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[NL20-NL50] [SH NL25-50] c/c down A high

    • StaticMoth
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Would like to get some thoughts on hands like this one:

      Preflop I look at his standard stats
      Villain 20/18/4.8AF/75% Fvs3bet/12% 4bet

      @BB = nitty player who will almost always fold so not worried about playing this in an OOP sandwich.

      @Flop I look at the following stats:
      Raise 1st in = @EP 10% / @MP 12% / @CO 41%
      Flop cbet 89% / AFq = 50%
      Turn cbet 75% / AFq 62%
      River cbet 0% / AFq 14%

      So, his opening range@CO widens a LOT ...
      He like to double barrel a LOT and gives up a lot of rivers/rly passive there

      Flop rly dry, vs his range almost always the best hand ...
      Don't want to donk coz he's rly aggro @ flop & turn ...
      Also c/r on such a dry board is BS ...

      I could donk the turn, but again ... he has super high AF & AFq ...
      Not much has changed, so I c/c again ...

      If he bets river I can fold easily and if he checks behind I win almost always.

      I know a lot of the nits out there would be saying "it's burning money, just give it up" etc ...

      I know, it's thin but it should be +EV right?

      I mean it's all about odds ...

      Yeah, I know I don't have HUGE equity or anything on such a board even vs his super wide range ...

      But I do get the right price on both streets for the equity that I do have vs his range and his tendencies/statistics also speak for themselves ...

      Flame on boys & girls =)

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($43)
      BB ($27.64)
      UTG ($36.83)
      UTG+1 ($43.38)
      CO ($26.43)
      BTN ($60.26)

      Dealt to Hero J:spade: A:diamond:

      fold, fold, CO raises to $0.85, fold, Hero calls $0.75, fold

      FLOP ($1.95) 2:club: 3:heart: 8:spade:

      Hero checks, CO bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25

      TURN ($4.45) 2:club: 3:heart: 8:spade: T:diamond:

      Hero checks, CO bets $3, Hero calls $3

      RIVER ($10.45) 2:club: 3:heart: 8:spade: T:diamond: 4:club:

      Hero checks, CO checks

      CO shows A:spade: 9:club:
      (Pre 27%, Flop 14.3%, Turn 6.8%)

      Hero shows J:spade: A:diamond:
      (Pre 73%, Flop 85.7%, Turn 93.2%)

      Hero wins $9.93

      Pretty much the same story in this hand, but vs this guy I was planing on calling down all streets coz ... (possibly folding only if T or Q hits)
      51% steal@SB and rly high barreling frequencies on all streets (and don't tell me it's sample ... I have 6,8k hands on the guy ! (but no personal history vs him))

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($59.25)
      Hero ($60.10)
      CO ($98)
      BTN ($50.75)

      Dealt to Hero A:heart: J:spade:

      fold, fold, SB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1

      FLOP ($3) 9:diamond: 2:spade: 8:heart:

      SB bets $2, Hero calls $2

      TURN ($7) 9:diamond: 2:spade: 8:heart: 4:heart:

      SB bets $4, Hero calls $4

      RIVER ($15) 9:diamond: 2:spade: 8:heart: 4:heart: A:spade:

      SB bets $9, Hero calls $9

      SB shows Q:heart: K:heart:
      (Pre 44%, Flop 26.9%, Turn 31.8%)

      Hero shows A:heart: J:spade:
      (Pre 56%, Flop 73.1%, Turn 68.2%)

      Hero wins $31.40
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      1) I think it is fine. Although I´d likely just raise on the turn rather than call him down if I think he is barreling too often
      2) If you don´t 3-bet pf, then I also like it. AJ is likely a little too strong to fold on the turn barrel.