[NL2-NL10] QJ nl10

    • deivid2
      Joined: 23.05.2009 Posts: 6,366
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($21.37)
      BB ($9.90)
      UTG ($2.27)
      UTG+1 ($11.18)
      CO ($14.36)
      Hero ($12.08)

      Dealt to Hero Q:spade: J:spade:

      UTG calls $0.10, UTG+1 raises to $0.50, fold, Hero calls $0.50, fold, BB calls $0.40, UTG calls $0.40

      FLOP ($2.05) Q:club: A:club: J:heart:

      BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $2.05, Hero calls $2.05, BB folds, UTG calls $1.77 (AI)

      TURN ($7.92) Q:club: A:club: J:heart: 7:club:

      UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

      RIVER ($7.92) Q:club: A:club: J:heart: 7:club: J:club:

      UTG+1 bets $7.92, Hero calls $7.92

      21/19 ABC TAG

      PRE: my postion hand and UTG who is easy to read this is easy call i think.
      F: when he bet pot i think his range is this AK, AQ, AJ

      MP2 61.20% 60.51% 0.69% AA, QQ-JJ, AJs+, AKo
      MP3 38.80% 38.11% 0.69% QsJs

      so this is call and evaluate turn.

      MP2 62.50% 62.50% 0.00% AA, QQ-JJ, AJs, AdKc, AhKc, AsKc
      MP3 37.50% 37.50% 0.00% QsJs

      pretty close of couse when i play i snap call becosue i hit FH and not think long time but now i thinks even if i think
      T: easy ch he never call me here worse hand and idea change my Sdvalue in bluff i don't like.

      R: i think this

      MP2 62.50% 62.50% 0.00% AA, QQ-JJ, AJs, AdKc, AhKc, AsKc
      MP3 37.50% 37.50% 0.00% QsJs

      so i think this is cry calls and cooler if he beat me.

      What do you think?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello deivid2,

      Flop: Pretty close here, the thing is that we really don't want to see any flush card or a T or even a K. There are just so many cards which kill our action and as well his bet size ain't the weakest either. And while he really is even potting here I might even sometimes prefer folding, he ain't only having 2pairs there but as well he may even have sets:

      Board: Q:club: A:club: J:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG+1  69.34%  68.66%   0.68% { AA, QQ-JJ, ATs+, KTs, AJo+ }
      UTG+2  30.66%  29.98%   0.68% { QsJs }

      Therefore I don't really see many hands what we beat what would bet pot into multiway pot. KTs is pretty close but I would still say that some do raise such hands.

      And even if a Q or J comes, we will never know where we stand with our hand while he may easily hold the better 2pairs.

      Turn: Not much to add, I'd as well Check behind rather than bet on such a card.
      River: Not much to do than make the crying Call. While he might even sometimes overplay his K.

      Best regards.