5 rush poker were -$5.23 while, not counting $1.72 in rakeback, they should have been +$4.40.

      But I should expect the all-in EV to get closer and closer to the actual winnings the more hands I play, right? As a rule of thumb, are the actual winnings and all-in EV lines still very far apart after 10k hands?
  • 36 replies
    • vmarqui
      vmarqui
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      Joined: 25.01.2010 Posts: 4,816
      EV shows nothing really. It's a closer approximation to your real winning rate, but it's still far away from it. so it isn't like "i should have won this much cuz EV says so"
      And 1700 is a very very very very small sample size, considering that poker is a very high variance game. you could be a very big loser and still win $20 on n5 i 1700 hands.

      If you really wanna improve and earn money, don't focus on it. even more, don't even look at it unless you're checking your graph for the last 50k hands.
    • tokyoaces
      tokyoaces
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      Joined: 01.04.2009 Posts: 1,883
      Originally posted by vmarqui
      EV shows nothing really.
      This +1 million.
    • Albeback
      Albeback
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      Joined: 02.03.2009 Posts: 250
      Even 10k hands is not that much. I play MTTs and MTT SNG so it might be a little different compared to cash games and I feel I have been running bad for 600+ tourney which is around 60k hands.
    • pavels4444
      pavels4444
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      Joined: 09.09.2010 Posts: 1,539
      just out of curiosity? where do you find it in HEM? im a completely new user. thanks
    • Wurble
      Wurble
      Silver
      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 456
      Originally posted by pavels4444
      just out of curiosity? where do you find it in HEM? im a completely new user. thanks
      it's graphs.. Display all in ev or something like that.

      To op - I'm currently 16 buy ins below ev over 40k hands but still positive win rate so don't think about it, just concentrate on playing well and your green line will go up. You can't do anything aboutluck once the money has gone in so just suck it up and carry on.
    • bennisboy
      bennisboy
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      Joined: 11.04.2011 Posts: 711
      It doesn't just refer to all in, it's how much of the pot you were involved in that you should 'expect' to win. Say there is $1 in the pot, and you are 75% favourite, well then, it counts in the EV graph as though you won 75c, regardless of whether you got the $1 or $0.

      I'm pretty sure if you're hand finished on the turn, it takes the % you were to win the hand if it went to showdown, and uses that for the EV, in other words, it is how much you could 'expect' to win from all the pots you were involved in, it doesn't just look at time where you went all-in.

      The only thing it is really useful for is knowing whether you have been making + or -EV decisions
    • MrMardyBum
      MrMardyBum
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      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 2,206
      Originally posted by bennisboy
      It doesn't just refer to all in, it's how much of the pot you were involved in that you should 'expect' to win. Say there is $1 in the pot, and you are 75% favourite, well then, it counts in the EV graph as though you won 75c, regardless of whether you got the $1 or $0.

      I'm pretty sure if you're hand finished on the turn, it takes the % you were to win the hand if it went to showdown, and uses that for the EV, in other words, it is how much you could 'expect' to win from all the pots you were involved in, it doesn't just look at time where you went all-in.

      The only thing it is really useful for is knowing whether you have been making + or -EV decisions
      Sorry to tell you this but you are wrong - All In EV shows you what you are expected to win when the cards are flipped over at the moment of being all in.

      If you have Quads for example At the time the cards are flipped and your opponent has 22 you are expected to win 100% of that pot, if there is no backdoor straight flush on the board.

      If you and a villain go all in Pre flop AK vs QQ then you are expected to win 48% of the time and therefore 48% of that pot is added to your all in EV. If the pot is $10 (for ease) then you are expected to win $4.80.
    • belayd
      belayd
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      Joined: 17.03.2011 Posts: 1,021
      All in EV has a lot of haters, but I'm not one of them. The fact is that all in EV is a very, very complex calculation that requires a college degree in statistics to understand. Since I only have high school math I don't believe I have enough knowledge to dismiss all in EV. There must be a reason that HEM uses it.

      At the same time, I don't pay a lot of attention to all in EV myself. I simply don't know enough about the calculation to know what I can use it for.
    • bennisboy
      bennisboy
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      Joined: 11.04.2011 Posts: 711
      Originally posted by MrMardyBum
      Originally posted by bennisboy
      It doesn't just refer to all in, it's how much of the pot you were involved in that you should 'expect' to win. Say there is $1 in the pot, and you are 75% favourite, well then, it counts in the EV graph as though you won 75c, regardless of whether you got the $1 or $0.

      I'm pretty sure if you're hand finished on the turn, it takes the % you were to win the hand if it went to showdown, and uses that for the EV, in other words, it is how much you could 'expect' to win from all the pots you were involved in, it doesn't just look at time where you went all-in.

      The only thing it is really useful for is knowing whether you have been making + or -EV decisions
      Sorry to tell you this but you are wrong - All In EV shows you what you are expected to win when the cards are flipped over at the moment of being all in.

      If you have Quads for example At the time the cards are flipped and your opponent has 22 you are expected to win 100% of that pot, if there is no backdoor straight flush on the board.

      If you and a villain go all in Pre flop AK vs QQ then you are expected to win 48% of the time and therefore 48% of that pot is added to your all in EV. If the pot is $10 (for ease) then you are expected to win $4.80.
      I know how EV works, hence how I explained it...

