[NL20-NL50] NL25 2xAA

    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
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      HAND #1
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      Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
      LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

      MP1: $25.35
      MP2: $30.70
      Hero (CO): $25
      BTN: $27.80
      SB: $38.60
      BB: $36.90
      UTG: $4.40
      UTG+1: $30.30

      Pre-Flop: A:diamond: A:spade: dealt to Hero (CO)
      3 folds, MP2 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, BTN folds, SB calls $1.15, BB folds, MP2 calls $1

      Flop: ($4) 3:club: K:club: T:diamond: (3 Players)
      SB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $4, SB folds, MP2 calls $4

      Turn: ($12) A:club: (2 Players)
      MP2 checks, Hero ?

      I bet potsize on this drawy flop, and get one caller. The turn is an awkward card. Almost every straight draw and every flush draw just got there. A single club or a J or Q is still drawing. I have ten outs to improve to the nuts. If I bet $9 here, I can call any push with the correct odds if I am beaten. This looks like a better spot for pot control, check behind, and punish the guy if I hit the river. What's the consensus?

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      HAND #2
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      Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
      LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

      UTG: $23.20
      UTG+1: $66.25
      MP: $6.50
      Hero (CO): $47.45
      BTN: $30.30
      SB: $21.10
      BB: $8.50

      Pre-Flop: A:club: A:heart: dealt to Hero (CO)
      UTG raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 3 folds, UTG calls $2

      Flop: ($6.35) 5:heart: 9:spade: 8:heart: (2 Players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $4, UTG calls $4

      Turn: ($14.35) T:spade: (2 Players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $10, UTG raises to $16.20 and is All-In, Hero calls $6.20

      I had him on an overpair, most likely QQ, or JJ.
  • 20 replies
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Hand 2 : Easy and good decision

      Hand 1 : I'd bet it 2/3 [8$]. If he's still drawing, he won't get any implieds for me. I wouldn't put him on QJ oop immediately, though a made flush is plausible. No reason to assume the worst to be certain though, so I bet it and fold to a decent sized reraise.
      If he calls, the river is a push if we makes the nuts, a fold if another drawy card comes and a call if a blank comes and his bet is mediocre (or checkbehind if given the chance)
      He might have a flush there, but he might also have an underset or a double pair that he'd go all the way with (it is NL25 after all).

      Checking behind on that turn might be a little too weak. I would bet such an amount though, that I don't have to call a push and at the same time give him bad odds to draw (with me giving no implied odds) ... I you bet 9-12 $ like most would, you have to call push. If you bet 6-8 $, you can still fold to a push. I tend to avoid having to call for pot odds or pot committed reasons in advance, I just dislike them too much :D
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hand 1: Checking behind or bet/fold is too weak. He could hold set, two pair or pair and flushdraw and you might fold the best hand. I would like to bet 9-10$:D no obvious reason. Seems stronger than 8:)
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      Sonic is right though, Kaitz. If I do bet $9 or $10, I have to call a push. I only have 19.25 left in my stack, and the betsize you suggest would give me the odds I need to call, even if he pushes with the flush. So this is very marginal.

      Against a made flush or straight, I have 22.7% equity, about 1:3.6. A $9 bet faced with a c/r AI would give me 40.75:10.75, 1:3.88. An $8 bet would give me 39.75:11.75, 1:3.38. First would be a call, second a fold. Unless we could say that in a small percentage of cases, a c/r would be a bluff. Then, it's near enough to call anyhow. But I don't see too many people being stupid enough to check raise expecting a fold from a better hand, so that nearly always indicates strength.

      So the question is, is it best to a) bet this turn, and fold to a c/r, b) bet enough so that a call would be +EV, or c) check behind, and risk the drawing hand that would still call without correct odds improving on the free card which didn't help me.

      In every case where I am actually beaten, check behind is obviously best. The question is, how often am I beaten here? Given the preflop action, the drawy board, and the flop caller, I think often enough so that check behind, catching the tricky player when I do improve, is probably best.

      He must then bet the river. If I miss, I can either call a small bet, or fold. If I hit, he gets raised, and mostly, it is his stack.

