[NL2-NL10] nl10 sh AK

    • xero100
      xero100
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.08.2009 Posts: 1,355
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($7.06)
      BB ($5.41)
      UTG ($12.11)
      UTG+1 ($5.55)
      CO ($16.24)
      Hero ($10)

      Dealt to Hero A:club: K:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, fold

      FLOP ($0.70) Q:heart: Q:spade: A:spade:

      SB checks, Hero bets $0.52, SB raises to $1.69, Hero raises to $9.70 (AI), SB calls $5.07 (AI)

      TURN ($14.22) Q:heart: Q:spade: A:spade: 4:diamond:

      RIVER ($14.22) Q:heart: Q:spade: A:spade: 4:diamond: J:diamond:

      33/7/1.3/86
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello xero100,

      Do we expect to get raised there with Ax in this spot from a passive opponent? I guess it could be the case, although more often such passive players do play as well passive their TP type of hand and I don't think that he would that often raise there with A2-AT or whatsoever hands. Therefore it's pretty close. If we do put him somewhat wider range like this:

      Board: Q:heart: Q:spade: A:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    44.89%  39.23%   5.67% { A2s+, KQs, Q2s+, A5o+, KQo, Q8o+ }
      UTG+1  55.11%  49.44%   5.67% { AcKs }

      Then it should be pretty easy, that we can go broke.

      But if we consider him not playing his TP type of hands very aggressively and which can even be the case with those loose players, they tend not to overplay their TP type of hands and rather play passively and put a bit tighter range:

      Board: Q:heart: Q:spade: A:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    74.51%  69.40%   5.11% { AJs+, KQs, Q2s+, AJo+, KQo, Q8o+ }
      UTG+1  25.49%  20.38%   5.11% { AcKs }

      We see that we ain't getting the greatest equity against that kind of range anymore. That's why I as well do take notes on the opponents how they do play their TP type of hands. But so far people tend to play rather passively.

      And as well I don't expect him to raise here that often with a draw.

      So for conclusion it's pretty thin spot to go broke although shouldn't be that big mistake if you really did consider him going broke there with just some weak Ax type of hand.

      Best regards.