      So if it only tracks all in situations, why does the graph for all in EV show the results of every hand? Or does it take the factual results for when there was no all-in, and combine them with the results of when there was an all in?
    • MrMardyBum
      MrMardyBum
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      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 2,206
      How can an all in EV graph calculate EV when it doesn't know your opponents cards ?
    • outspan
      outspan
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      Joined: 07.02.2010 Posts: 1,196
      I don't agree with those who think it has to be discounted, even despite the small sample sizes. In my case, it's encouraging me to keep playing even though I'm losing - because I know that my losses are due to variance, and I'm ahead most of the times when I'm getting my money in.

      All things considered, I have a 50% chance of my green line being below the EV line, and 50% of it being above it. Now, excluding rakeback and bonuses, my winnings over 3.8k NL5 hands (which is a still a very small sample) are -$9.84 (-5BI), while the EV line is at $6.04 (+3BI) with a standard deviation of 1 BI. Unlucky, but knowing that (so far, over this very small sample) I made the right decisions prevents me from tilting and makes me want to keep playing.

      I just messed around with [URL=http://www.castrovalva.com/~la/win.htm]this[/URL] and, feeding it the data I've given you just now, I realized I'm in the top 90 percentile of the unluckiest poker players for this set of hands. Oh well ;)
    • tokyoaces
      tokyoaces
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      Joined: 01.04.2009 Posts: 1,883
      Originally posted by belayd
      All in EV has a lot of haters, but I'm not one of them. The fact is that all in EV is a very, very complex calculation that requires a college degree in statistics to understand. Since I only have high school math I don't believe I have enough knowledge to dismiss all in EV. There must be a reason that HEM uses it.
      It's not. It is a calculation designed for people who are not capable of understanding math. You make it seem complex, convince people to buy it by bribing affiliates to tell you its something you need, and then you make shitloads of money.

      However, for actually analyzing your game and becoming a better player it is completely useless.
    • Fongie
      Fongie
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      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      [quote]Originally posted by bennisboy
      Originally posted by MrMardyBum
      Originally posted by bennisboy
      I know how EV works, hence how I explained it...

      So if it only tracks all in situations, why does the graph for all in EV show the results of every hand? Or does it take the factual results for when there was no all-in, and combine them with the results of when there was an all in?
      For all hands when you are not all in, the EV line follows your normal green line. So, win a pot without being all in before the river, and that is added in the same way to the "all-in EV" line as to the normal green line.

      The EV line causes tilt for many people and is actually not even useful for looking at how you run, because it doesn't take into consideration any other kind of variance in the non-allin hands which are just as important.

      It's evil :f_p:
    • Albeback
      Albeback
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.03.2009 Posts: 250
      Yes the EV line only takes into account the hands in which you or your opponent were allin. For the others it just follows the green line as Fongie said.
      There are other things far more useful in HEM than the EV line for analyzing and improving your game so I don't think this is the primary reason for anyone to buy it.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Originally posted by MrMardyBum
      If you and a villain go all in Pre flop AK vs QQ then you are expected to win 48% of the time and therefore 48% of that pot is added to your all in EV. If the pot is $10 (for ease) then you are expected to win $4.80.
      LOL

      Just to clarify if you both get all in for $5, (a $10 pot) with 48% equity, your EV will be $-0.2 not $4.80. If only we made a stack every time we took a flip......


      Originally posted by Vmarqui
      EV shows nothing really. It's a closer approximation to your real winning rate, but it's still far away from it.
      +1, this guy is correct.
    • Albeback
      Albeback
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      Joined: 02.03.2009 Posts: 250
      Originally posted by w34z3l
      Originally posted by MrMardyBum
      If you and a villain go all in Pre flop AK vs QQ then you are expected to win 48% of the time and therefore 48% of that pot is added to your all in EV. If the pot is $10 (for ease) then you are expected to win $4.80.
      LOL

      Just to clarify if you both get all in for $5, (a $10 pot) with 48% equity, your EV will be $-0.2 not $4.80. If only we made a stack every time we took a flip......


      I don't understand why you LOL at MrMardyBum since you are saying the same thing.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Originally posted by Albeback
      I don't understand why you LOL at MrMardyBum since you are saying the same thing.
      Perhaps. But technically, since we are discussing the HEM allin-ev line it probably makes a lot more sense to refer to your ev as $-.2 since this is how it would be calculated by HEM. Don't you agree?

      Suggesting your EV is $4.80 may be indicative of a common misunderstanding in how EV is calculated.

      One forgets you can lose money in any given situation and therefore expect EV to exist somewhere on the scale $0 to $10. Realistically if you are allin preflop, it makes far more sense to consider your EV on a scale between $-5 and $5 in the given example. This is how HEM does it, and how it would be calculated if one was asked to calculate the EV of a preflop allin.

      Naturally it depends on your point of reference, and perhaps MrMardyBum realises this; he just didn't choose the most logical reference point given the context of this thread, so one is left to wonder if he really has a clue what he is talking about.

      Perhaps he was just trying to communicate with Bennisboy which is where the issue began

      Originally posted by bennisboy
      Say there is $1 in the pot, and you are 75% favourite, well then, it counts in the EV graph as though you won 75c, regardless of whether you got the $1 or $0.
      I'm sure someone is misunderstanding something...somehow......notice how you can't lose money in this example. Easy game, huh?

      The common misconception is that EV = (amountyoucan win * %chanceyouwin)

      The correct definition of EV =
      (Amount you can win * %chanceyouwin) - (amount you can lose * %chanceyoulose)
    • belayd
      belayd
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      Joined: 17.03.2011 Posts: 1,021
      If the all in EV stat is so useless, why is it available on HEM?
    • bennisboy
      bennisboy
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      Joined: 11.04.2011 Posts: 711
      Originally posted by belayd
      If the all in EV stat is so useless, why is it available on HEM?
      It's not useless, it's just down to personal preference
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