      What about that?
    • Nunki
      Nunki
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      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by aciddrop

      So the question is, is it best to a) bet this turn, and fold to a c/r, b) bet enough so that a call would be +EV, or c) check behind, and risk the drawing hand that would still call without correct odds improving on the free card which didn't help me.

      In every case where I am actually beaten, check behind is obviously best. The question is, how often am I beaten here? Given the preflop action, the drawy board, and the flop caller, I think often enough so that check behind, catching the tricky player when I do improve, is probably best.

      a)Putting in half a stack and folding can hardly ever be right.

      b)A common mis-application of logic: the implication is that you make a sufficiently large -EV decision in order to be able to make a marginally +EV decision at a later point in the hand. -EV overall.

      c)Unless this villain is really loose you do not lose much value by checking (eg.33,KT,AT) since that A :club: often scares him too. I'd check the turn.
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
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      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      a) and c) I agree completely. c) will be my default line in this situation from now on.

      With b), it has to be considered whether villain is checking because he still hasn't hit, or intending to c/r because he made it. If I think I am already beaten, it would be crazy to bet, the free card is a huge mistake on villains part. He had the implied odds to call the flop with a FD, OESD or combo draw, if I don't pay that extra, he loses. By not forcing me to pay, he costs himself money.

      He won't necessarily know that I have top set, with 10 outs to beat him, so his mistake won't be obvious to him. In any case, I think checking behind here is by far the best move. I couldn't bet/fold this.

      If the turn card improves his draw to FD + gutshot (Q :club: Tx for example), and by checking behind I run the risk of losing to that, I think that is a risk worth taking. This will be a minority of cases, by a pretty big margin I think.
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
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      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Well, checking isn't wrong, but I still think there's some value lost and it isn't EV- to bet a mediocre amount into it as to balance reversed odds vs current equity.
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
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      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      Betting a mediocre amount. What would that be? I have contributed $5.25 to the pot so far. Not my money anymore. If I bet $8, and anything less wouldn't make much sense, more than half my stack is in the middle.

      Against a made hand, most likely a flush, I will lose 77.8% roughly of the time. So, if I bet and he folds, no gain. If I bet and he raises, I lose my bet, because I have to fold. If I bet and he calls, unimproved I will still lose the same amount of the time, if he has the made hand, or improves on the river while I don't.

      It seems to me I could burn a lot of money by bet/folding in this spot.
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
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      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Yea I see what you mean. As I said, a check is fine as well, but I can't help but think I give a lot of information away (about not having the flush) by checking and that makes it easy for them to push you off on the river with a worse hand, or so I'd be inclined to believe.
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
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      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      That is true. But at this point, by checking behind, I have only put $4 in the postflop pot to the river.

      I can call a reasonable bet here unimproved. Surely I will win sometimes.

      I will improve 22% of the time. I have position, so this makes my hand very powerful. The slow player and the bluffer will both pay me off big time. Anyone else will pretty much check fold anyway.

      I had no stats on this guy at the time, and I only have 18 hands on him now. So he is pretty much unknown.
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
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      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Ok, that makes perfect sense. Well, I hope my use of difficult words and grammar made me sound less stupid than the content of my posts would've lead you to believe then :D
    • Gungunhana
      Gungunhana
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      Joined: 26.02.2007 Posts: 429
      Considering his limp/call raise pf and the fact that A,K clubs are on the table, I think a made flush or straight are not probable. I´d put him on small/medium pp or KQ, AJ,because I can´t see him calling a raise, from MP2 with something like QJ, or two clubs. In this case a $9-$10 turn bet would most likely make him fold, but you still need protection, so I´d bet $8 as well and call a raise.
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
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      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      One more thing though.
      I read on this forum in similar situations that you have to go all the way when you would've had a straight there on a possible flush board, I must have seen that being said multiple times. Is a straight with 0 outs to improvement so much better than a set with 10 outs then ???
    • Thorsten77
      Thorsten77
      Black
      Joined: 28.05.2006 Posts: 12,896
      1. I bet/call: I don't think its likely that he plays l/c with a suited connector. Even if I'm behind I have 10 Outs.

