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Second opinion on a test answers needed

    • Gavron23
      Joined: 26.05.2010 Posts: 2,863
      Hi guys,

      There are two answers in a test that I took in an other comunity,
      that I am not sure about and want second opinion

      In the first hand we are CO on the buble with 88 and the stack setup is:

      CO 2644
      BU 2506
      SB 2746
      BB 5604

      Blinds level is 80/160
      It says that BB is agressive as a chipleader on the buble and plays back against steals around 30%(I actually missed that part while reading the test).Which
      play is superior raise/fold or outright folding?

      The other hand We are CO on the buble again with the shortest stack:

      CO 1025
      BU 3505
      SB 5255
      BB 3715

      Blinds are 120/240
      How much of an negative edge can we take here?( Hero has K5o which i thought is a fold).

      Thanks for your time and sorry for posting more than one hand in a thread
  • 3 replies
    • bjela
      Joined: 11.06.2010 Posts: 1,012
      First hand, I'd fold. Raise/fold would leave you the shortstack, and you really don't need that with ~20 BB effective stacks. And with folding you leave Bu and Sb the chance to do something stupid. Also the SHC says fold ;)

      Second hand is a clear push. You pay the blinds next hand and will have no fold equity later. This is IMO the final spot you can steal anything.

      Of course, I'm looking forward to pzhon and <3 correcting me :)
    • pzhon
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      In the first hand, I think 30% may mean you should simply fold. You could push with shorter stacks but I think you would risk too much for the reward. You could push TT. You might be ok with a raise/fold if you can get away with a small raise, but this would also prevent your opponents from colliding, and that is a valuable possibility which is more common when the big blind resteals aggressively.

      The second hand looks like a common mistake by serious players who have read some obsolete advice from Collin Moshman's book. They get so excited by the idea of a -EV push that they push in situations like this which spew money. Hitting the blinds is bad, but pushing trash is very often worse. Perhaps 5 years ago there was more folding equity, but now people make spite calls against these short pushes.

      Many opponents call too widely on the bubble, and do not respect CO raises enough. They are not sufficiently aware of the difference between pushing from the CO and pushing from the small blind. This means you should be cautious about making raises from the CO which are really semibluffs.

      One way to estimate the cost of hitting the blinds is to advance the blinds so that you become the big blind, then put the hand into the Nash calculator like this. Look at the EQDiff reported: -1.123% of the prize pool. Pushing saves this completely if you get called and knocked out, but if you don't get called or if you double up you still have to pay the blinds. So, you should only make the pushes which give up a small fraction of this EQDiff, probably something closer to 0.3%. Set the edge in SNG Wizard to -0.3% to see which hands might be profitable pushes.

      Do not ignore it when SNG Wizard says pushing trash UTG is a gigantic mistake. Adjust the ranges, and adjust for hitting the blinds next, and then don't push hands like K5o here.

      Oh, and about folding equity: My goal is to make $, not to have folding equity, but hitting the blinds does not mean there is no more folding equity. You get folding equity again if you double up, which will happen often. Players may also give you a walk when you seem pot-committed while they are not.
    • Gavron23
      Joined: 26.05.2010 Posts: 2,863
      Thanks for your input, pzhon!