This site uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. By continuing to browse the website, you accept such cookies. For more details and to change your settings, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy. Close

[NL2-NL10] NL10 - MSS, AK in MP2, raise in multiway

    • BadeaCelRau
      Joined: 15.10.2010 Posts: 2,122
      Hand converted with online hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      MP2 (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, A.
      UTG2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, MP3 folds, CO calls $0.50, 2 folds, BB calls $0.40, MP1 calls $0.40.

      Flop: ($2.05) Q, 2, K (4 players)
      BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $1.50, CO raises to $3.00, BB folds, MP1 folds, Hero folds, CO gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $3.55.

      Villain stats in 1115 hands :
      11(vpip)/9(pfr)/67(f 3bet)/26(steal)
      58(fcbet)/33(f 2nd barrel)/27(wtsd)/2.3(af)
      call open : 5%; 3bet 3%

      I think this regular shows much strength when he raises and I don't think he is doing it with KJ so his range is probably : KQ,22, +/-AK which he might 3bet or not (I think he is a standard BSSer)

      This is the equity, and the pot odds are 2/9 (22%) so the call is kinda close but I'm not sure about his range and his minraise, instead of going allin, what could be the message?

      Board: K:diamond: Q:spade: 2:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP3    29.09%   9.84%  19.25% { AhKs }
      CO     70.91%  51.66%  19.25% { 22, AKs, KQs, AKo, KQo }
  • 2 replies
    • burek2000
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey BadeaCelRau,

      Without any reads I prefer to fold to his minraise. If he does raise with AK as well then your all-in is slightly +EV while if he only does so with 22, KQ and QQ+ then your call is -EV a lot. So, I would prefer to avoid the variance and potential -EV move by bet/folding.

      By the way, I say he could have QQ+ here because if he is good reg he won't 3-bet those hands preflop in order to keep the fish(MP1) in the pot.

      Best regards,
    • BadeaCelRau
      Joined: 15.10.2010 Posts: 2,122
      Yeah, this hand haunted me for the rest of the day and eventually I reached the conclusion that QQ is certainly in the range, maybe even KK, AA.