This site uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. By continuing to browse the website, you accept such cookies. For more details and to change your settings, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy. Close

[NL20-NL50] [SH NL25-50] c/c down A high

    • StaticMoth
      StaticMoth
      Silver
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Would like to get some thoughts on hands like this one:

      Preflop I look at his standard stats
      Villain 20/18/4.8AF/75% Fvs3bet/12% 4bet

      @BB = nitty player who will almost always fold so not worried about playing this in an OOP sandwich.

      @Flop I look at the following stats:
      Raise 1st in = @EP 10% / @MP 12% / @CO 41%
      Flop cbet 89% / AFq = 50%
      Turn cbet 75% / AFq 62%
      River cbet 0% / AFq 14%


      So, his opening range@CO widens a LOT ...
      He like to double barrel a LOT and gives up a lot of rivers/rly passive there

      Flop rly dry, vs his range almost always the best hand ...
      Don't want to donk coz he's rly aggro @ flop & turn ...
      Also c/r on such a dry board is BS ...

      I could donk the turn, but again ... he has super high AF & AFq ...
      Not much has changed, so I c/c again ...

      If he bets river I can fold easily and if he checks behind I win almost always.

      I know a lot of the nits out there would be saying "it's burning money, just give it up" etc ...

      I know, it's thin but it should be +EV right?

      I mean it's all about odds ...

      Yeah, I know I don't have HUGE equity or anything on such a board even vs his super wide range ...

      But I do get the right price on both streets for the equity that I do have vs his range and his tendencies/statistics also speak for themselves ...


      Flame on boys & girls =)



      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($43)
      BB ($27.64)
      UTG ($36.83)
      UTG+1 ($43.38)
      CO ($26.43)
      BTN ($60.26)

      Dealt to Hero J:spade: A:diamond:

      fold, fold, CO raises to $0.85, fold, Hero calls $0.75, fold

      FLOP ($1.95) 2:club: 3:heart: 8:spade:

      Hero checks, CO bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25

      TURN ($4.45) 2:club: 3:heart: 8:spade: T:diamond:

      Hero checks, CO bets $3, Hero calls $3

      RIVER ($10.45) 2:club: 3:heart: 8:spade: T:diamond: 4:club:

      Hero checks, CO checks

      CO shows A:spade: 9:club:
      (Pre 27%, Flop 14.3%, Turn 6.8%)

      Hero shows J:spade: A:diamond:
      (Pre 73%, Flop 85.7%, Turn 93.2%)

      Hero wins $9.93


      Pretty much the same story in this hand, but vs this guy I was planing on calling down all streets coz ... (possibly folding only if T or Q hits)
      51% steal@SB and rly high barreling frequencies on all streets (and don't tell me it's sample ... I have 6,8k hands on the guy ! (but no personal history vs him))

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($59.25)
      Hero ($60.10)
      CO ($98)
      BTN ($50.75)

      Dealt to Hero A:heart: J:spade:

      fold, fold, SB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1

      FLOP ($3) 9:diamond: 2:spade: 8:heart:

      SB bets $2, Hero calls $2

      TURN ($7) 9:diamond: 2:spade: 8:heart: 4:heart:

      SB bets $4, Hero calls $4

      RIVER ($15) 9:diamond: 2:spade: 8:heart: 4:heart: A:spade:

      SB bets $9, Hero calls $9

      SB shows Q:heart: K:heart:
      (Pre 44%, Flop 26.9%, Turn 31.8%)

      Hero shows A:heart: J:spade:
      (Pre 56%, Flop 73.1%, Turn 68.2%)

      Hero wins $31.40
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      1) I think it is fine. Although I´d likely just raise on the turn rather than call him down if I think he is barreling too often
      2) If you don´t 3-bet pf, then I also like it. AJ is likely a little too strong to fold on the turn barrel.