[NL2-NL10] NL4SH - Rivered set gets ugly river ch/r

    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      PartyGaming - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

      CO: $4.99
      BTN: $4.00
      SB: $4.15
      BB: $4.00
      UTG: $4.24
      Hero (MP): $4.64

      SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

      Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero has 9:diamond: 9:club:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.16, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.12

      Flop: ($0.34, 2 players) 2:diamond: 4:heart: T:diamond:
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.24, BB calls $0.24

      Turn: ($0.82, 2 players) J:spade:
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.60, BB calls $0.60

      River: ($2.02, 2 players) 9:spade:
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.80, BB raises to $3.00 and is all-in, Hero...?

      Oh, those river bets...

      Villain is 33/18, AF 2/5/inf. over 84 hands (very small sample). Fold flop to cbet 50. His cold call pre on the blinds is 50. So his range is almost anything.

      He check/called flop and turn. With a duotone board I don't think he would do that with a set, so sets are out of question (I think, of course).

      On the river I'd check behind most cards as I don't have any value to extract from FD anymore - and he is not folding Tx/Jx type of hands.

      But I get luckbox on river and decide to bet for value vs. the many pair and two pairs on his range.

      If I bet too big, I thought, I'll only get raised by the straight or called by the idiot straight anyway, as KQ is def. on my range. But if I bet a bit to the small side he might even call w/ AT or something like that, as I could be the one bluffing the missed draw.

      My reasoning was if he had the straight he wouldn't miss value checking river again, as on that sort of scary card I'd check behind most of my range (except the polarized straight/A high bluff). It would have been a bad call for him on flop and turn with KQ and even a worse check on river missing quite a lot of value.

      Then he raise/shoves. Either he has it or he put me on the missed FD. Will he ever play KQ or even 78, JJ or TT like that?!

      Thank you, as always!
  • 5 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello luizsilveira,

      You need on river like 28% equity to make it break-even Call. And for example against this range:

      Board: 2:diamond: 4:heart: T:diamond:  J:spade:  9:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    61.29%  61.29%   0.00% { TT, KQs, JTs, T9s, KQo, JTo, T9o }
      UTG+1  38.71%  38.71%   0.00% { 9d9c }

      We even do get pretty decent equity, therefore I wouldn't really say that I would fold there that easily, while he could easily just level himself to raise while you do such a small value-bet. And could easily even have 2pairs there or if somewhat more aggressive opponent then maybe even missed draws. :)

      Just curious what did he have then?

      Best regards.
    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Originally posted by veriz

      Just curious what did he have then?

      He had 55 :f_biggrin:

      Thanks a lot, Veriz.

      What do you think of my betsizing on all streets? Makes sense? Should it be bigger? What about the bet on river?

      I think it was that small bet that "drove him crazy" and made him come over the top. Had I bet bigger I think he'd just fold.

      The reason I didn't check behind was because, as I said, it's hard for him not to donk a straight or even a JJ kind of hand. Am I right on this?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      What do you think of my betsizing on all streets? Makes sense? Should it be bigger?

      Guess flop & turn should be totally fine and I don't even mind. We would often do it with made hands as well, I mean stronger than 99. :D

      What about the bet on river?

      Guess I'd basically just bet myself bigger here unless you really tried to induce him to bluff-raise you.

      I think it was that small bet that "drove him crazy" and made him come over the top. Had I bet bigger I think he'd just fold.

      Hehe, definitely. :f_cool:

      The reason I didn't check behind was because, as I said, it's hard for him not to donk a straight or even a JJ kind of hand. Am I right on this?

      Nah, I wouldn't Check behind there either, if we talking about river. There are just so many hands which may pay us so would be even mistake to Check behind there. :D
    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Are you mocking on my brave nines? :D

      I mean... the guy called two streets with 55 and I'm pretty sure he would do it with A high as well... If I don't valuebet second pair against a guy who calls 50% from blinds and folds only 50% on the flop who would I get value from? :D
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by luizsilveira
      Are you mocking on my brave nines? :D

      I mean... the guy called two streets with 55 and I'm pretty sure he would do it with A high as well... If I don't valuebet second pair against a guy who calls 50% from blinds and folds only 50% on the flop who would I get value from? :D
      Just feel good to have such players on your table. :D And try take maximum value from them. :) Don't even have to play against regs, just aim for him.