Am I wasting my time playing NL 0.01/0.02?

    • whytheluckystrike
      whytheluckystrike
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.03.2010 Posts: 46
      {Original posted in the FTP forum but I think it's more appropriate to post it here instead.}


      I'm playing SSS at FTP and I've been grinding for around 20k hands and have seen 0% growth in my BR. SSS seems to be one step forward and then one step back.

      I think I've followed the strategy really well, I've table selected a lot, avoided other SSS players and I've not been on tilt once.

      Maybe 20k is too low a sample size but is there a reason why I'm wasting my time at the lowest level? Still finding it hard to calculate the rakeback I'm getting (if any at all).

      I have the BR to move up a level but with the amount of fish at these stakes (someone went all in K3o Pre, the other day) how can I move up if I cant make it here?

      I also read that some people say these stakes are "unbeatable", I don't know why not.

      The saying "Pissing in the wind" seems to come to mind at the moment.

      Any advice would be great,

      Tom
  • 8 replies
    • conradmafer
      conradmafer
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.09.2010 Posts: 161
      I'm playing MSS on NL2 and I have 1.6bb/100 winrate after 7k hands... :f_mad: Maybe it's easier to win on higher limits? Because people get more emotional with bigger money, I don't know...
    • zwink
      zwink
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.06.2009 Posts: 12
      Also another thing that hurts ALOT is 10% rake at ftp at micros. if MSS is only supposed to win maximum 2-3bb/100, 10% rake makes it barely break even. Look how much you've paid in rake and imagine if rake was only 5% like it is at higher limits.
    • Elroch
      Elroch
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.02.2011 Posts: 150
      Originally posted by conradmafer
      I'm playing MSS on NL2 and I have 1.6bb/100 winrate after 7k hands... :f_mad: Maybe it's easier to win on higher limits? Because people get more emotional with bigger money, I don't know...
      It's worth putting error bounds on it to give you a clearer idea of what you can infer. eg (using maximum likelihood estimators for simplicity) if your standard deviation was 40bb/100, you have won 112 bb in 7k and the standard deviation on 7000 hands is sqrt(7000/100)*40=334 bb. Using a 2 standard deviation band, you wouldn't have much idea of your true win rate.

      Don't take this as gospel - an SD of 40bb/100 was just a guess - but if you do the calculation with the correct value and remember that you have 5% chance of being either more than 2 standard deviations above or below your true win rate, you will see that you shouldn't make very strong conclusions from your results so far.

      In principle, using all-in EV would significantly improve the calculation, but I am not sure any HUD will yet tell you the standard deviation on the all-in EV (this is smaller than the SD on the actual money).
    • fusionpk
      fusionpk
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,683
      Move to BSS, play poker :f_cool:

      Seriously though, if you're going to be playing 2NL, get yourself on BSS, following correct strategy you will have great big edge on the fish, and 2NL is full of fish, why take only 20bb or whatever off them when u can take the full 100bb :)
    • conradmafer
      conradmafer
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.09.2010 Posts: 161
      fusionpk I got your point, but MSS is also great for rakeback grinding and honestly that's why I play it and I guess many other MSS players. I couldn't profitably play BSS on 16-24 tables and I can play MSS like that, it's just easier. I know a lot of you say that's not a real poker or something, but I think you just don't like middle stacks slowly taking your money away at tables :s_biggrin:
    • gadget51
      gadget51
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.06.2008 Posts: 5,622
      Everybody wants rakeback and to complain of a useless winrate.

      Quote: 'I'm playing MSS on NL2 and I have 1.6bb/100 winrate after 7k hands..'
      Sigh; you're not playing nl2 to get a good winrate, you're there to learn how to play...and 7k is zero.
    • jacktwo
      jacktwo
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.06.2010 Posts: 4
      I started playing SSS NL2 on PartyPoker, this is my stats for last weekend..
      Little rough at first, but it's doable.
    • tatisan
      tatisan
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.06.2010 Posts: 506
      Originally posted by zwink
      Also another thing that hurts ALOT is 10% rake at ftp at micros. if MSS is only supposed to win maximum 2-3bb/100, 10% rake makes it barely break even. Look how much you've paid in rake and imagine if rake was only 5% like it is at higher limits.
      Ftp rake is 1c for every 15c in the pot Thus 7.5%. Minus rake-back is 5,475%.

      http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/rake.php