[NL2-NL10] NL4SH - KK ever finds a fold pre?

    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      So it happened two more times today.

      In this one case, villain is nitty 16/13 with 7 pre-flop 3bet over 273 hands. It's a total of 3 3bets, 2 in position and one defending blind. In almost 300 hands. His steal att. is 28% and the fold to steal a whooping 92% so he probably understands position (even a bit too much).

      I'm raising from UTG, which is strongest; he 3bets. Calling is somewhat out of question as folding post-flop is indeed ridiculous. But after I 4bet and he 5 bets, should I really believe this guy would 5bet AK or QQ vs. UTG without dynamics?


      PartyGaming - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

      BTN: $4.20
      SB: $6.76
      BB: $1.40
      Hero (UTG): $4.00
      MP: $6.62
      CO: $4.14

      SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

      Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero has K:spade: K:club:

      Hero raises to $0.16, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.48, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.60, BTN raises to $4.20 and is all-in, Hero calls $2.40 and is all-in

      Flop: ($8.06, 2 players) 8:heart: 3:spade: 5:heart:

      Turn: ($8.06, 2 players) 5:diamond:

      River: ($8.06, 2 players) 5:spade:

      Hero shows K:spade: K:club: (Full House, Fives full of Kings) (PreFlop 18%, Flop 8%, Turn 5%)
      BTN shows A:spade: A:heart: (Full House, Fives full of Aces) (PreFlop 82%, Flop 92%, Turn 95%)
      BTN wins $0.00
      BTN wins $7.66

      Veriz, you once asked me about sample and how was I doing with KK. So on NL4 (my largest sample) I have 30k tracked hands. That's not a small sample. Out of those, 144 were KK (actually slightly more than may "fair share").

      I'm up 450BB with them overall. All cool there.

      Now... if we filter from position, the position I won the most (surprinsingly) is SB with a whooping average of 10PTBB/hand. MP is 2.26, BTN a mere 0.8PTBB/hand, and, suprise surprise, UTG is -3.84PTBB/hand.

      The interesting part is: if I filter the hands I actually 4bet, they are only 14, and I'm a mere 50PTBB up. Filtering by position, the times I 4bet when UTG I'm losing 51PTBB per hand on average!

      I keep reading and seeing on videos and etc. that folding KK pre is nonsense, but I'm getting harder to convince. I know if one goes to limits a bit higher people are 3bet-bluffing and even 4bet-bluffing, well, then if you have people 5bet-shoving JJ it makes sense to put your KK in. But I just don't see it on NL4 (except those well-known all-in monkeys that would shove A6o anyway). Those nit 13/11 who 3bet 7% won't do it. I know what a 7% range look like but they are not 3betting 7% vs. UTG. This guy today folds 70% to 3bet and has so far 0 4bets (but my sample is small, I know).

      Of all the times I went all-in pre-flop (either raising myself or calling), I won twice vs. AA (well, it happens as well we know), won ONCE vs. a retard 70/7 who all the sudden got aggravated by being iso-raised relentlessly and limp/shoved 88, and ONCE vs. AK held by an overly loose 41/21. Then I lost all others to AA.

      When facing an all-in and called, I only won once (that 88 mentioned above) and lost all other 6 times for a net negative of 180PTBB... there was NEVER a way someone shoved QQ- or AQ- for a full stack on my whole database. Only a couple of AK.

      I'm just thinking aloud here. I've had a "heater" those days, but it's hard to keep things on green losing stacks and stacks a day on KK vs. AA.

      I could keep dissecting my stats but I don't think we would go any further. If 30k hands is not enough sample and you say that I'm just ridiculously unlucky for always facing AA, than ok, that might be the case. If 100% of opinions out there is still "fold KK pre is nonsense" I'll probably keep shoving/calling them as in many things (poker included) I trust the more experienced a lot. But so far it is a "strategy" resulting in quite frustrating and unprofitable sessions...

      Sorry, maybe I'm just putting "out of my chest" out of frustration. I do agree it's weird to think folding KK pre after 4betting it. But it's just the case that, if calling shoves w/ KK is profitable I've been ridiculously unlucky in this last 30k hands.
  • 5 replies
    • Dragar
      Dragar
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2008 Posts: 2,214
      Hey,

      Ok you can never fold KK pre-flop 6max.
      Even if it seems unprofitable now, folding is worse.

      If you go up higher stakes people will start being more aggressive pre-flop... if you develop a results oriented pattern now it would not suit you well.
    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Originally posted by Dragar
      Hey,

      Ok you can never fold KK pre-flop 6max.
      Even if it seems unprofitable now, folding is worse.

      If you go up higher stakes people will start being more aggressive pre-flop... if you develop a results oriented pattern now it would not suit you well.
      Thanks for feedback. I'll probably keep doing it and (hopefully) won't keep losing *so* much.

      On a side note, I've checked my QQ results. Always up and a nice giraffe in the end for a good +350PTBB on 30k hands. So apparently I'm not overplaying my ladies - can't say the same for cowboys...
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello luizsilveira,

      What's his 3bet from BU? Although I don't think that you can ever fold here. :D His 3bet ain't even that nitty. Even if we put him on some kind of 2-3% range:

             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    42.81%  40.24%   2.57% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
      UTG+1  57.19%  54.63%   2.57% { KK }

      Even then we are ahead. :) So I don't really see how I can fold this.

      Best regards.
    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Originally posted by veriz
      Hello luizsilveira,

      What's his 3bet from BU? Although I don't think that you can ever fold here. :D His 3bet ain't even that nitty. Even if we put him on some kind of 2-3% range:

             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    42.81%  40.24%   2.57% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
      UTG+1  57.19%  54.63%   2.57% { KK }

      Even then we are ahead. :) So I don't really see how I can fold this.

      Best regards.
      Seriously? 54% for me is at most break even, especially if you discount rake :D

      And to be honest, I myself am not so nitty but I won't always 3bet an UTG raise from BTN w/ AK or QQ - exactly because I don't want to get 4bet by top of his range. I'd 3bet all day vs. CO even w/ suited connectors but not vs. UTG...

      Even if we call BTN and get squeezed from an aggressive blind and UTG folds, THEN we have an easy push. But if the squeezer is quite nitty, or if UTG 4bets vs. 2 villains then it's an easy fold.

      As you see, I continue not be a believer :f_biggrin:

      Maybe when I'm back yet again on NL10 I'll change my mind - but this very week I've played NL10 and lost 2 stacks KK vs. AA. I try also to keep in mind that on Party Poker there is no NL2 6max, so beginners wanting 6max have to go to NL4 as well.

      Like I told up there, in 30k hands on NL4 I don't have one single hand shoved by full stacks holding QQ- and only a couple by AK.

      In 30k hands I might as well just have been ridiculously unlucky to always run into AA but that's a bit of too much an easy excuse...
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Unfortunately 30k ain't a biggest sample, you ain't even dealt a lot of KK situations there where you go preflop broke. And I do agree with your thoughts that you sometimes even don't 3bet with AK/QQ but that doesn't mean that he doesn't 3bet you. :D

      And actually there is even possible to create such stats as which show how much he does 3bets against UTG with HEM and likely I guess with PT as well.