[NL2-NL10] NL25 J9s

    • viandot
      viandot
      Silver
      Joined: 16.05.2010 Posts: 14
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($8.10)
      BB ($11.70)
      UTG ($12.25)
      UTG+1 ($7.75)
      CO ($8.75) fish 47/6, AF 1.0 for 30 hands
      BTN ($9.80)

      Dealt to Hero J:diamond: 9:diamond:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, CO checks, fold, Hero calls $0.10, BB checks

      FLOP ($1) T:club: 8:spade: J:spade:

      Hero bets $0.75, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, CO raises to $3.25, Hero raises to $7.85 (AI), CO raises to $8.50 (AI)

      TURN ($16.70) T:club: 8:spade: J:spade: A:diamond:

      RIVER ($16.70) T:club: 8:spade: J:spade: A:diamond: 8:club:


      So I have a top-pair and an OESD ... Is it worth pushing in this spot? Or should I have just folded?

      Cheers
  • 3 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hi,

      What range do you put him on when raising you? What is your equity against it?
      Do you have fold equity here?

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • viandot
      viandot
      Silver
      Joined: 16.05.2010 Posts: 14
      Hi Gerv,

      Considering the flop is very draw heavy, I would guess the villain would defend any top or 2 pairs here. I would also expect him to slowplay QQ+.

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 59.568 % 53.466 % 12.205 % 34.330 % 88+, AJs, KJs, QJs, J8s+, T8s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, J8o+, T8o
      Player 2: 40.432 % 34.330 % 12.205 % 53.466 % Jd9d


      We have around 40% equity and don't think there is a lot of fold equity as his bet is so large, so we are playing for stack.

      Effective pot would be 16.7 and we have got 7.1 to pay which leaves us with 42.5% pot odds.

      Marginal decision but its better to fold here then? Please let me know if I'm wrong somehere. Thanks
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hi,

      I don't think he has AJ,KJ (really would he limp preflop?). Furthermore would QJ be raising here that is TPGK?

      So I think his range is this

      Board: T:club: 8:spade: J:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    65.92%  61.58%   4.34% { 88, Q9s, JTs, J8s, T8s+, AsTs, As9s, Ks9s, 9s8s, 9s7s, JTo }
      MP3    34.08%  29.74%   4.34% { Jd9d }



      That means you just have to bet/fold

      Best regards,
      Gerv