[NL2-NL10] NL10 titan MSS - playing AQ post-flop

    • Pygmalion
      Joined: 12.12.2007 Posts: 36
      Hi all,

      I would like an opinion on the hand below:

      Known players:

      0.05/0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.101 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A:spade: , Q:diamond:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20.

      Flop: ($0.90) 8:club: , 4:club: , 3:club: (3 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.7, SB calls $0.70, BB folds.

      Turn: ($2.30) 5:spade: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks.

      River: ($2.30) J:diamond: (2 players)
      SB bets $0.9, Hero ???.

      According to the MSS, I should make a cbet on the flop and check on the turn if the turn card does not help my hand.


      1. A check on the turn seems weak to me as it invites a bet from the Villain on the river (which I have to fold if it's a blank card). Would a second barrel on the turn be a better play in this situation? and in general?

      2. When reviewing this hand I noticed that the Villain has a VP$IP of 32 and a PFR of 28 which makes him a loose aggressive player (admittedly the sample was only about 50 hands big...)

      My question is: based on the stats, was the Hero more or less likely to have been ahead by the river?

      3. Could someone please give me an example of how I would go about putting the villian on a hand range with the information provided?

      4. I'm assuming a fold on the river is a correct play?

      Thanks for the help!
  • 4 replies
    • BadeaCelRau
      Joined: 15.10.2010 Posts: 2,122
      That's not a flop you want to cbet on, never. Being against two opponents makes it even worse.
    • Pygmalion
      Joined: 12.12.2007 Posts: 36
      Thanks for the repl BadeaCelRau.

      I actually realised I had misplayed the flop when I reread the MSS notes (after I had posted the hand) :(

      A check fold with overcards on a drawy flop against two players should've been my play here.

      However, I would still like some sort of answer to the 4 questions asked please.

    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hello pygmalion,

      I agree that according to the SHC, one has to check/fold on this flop

      Answers on your questions:
      ON your first question, I would still like to chck because it is unlikely for me villain is check/calling the Flop to check/fold the Turn. his range has hit something on the Flop and isn't folding

      You are misinterpreting stats in your second question because VPIP/PFR only has relevance preflop. His range changes on the flop+turn+river and I would say if he bets, he always has a pair+

      This is a hard methodology but basically he has at worst 2 overs with 1. Then he has pair+draw, toppair, overpair, 2pair, set, straights so mostly your equity against that is quite horrible

      4. Yes I would fold on the river as I explained earlier :)

      Best regards,
    • Pygmalion
      Joined: 12.12.2007 Posts: 36
      Thanks for the feedback Gerv! :D