I've been thinking about situations when I need to call down, things like on what boards against what opponents I want to show down small pocket pairs, ace high, even king high. This is the analysis I've been doing for calling down with a pocket pair on a low uncoordinated board against a TAG from MP2's range, and I'm looking for some criticism of my analysis before I go and apply a similar analysis to other situations.

Their range, taken from the ORC from Poker Strategy:


I'm going to use 44 in this example as hero's hand.

The board:


On the flop,we have 54% equity
The best turn cards for us are lower than a T, with a four obviously being awesome. The worst turn cards are T and higher, with ace being the worst.

I've wondered about the wisdom of raising this flop and I'm really not sure how to analyse it. There's just too many options and the tree of possibilities is huge. Are they reraising their sets now or on the turn, are they calling with overcards and bluff raising a broadway card that misses them? Both of these are probably TAG things to do, and each TAG might or might not do either of them depending on their mood at the time, so I don't see any value in trying to investigate these options. My general thoughts are, if they have a better hand, at some point, they're going to raise me and that's generally not good. I'd rather keep them bluffing till the end with A8s.

So on this flop, I'm going to call their contibet which is I'm reckoning 100% of their range. Even if an ace shows up on the turn or river or both, I'm going to call, they should still be hammering KJ etc, but my equity drops to about 35% here. The only situation it'd seem that I should fold is if it comes A/K or K/A on the turn/river, when my equity is slashed to 7% and I need 13:1 on the call, which I don't have. (Note preflop 2.5BBs, on the flop 3.5BBs, on the turn, 5.5BBs, river 6.5:1).

So on this board, I'm ok calling down. Sound fair?