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underdog = doomed

    • mariobros00
      Joined: 18.03.2011 Posts: 21
      hi guys,

      so i was wondering is there a way to make a come back in MTT when you're underdog with 8-12 BB, because when i push allin whenever i get called by a bigger stake it's a lose/lose situation for me no matter what i hold , it seems like the odds of u winning or losing the hand are only dictated by your chip stake regardless of how strong or weak your hand is. some hands just feel like if you've been sat up :D

      so, is there some kind of situation or technique to use to make the hand hold, or should i just close the table and give up when i find myself underdog ? at least i wont be giving away free chips.

      today i lost my AKs against 52o, 52o!!!!? this is starting to get very frustrating to me X(

      any replies will be much appreciated.

      (i know about ICM)

      and btw how did the ICM guys come up with those pushing ranges ?
  • 14 replies
    • MartinMcS
      Joined: 17.04.2011 Posts: 10
      The most important thing you have to realise in MTT's and SNGs for the matter, is positioning. That is everything. If you are a low stack, going all in with say A 10, on the dealer button tends to be the right move if everyone has folded. Doing it UTG is risky, especially since you may have other with pockets, or a better kicker that is willing to pay to see the flop.

      So my advice for you, aim for stealing the blinds. You are more likely to get a big stack, wanting to hold on to their BB calling with muck cause the think you are stealing. Those times your AK will win the majority of the time.

      Going all in with AKs low stack is the correct move. Don't let it upset you. You lost the hand, but it was the correct move.
    • NoOneSpcl
      Joined: 03.04.2011 Posts: 118
      Heh I know where the frustration comes from, believe me... It happens...

      But also better believe that if you've played many tournaments and you're using a tracking software (such as Pokertracker or Holdem Manager), you can go over all your past tourney hands like these and see that the underdogs wins or loses just the right amount of time....Just like a should...

      So why does it seem as if the underdog loses more?

      Because the underdog needs to win more times in a row to survive...
      And the odds are always against that (THAT is why he's the underdog...the odds are against him/her...)

      For example, your hand: 52o has about 33% against AKs!!!
      You're NORMALLY supposed to lose about 1 time in 3...

      Now, this also means, for example, that the odds of losing that same encounter 3 times in a row are around 4%... Quite a lot! consider that you can play hundreds of hands per should be seeing things like that quite often...

      As to what I said about the underdog having to win more times - EVEN if you have AA and have 85% over a random hand (and we'll EVEN assume the opponent is not very good or selective). What do you think are your odds of winning 10 times in a row with these AA hands? about 10% only... and 5 times? around 32%...

      So yeah, being with a short stack isn't really good, but it does NOT mean you should give up when you're the underdog.

      Shaving off EVEN just another ~5% or less from the rare cases when you do make a comeback is JUST as important as gaining 5% more by playing better when you're ahead.

      Good luck :)
    • mariobros00
      Joined: 18.03.2011 Posts: 21
      hi guys, thanks for the replays.

      i agree with you guys about what you said, but that only applies for life poker where cards are dealt randomly and where variance makes sense.

      online poker has no variance, it's just an ARCADE game of poker where the odds always lean toward the big stake at the table, i've been underdog and i've been chip leader and i can tell u the difference is staggering, especially on and after the bubble, the play just becomes ridiculous, i'm not speaking only about myself, i do watch tournaments when i'm not playing and i see how the lower stakes get bust out before, on, and after the bubble, it just becomes whatever and the odds get violated repeatedly by the big stakes. i must say you cant complaint about it when you have a big stake at that moment, you just need to hold your urges of plying smart poker and play like a donk, because you know everything you play holds most of the time, i recently called and allin of a 5/1 underdog with 10 3 offsuit, he had KQo, and i won the hand, you see i dont even play 10 3 let along calling an allin full ring with it.

      sorry but i think the key to success in online poker MTT is to learn and master the software with of course the basics of life poker.

      i mean i saw ELKE GROSSPELIER folding KK on the turn where the board showed XAAA, on the final table last 2 players in a SCOOP tournament, i mean how many times you just put you opponent on quads no matter how the hand was played when you hold KK, because guess what, the other player had A3 :D , cant remember how the hand was played but still, it's a noway fold for me, i would have put him on a set of aces but when the turn is A too, it becomes less likely that he holds an A
      (they showed the hand on that stupid SCOOP online show)

      it's like ELKE just knew he was being sat up, and immediately released his hand when the bigger stake put him all in, rather than putting his opponent on a bluff or a lower fullhouse and call.
      ELKE ended up winning the tournament.

      anyway, this is my last bust out i thought about sharing it with you,

      i had like 14BB i limped and the chip leader raised me and i called, in this situation i always fold against huge stakes, but this time the big stake just won a hand with 10 10, flop gave him another 10 against pocket JJ. i thought he was just bullying on the button. plus it's a $0,10 buyin.

      he C-bets me on the flop, i played back, he called, i checked on the turn and he put me allin, i felt i was beat but just couldnt put him on a hand and i wanted also to see what he had. especially when they set me up with the fucking J on the flop on a small board,

      whats funny is that they always close the table after they set someone up, lol trust me i've witnessed it so many times. :tongue:

    • mariobros00
      Joined: 18.03.2011 Posts: 21
      hahahaha check this one out

      that donk has won like 80% of the pots played
    • intercect
      Joined: 01.10.2010 Posts: 1,122
      The elky-hand was played like this, in the $25k HU SCOOP tournament.