      2. nh
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
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      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      Originally posted by SonicXT
      Is a straight with 0 outs to improvement so much better than a set with 10 outs then ???
      Well, about 3.6 times better. :)

      Originally posted by Gungunhana
      I´d put him on small/medium pp or KQ, AJ,because I can´t see him calling a raise, from MP2 with something like QJ, or two clubs.
      Unknown at NL25 FTP. Do I need to say anymore?

      No small pocket pair should call that flop. (Then again, it is NL25 at Full Tilt) Tens could be slow playing. KT shouldn't have called preflop either. (NL25 Full Tilt) The only other cards that make sense are straight/flush combo draws, either OESD with single club, or two clubs with gutshot or OESD, hands that also shouldn't have called preflop. Then again.....lets face it, nothing should have called preflop, but two somethings did.

      I think we all agree that bet/fold is a no-no. Against 2 pair or a set, I am in front, and can't reasonably lose whatever happens. I may miss value by checking behind on the turn, but I think I will pick it up on the river when I am bet into. Against a straight or flush I lose 77.2% of the time. This means, for an investment of $19.75, which is the rest of my stack, and I will be pushed all in, I get 22.8% of $51.50, which is about $11.75. That isn't +EV.

      So by checking behind, I still beat most of the hands I am already beating, and will get river value if I would have gotten turn value, and avoid a losing bet when I am beaten, which is going to be often on this board, regardless of what people "should" have called with.

      The difference between these two hands, and why I guess I posted them, is that hand two is straightforward. I knew what I was up against, a raiser who only called a reraise, and got the money in when I was ahead. He was holding QQ, and he rivered me with a J, but that is beside the point. I was 85% favorite when the money went in. Clearly +EV.

      Hand one, not so simple. Limp/callers, should only have low pp, but could have anything, and suited cards are a favourite. Whenever I get called like this on a FD/straight flop, the caller is overwhelmingly drawing to that board. If the turn card was some other club, not the Ace, I wouldn't expect to be ahead, and could block bet/fold. The Ace gives me hidden strength here I think, but even less reason to bet. I now have a draw to beat the flush and the opportunity to bet if that happens.

      As it happens, I did bet $10, and got c/r all in. He showed Q :club: 9 :club: , and I didn't improve.

      I'm trying to learn how to minimise my losses in poker, and part of that is understanding that my opponents aren't playing correctly to begin with. I can't only put them on the hands that they "should" have in making decisions. My instinct told me that the Ace was a bad card because it was a club. I made a bet anyway that gave me odds to call an all in, but that was
      Originally posted by Nunki
      b)A common mis-application of logic: the implication is that you make a sufficiently large -EV decision in order to be able to make a marginally +EV decision at a later point in the hand. -EV overall.
      and, TOTALLY against my instinct in the moment. I am going with instinct from now on.

      Hand two, I will play that till I drop, and I never doubted for a second that I was correct. My gut told me that too.
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
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      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Originally posted by aciddrop
      Originally posted by SonicXT
      Is a straight with 0 outs to improvement so much better than a set with 10 outs then ???
      Well, about 3.6 times better. :)
      No it's not ...
      It is facing eachother, but that's not the case. Your opponent either has a flush, the straight, lower set or even DP.
      It's a set worse than a straight against that range was my question and 3.6:1 is just too simple of an answer.

      Equilator time ;)
      Set of A versus Flush on turn : 22.2 %
      Straight versus Flush on turn : 0 %
      Set of A versus Straight on turn : 22.7 %
      Straight versus Straight on turn : 50 %
      Set of A versus underset on turn : 93.2 %
      Straight versus underset on turn : 72.7 %

      Conclusion : You'll have to give your opponent a likelyhood of which ranges you think are more likely to be held by your opponent.
      Your odds on the turn then are : p(Flush)*Equity(Flush) + p(Straight)*Equity(Straight) + p(Underset)*Equity(Underset)
      Given these equilator results this gives the following equation

      Equity(Set) = 0.222 p(flush) + 0.227 p(straight) + 0.932 p(set)
      Equity(Straight) = 0 + 0.5 p(straight) + 0.727 p(set)

      Therefore, it's more than plausible that a set is worth just a little more than a straight in this position. Yet still, PokerStrategy hand judges often say "go for it/protect" if you have a straight and "pot control" if you have a set on a drawy board. Given the outcome of my calculations, that just doesn't seem consistent nor logical.

