[NL2-NL10] Nl 25 SH 66 set on drawy board

    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)   
      Position:
      Stack
      CO:
      $26.48
      Hero:
      $29.44

      0.10/0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 6:club: , 6:spade:
      Hero raises to $1.00, CO calls $1.00, 3 folds.

      Flop: ($2.35) 5:heart: , 6:heart: , T:spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2, CO raises to $6.00, Hero raises to $28.44 (All-In), CO folds.

      Final Pot: $36.79

      I think I need to protect my set here and since Co raise was strong, he probably has overpair or overcards+flushdraw. So I guess pushing all-in and hope for a fold is the best:) or call for 55^^
  • 6 replies
    • snowylee
      snowylee
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.01.2007 Posts: 701
      Well, I don't think he would lay his set of 5's down even to your 3bet push? :)
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Well played but skewed logic.

      You don't hope for a fold, you hope for a call !!
      Win at fold : 10.35 $
      Equity vs called FD : (19.48$ + 10.35 $) * 79.3 % - (19.48 $) * 20.7 % = 19.62 $
      Equity vs double pair : 39.83 $ * 91 % - 19.48 $ * 9 % = 34.49 $
      Equity vs 55 : 37.22 $ (95.6 %)
      Equity vs TT : -16.87 $ (4.4 %)

      You want a call ... so perhaps it's a possibility not to push the 3-bet immediately but make a smaller reraise to about 14 $. That way his odds would still be wrong to call with FD, but he'd be more likely to. A raise to 14 $ gives an avg. pot equity of 12.88 $ if called, still better than a fold.
      Gotta go all the way with the hand of course, but you could try to squeeze him out for value, even if it's drawy, it's worth playing like this set vs Fdraw.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Thanks Sonic for explaining why I want to call^^. Just didn´t wan´t to have another suckout on the turn or river. 14-15$ is good re-raise to push on the turn:)
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      The thing is, and I think it's been overlooked on this forum quite often, is that you want to maximize your own projected win. It's not always bad to give a drawers a marginally EV- odds, in some cases, it's even good to give him a situation where it would be EV+ for him to call but even more EV+ for you if he'd call (taking reverse implied into account).

      If you raise here to 14 $, he's got the implied odds to call you with a FD and would be making an EV+ call. That's not necessarily bad for you, as EV takes dead money into account so you could both be playing EV+. Just need to maximize your own rate, but you gotta be wary of reverse implieds, but they're relatively low with a quarter of his stack already in.

      In this case, let's see the turn card :
      - 80 % Blank/:hT : You push and probably win 10 $ more (he got 8 outs on blank)
      - 20 % Flush : You push and stand to lose it all but got 10 outs (more than he ever did)
      Still, your equity overall is better than on a flop push that's folded. :)
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Agree and he always isn´t on the flush draw^^. Some players just call JJ+ pre-flop:)
    • Thorsten77
      Thorsten77
      Black
      Joined: 28.05.2006 Posts: 12,896
      See Sonics analysis.