[NL2-NL10] NL10 - MSS, AK in MP2, raise in multiway

    • BadeaCelRau
      BadeaCelRau
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.10.2010 Posts: 2,122
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      UTG2:
      $9.14
      MP1:
      $7.51
      MP2 (Hero):
      $4.00
      MP3:
      $10.09
      CO:
      $11.61
      BU:
      $15.21
      SB:
      $3.40
      BB:
      $3.50


      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, A.
      UTG2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, MP3 folds, CO calls $0.50, 2 folds, BB calls $0.40, MP1 calls $0.40.

      Flop: ($2.05) Q, 2, K (4 players)
      BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $1.50, CO raises to $3.00, BB folds, MP1 folds, Hero folds, CO gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $3.55.

      Villain stats in 1115 hands :
      11(vpip)/9(pfr)/67(f 3bet)/26(steal)
      58(fcbet)/33(f 2nd barrel)/27(wtsd)/2.3(af)
      call open : 5%; 3bet 3%

      I think this regular shows much strength when he raises and I don't think he is doing it with KJ so his range is probably : KQ,22, +/-AK which he might 3bet or not (I think he is a standard BSSer)

      This is the equity, and the pot odds are 2/9 (22%) so the call is kinda close but I'm not sure about his range and his minraise, instead of going allin, what could be the message?

      Board: K:diamond: Q:spade: 2:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP3    29.09%   9.84%  19.25% { AhKs }
      CO     70.91%  51.66%  19.25% { 22, AKs, KQs, AKo, KQo }
  • 2 replies
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey BadeaCelRau,

      Without any reads I prefer to fold to his minraise. If he does raise with AK as well then your all-in is slightly +EV while if he only does so with 22, KQ and QQ+ then your call is -EV a lot. So, I would prefer to avoid the variance and potential -EV move by bet/folding.

      By the way, I say he could have QQ+ here because if he is good reg he won't 3-bet those hands preflop in order to keep the fish(MP1) in the pot.

      Best regards,
      burek2000
    • BadeaCelRau
      BadeaCelRau
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.10.2010 Posts: 2,122
      Yeah, this hand haunted me for the rest of the day and eventually I reached the conclusion that QQ is certainly in the range, maybe even KK, AA.