      And yes, I'm taking this quite far ... but I just can't stand inconsistencies :)
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
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      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      Well, a set can never be worth more than a flush, or a straight, in this position. Against a range, maybe, but not against either a flush or a straight, with no other possibilities, and your question was whether a straight with zero outs was much better than a set with 10. My answer was accurate, in that it addressed that question directly.

      I'm not saying that I have to put them only on that hand, but I did think that the turn card was dangerous for the reasons of flush draw.

      But consider this position in the event that they are holding an underset. They have slow played the flop, not unreasonably, and I am now beating them on the turn, where probably they had intended a c/r. Since I didn't bet, they now have to bet into me on the river. Depending on the size of that bet, I can now call if I want, or, if I hit, take their stack. I'm not going to lose much that I would have won by betting on the turn, as I have position here. If they do have a set, I win 45 times out of 46, the exception being when they make their quads. And they shouldn't overbet the river, because they will want a call behind at least. I will call a small bet, and beat a set, or lose to a flush or straight, unimproved. If I improve, I will raise, and win.

      Pot control seems much more important in this situation than value betting. The value may not be there. This is such a drawy board. It fills flushes and straights.

      So, checking behind here, I believe, will lose me less in the long run than betting, when any bet puts me all in against a better hand every time.

      Remember, I only have a set here. You can calculate my equity against a flush, straight and set, but I'm not sure why you have included straight vs straight and straight vs flush, they are not possible. I may never be a good poker player, because the equity equations confuse me somewhat.

      And, I am working on the assumption here, based on my experience so far, that on this board, I will run into flushes and straights more often than sets. You can shoot that down any way you like, it is how I am approaching this situation from now on.

      If the judges are always recommending pot control with sets on a drawy board, well, I am agreeing with them now based on my calculations and experience. Interestingly, though, the hand judge recommended bet/call the push as his play here, so go figure.

      And I love the fact that you are taking an extended interest in this. With each post, I am clarifying my understanding more and more.

      EDIT: Got it now, if I give the probability of a straight vs flush vs underset as one third each, my equity is 46%, correct?

      EDIT 2: I would have contributed $25 to a $51.5 pot, which is 48.5%. Is this the right track?

      EDIT 3: Since this would make the bet/call push play -EV, then the pot control route would definitely seem correct.
    • Gungunhana
      Gungunhana
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      Joined: 26.02.2007 Posts: 429
      [quote

      I'm trying to learn how to minimise my losses in poker, and part of that is understanding that my opponents aren't playing correctly to begin with. I can't only put them on the hands that they "should" have in making decisions.
      [/quote]You have now touched a very important point. I think if we can find a way of balancing that , losses will fall drastically.
      With the invasion of donks on the sites, you face bad playing every second hand and because they came to the tables one after the other, the chances of you losing are very big.
      Question is ...how to do it?
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
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      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      I think by considering positions such as this marginal.

      More than one limp/caller or cold caller preflop.
      Drawy flop, and someone calls pot size bet.
      Draws complete on the turn.

      The question to ask here is: Am I holding the nuts?

      The answer in this case is clearly not. There are two possible draws completed which beat my original hand, and the fact that in this case I have improved unexpectedly still doesn't give me the advantage over those hands. I think pot control is essential in these cases, and being prepared to let the hand go if there is too much resistance is fine. It's far short of the best possible hand. Why play for stacks?
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
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      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Well, I'm going to reply in short because this got a little out of hand as I previously already agreed with the pot control.

      With the odds to win I stated above with a set or straight, I just wanted to point out that having a set here in this situation isn't necessarily worse than having a straight contrary to popular belief and what seemed most evident.
      Of course, there's also p(bluff), p(TP+FD) etc

      I'm not going into detail about what odds you need to make a bet call worth it because it's dependent on just too many things including the range you put the other guy on, the fold equity, the called instead of pushed odds, the size of the pot etc... too many things to calculate in a few seconds and too many uncertainties. Guess instinct's destined to prevail after all ;)
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