      Elky raised button w/ KK to 3x. Opponent called.

      Flop came AAx, elky bet, and opponent called. Turn was another ace, opponent donked almost pott, elky raised, and the other guy came over the top w/ a minraise. Elky dropped it.
    • NightFrostaSS
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
    • mariobros00
      Joined: 18.03.2011 Posts: 21
      lol, another one from today

      same AJ against big "donk" stake

      but dont worry, i'm learning :D
    • Wriggers
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Originally posted by mariobros00

      anyway, this is my last bust out i thought about sharing it with you,

      i had like 14BB i limped and the chip leader raised me and i called
      Wait, excuse me? You had 14bb and you limped in with AJ, and proceeded to lose against the best hand? You're complaining about that?

      I'm confused...

      [ ] Proof that Stars is rigged.
    • mariobros00
      Joined: 18.03.2011 Posts: 21

      i'm not complaining about my AJ losing to the best hand, my point was that once you have a big stake you become like a black hole to the lower stakes, you just keep winning hand after hand. it became so obvious that you're able to call the card thats gonna show up on the river, and so often you get runner runner to make a straight in all in situations.

      the one must be an idiot not to notice the same scenarios that keep repeating themselves in those fixed MTTs and SNGs

      for me it goes like this:

      on and after the bubble, when a lower stake enters a pot against a higher stake, it's either they double up, get a big hit at their stake, or bust out.
      since the the second situation is not an option, they tend to go for the double up, but they end up busting out most of the times no matter what hand they play.
      pretty much they are only dealt strong hands that are dominated, medium pairs that dont hold up, or hands they cant fold after the flop that have them drawing dead on the turn and river, if not dead already.

      as for AA, KK, QQ, JJ, whenever you get those when you're short, it's game over baby :D

      idk about you guys but that doesnt sound like variance to me.

      anyway.. peace out =)
    • Jim4rdo
      Joined: 03.10.2010 Posts: 1,252
      Originally posted by mariobros00
      as for AA, KK, QQ, JJ, whenever you get those when you're short, it's game over baby :D
    • NoOneSpcl
      Joined: 03.04.2011 Posts: 118
      That kind of thinking will get you nowhere. Actually, that's not completely true, as it would get you bankrupt fast.

      Variance and odds are the SAME in online poker as in live games. This is shown from every large database of every player who tried to claim otherwise.

      These things are strictly regulated by outside sources.

      I guarantee you that in a database of 100k+ hands you'll find results averaging very close to what you should be expecting according to the odds.

      No one has ever been able to show a database of a few 100K hands that shows otherwise (and EVERY player who has played for a year or 2+ has one).

      The only reasons for thinking otherwise are psychological:
      Humans tend to pay special attention to the facts that go along with their beliefs and disregard the evidence/occurrences that contradict them.

      You can even give thousands of examples where the odds favorite lost an all in battle. That's normal. But I assure you that in a large database thou shalt find more instances of the odds favorite winning.

      You will lose thousands, even more times where you're the favorite. complaining about the odds being in favor of X will just prevent you from working on what's important: your decisions. MUCH more than the results.
      if individual results bother you, then that's a problem...

      Focus on what you can control without complaining and I assure you suddenly you'll be doing much better and change your mind.
    • ZeroDegrees
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 743
      Well, there's also something called rush. Like "in the zone" and such. Doyle talks about it in his big poker book "Super system". He plays all hands after a gr8 win no matter what or price. Add some moderation to that! I have had rushes where I kept winning with worse starting hands than my opponents and also vice versa. Example: recently I kept losing with 80% chance or so on turn no matter what. L8r on another table I got a player tilted against me, may have been the same who sucked me out so much b4. This time he was the favorite and I sucked him out all the time. About the MTT be a little more alert after a big pot. But we cant fold aces pre flop anyway. But we can take a little rest with middle cards after a big loss.

    • Justin37
      Joined: 25.07.2009 Posts: 445
      Underdog dont ussually lose out. This week i have been underdog twice and managed to get into money list :)
    • ilrasso
      Joined: 05.05.2010 Posts: 49
      Remember that when playing an MTT, theres a very small probability to win even if played by a world class pro. Especially ofc the ones with big fields. If u get aces 10 times and go all in against a bigger stack, u will probably loose. Youll win most ofc, but u only need to loose one 80/20'% flip against a bigger stack and its byebye.

      Also rembmer that if u play an mtt with 1000 entries and manage to win just once every 250 times you will probably profit. (i didnt check this number might be off - hipshot guestimate)

      That also means that if ur good enough to win 1/250 variance might show you 1000 non-wins before u start running better.

      I can give 2 pieces of advice here.

      1. Learn to deal with the brutal facts of variance and deep fields. Dont get frustrated if u played 10 mtts and had no deep runs, as long as u honestly believe u made the right plays.

      2. To reduce variance some options are available through style of play. A lot of successfull MTT players (i belive) play very strategically. I mean far from ABC ring game poker. Playing each level differently, taking risks to gain early chip lead, punish the opponents who are weak at different stages etc.

      Steals and resteals when done right will also help to reduce variance as a folding opponent cant hit anything :D Keep ur eye out for places u can win a pot without showdown.

      Nuff ramblings from me right now - good luck at tables