Heads-Up SNG variance?

    • pavels4444
      pavels4444
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2010 Posts: 1,539
      Hi, Im just wondering how big is HU Sng variance? When can you really tell that you are beating the limit?

      I had really upswingy, downswingy experience so far at 6dollar HU at fulltilt. One day, I felt like I could beat anybody, lots of fishes were registering who were easy to figure out and beat. The next day I played against only good players, no limping, classic c-bets, re-raising c-bets, had really some more trouble against those players. When you are completely card dead or when you never hit the flop, its also hard to win. It makes me tilt as well. Gotta learn how to deal with it. My last HU match today was also pretty crazy, my opponent was a complete fish. I got a 2500 to 500 chip lead. But I lost 3 all-ins in the few next hands and lost. It was AJ vs A7, 88 vs Q8 and A7 vs K8s. There is nothing I could do about it...
      So back to the basic question? How big is the variance at turbo HU?

      This is a graph of only 6-dollar HU turbo at fulltilt. I would say that the match takes 40 hands on average (few times got over 100)



      My FTP bankroll is worked up to over 500 dollars mainly thanks to 1-dollar Rush on Demand tourneys.
      I guess 6 dollar HU is big enough to play right now?
  • 5 replies
    • fusionpk
      fusionpk
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,683
      hu variance is sick, 150games is no where near a big enough sample.

      1k games will probs give u an idea and more will determine ur roi
    • pavels4444
      pavels4444
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2010 Posts: 1,539
      I always thought that HU variance can't be that big but my experience so far proved me wrong. Gotta play more and see where it goes
    • ExternalUseOnly
      ExternalUseOnly
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.01.2010 Posts: 3,373
      HU cash variance can be pretty sick but HUsng isnt as bad i dont have a big enough example yet to give you evidence of my own experiences but im not finding it too much to take yet and have some friends who make a lot of money from them over big samples who say theyre pretty low variance with lots and lots of fish and average regs with big leaks up to the $50s.

      Obviously with all variants of poker there is a lot of work involved and you need to constantly work hard to keep improving
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      Heads uop SNG is alot less than cash. I recently had a 70bi downswing at cash but at SNG's I'd find this close to impossible I think. It obviously also depends alot on whether you are talking about normal/turbo/hyper turbos and the buy in level.
    • ZeMammuth
      ZeMammuth
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 704
      let's just say the best hu sngs players experience b/e, losing stretches for over 1k games, so 1k games is a small sample. A good sample would be 3k games.

      Look at players graphs such as Icevenom and Livb112 and it will give you an idea of how big variance can be. At the level they play edges are so small that if you can get 3 percent roi is world class, so really it depends on your skill edge.

      The smaller the edge the bigger the variance, so if you can beat your current limts w/e you're playing for like 10 roi which is ok for playing low mid stakes, you are less likely to have these b/e streaks but trust me never underestimate the variance of hu sngs, because it is insane. Don't listen to what any1 tells you, you can easilly have 50+ bi downswings. I recently ran over 100bi below ev in 1 month on the 50's and my roi on them was 10, so anything is possible.

      Get a 3k sample and see from there. You can be a losing player and win after 1k games and vise versa.