SSS Draws as Made?!

    • Z4111
      Z4111
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2007 Posts: 36
      Hi, I just have a few queries regarding the SSS system... I follow it closely as I believe in the mathematics of it... But unless I seriously misunderstood something, the strategy tells me to count certain draws as made hands, flushdraws and open enders. In most situations I think this is crazy! Because, I bet out with an open ender, a guy raises me with Kings, I push, he calls, and I'm a serious underdog. This is the situation most times, because most of the time players will call me with either made hands or top pair with a flushdraw.
  • 7 replies
    • KillaKHAN
      KillaKHAN
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.04.2007 Posts: 660
      Originally posted by Z4111
      Hi, I just have a few queries regarding the SSS system... I follow it closely as I believe in the mathematics of it... But unless I seriously misunderstood something, the strategy tells me to count certain draws as made hands, flushdraws and open enders. In most situations I think this is crazy! Because, I bet out with an open ender, a guy raises me with Kings, I push, he calls, and I'm a serious underdog. This is the situation most times, because most of the time players will call me with either made hands or top pair with a flushdraw.
      Acording to the SSS you move allin with a draw when your stack is less then 1.5 the pot size. With a caller your pot odds (with 1.5xpot stack) are 1.5:2.5 or 37.5% so you basically need to win more than that to be +EV. That's the worst case scenario for you. If you, for example, hold only a pot sized stack your pot odds with 1 caller (that's the goal with the SSS) are 1:2 or 33.3%.

      So with the SSS you're obviously playing only premium hands meaning an open ended straight draw or a flush draw that hits will be the winning hand in at least 95% if not higher.

      So with a open ended straight you have 8 outs in 2 cards. That means you get 31.5% chance to hit one of those cards on turn+river. With a flush draw this chance (9 cards) raises to 35%.

      When you also take the fold equity into the equation your EV gets even higher. Of course there is that small posibility that you loose even with that hit draw. And you shouldn't forget that even if you didn't hit a flop, with the premium hands you pick to play with the SSS you might still be way ahead vs. anything that didn't hit (~30% of the time) and isn't a pocket pair.
    • Z4111
      Z4111
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2007 Posts: 36
      You bring up some good points, but I still cannot see where the advantage is in going heads up on the flop, both players all-in... I have a draw which, for example has 36% chance to hit... Now in order for me to win the hand, I need to either hit that draw or hit some other suckout... And this is totally disregarding the fact that my draw hitting could also benefit the opposition.

      So, 36% to hit, and say if I do hit, I win, that gives me perhaps 40-42% chance of winning (taking other suckouts into consideration) But I am still a major underdog because this still disregards any draws the opposition could be on.
    • Yoghi
      Yoghi
      Black
      Joined: 10.09.2007 Posts: 14,387
      If you win 1/3 of the time:

      The pot is 0, somebody goes allin and you call, you paid 1/2 and you will win 1/3 of the times, bad move.

      The pot is 2, you have 1 left and somebody puts you allin, now you have to pay 1 to win 4 (the pot will be 4 when you call). So you win 1/3 of the time while you have to pay only 1/4, which is a good move.

      In numbers:

      pot = 0: You have to pay 2 to win 4, so on average in 3 times you will win 4 and you have to pay 6, -2

      pot = 2: You have to pay 1 to win 4, so on average in 3 times you will win 4 and only have to pay 3, +1

      And since in SSS you will almost always have a situation like my 2nd example the move will be good, since on average you win more than you have to pay.
    • KillaKHAN
      KillaKHAN
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.04.2007 Posts: 660
      Originally posted by Z4111
      You bring up some good points, but I still cannot see where the advantage is in going heads up on the flop, both players all-in... I have a draw which, for example has 36% chance to hit... Now in order for me to win the hand, I need to either hit that draw or hit some other suckout... And this is totally disregarding the fact that my draw hitting could also benefit the opposition.

      So, 36% to hit, and say if I do hit, I win, that gives me perhaps 40-42% chance of winning (taking other suckouts into consideration) But I am still a major underdog because this still disregards any draws the opposition could be on.
      the thing is that with the hand selection with the SSS you play premium hands, that means that when you hit your draw you will win 95% of the time sice you'll usually draw to nut straight or nut flush (if you hold the A, noone can have a higher flush than you).

      Originally posted by Yoghi
      If you win 1/3 of the time:

      The pot is 0, somebody goes allin and you call, you paid 1/2 and you will win 1/3 of the times, bad move.

      The pot is 2, you have 1 left and somebody puts you allin, now you have to pay 1 to win 4 (the pot will be 4 when you call). So you win 1/3 of the time while you have to pay only 1/4, which is a good move.

      In numbers:

      pot = 0: You have to pay 2 to win 4, so on average in 3 times you will win 4 and you have to pay 6, -2

      pot = 2: You have to pay 1 to win 4, so on average in 3 times you will win 4 and only have to pay 3, +1

      And since in SSS you will almost always have a situation like my 2nd example the move will be good, since on average you win more than you have to pay.
      The thing is that the pot is usually = 1 not 2 or 0 :D

      With the SSS you can usually count the pot pre flop being ~ 0.90-1.xx$ with 1 caller. (Blinds, your raise to 4xBB and 1 caller outside the blinds). So with your remaining 1.5$ (your ~4-5 BB raise) you get 1.5 vs 4 (1$ pot + 1.5$ opp call) odds. So that's 37.5%.

      I'm tired now but the basic math is that you need more than 37.5% chance to win to be EV+. Since you have 35% to hit a 9 outer that's almost enough, but then there's at least some % of FE that you have to take into account, and some % that you win even if you don't hit the draw and your EV is very +. Of course there is always the chance that you're drawing dead, but with the SHC of the SSS that % could nearly be neglectable.

      So any draw post flop should be treated as +EV with the SSS.

      Note that that would change RAPIDLY if your stack size would be ~4$ instead of the 2$ as your pot odds drasticly fall (you pay 4 in a 1$ pot that can be increased to 5$ with calling of 1 opponent so your odds are basically 4:5 = ~45%).
    • Yoghi
      Yoghi
      Black
      Joined: 10.09.2007 Posts: 14,387
      But you also have fold equity...
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      I was to lazy to read the whole thread, but the answer is quite short here)

      a) multiway pot - good pot oods
      b) Heads up - fold equity. Since you have raised pre-flop, you have to cbet, because you have a high fold equity. After you made a cbet, you are deadly commited and you 8 OESD outs definitely provide enough equity) To maximize the fold equity you should push (if your stack only 1.5x smaller then pot)

      Besides, since you are playing only premium hands, from time to time you will have extra outs.

      Simple example:

      pot: 8BB (blinds are raked)
      stack: 16BB

      your equity 36%
      pot equity: 40%

      - opponent calls 100% of the time -> - EV
      - opponent folds 15% of the time and calls the ramaining 85% -> + EV

      in reality you will have way higher fold equity... if you have any concerns - post your hands in sample hands forum
    • Z4111
      Z4111
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2007 Posts: 36
      Okay thanks guys, beginning to understand that aspect properly now, much appreciated. I'm just looking for reassurance that my playing is +EV.. Been a tough grind recently and it got me wondering whether I should make some adjustments, I'll stick to the SSS though until I reach $200 (I'm rather looking forward to playing deepstack)

      Also, could the playing style of the players on full tilt be a consistent enough value to assist in defining whether or not my playing is +EV? Because it seems to me that there's a lot of TAG play there, not much profit going on when I hit. Anyway, thanks guys.