[NL2-NL10] NL4 SH - Hero river call w/ 2ndPLK

    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      PartyGaming - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

      SB: $3.96
      BB: $4.68
      UTG: $4.19
      CO: $4.32
      Hero (BTN): $4.90

      SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

      Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero has 6:club: T:club:

      To contextualize: villain is a "regular". very well to the weak side. 18/14 but 2% 3bet, 84% fold BB to steal, 70% fold to flop cbet. A perfect pray for blind stealing, thus I'd open any 2.

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.12, fold, BB calls $0.08

      Flop: ($0.26, 2 players) 7:club: Q:heart: T:spade:
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.18, BB calls $0.18

      As mentioned he has a fold to flop cbet of 70%. I'd cbet (almost) any 2 on any board, really.

      Turn: ($0.62, 2 players) 8:club:
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.44, BB calls $0.44

      Ok, now I've got some equity. A gutshot (which might not be clean of course) and the FD, plus the two T and three 6. I looked like an ok card to barrel even without thaaat much of FE (villain fold to turn cbet is 0 but the sample is small, I guess people don't barrel so often on NL4).

      River: ($1.50, 2 players) 3:heart:
      BB bets $0.71, Hero calls $0.71

      Wtf. The 3 of heart is a brick, so why the sudden he fires a donk?

      My thoughts: he wouldn't of course do this with a Q. I'd fold all my bluffs and missed draws (and I admit vs. him there are many on my range) and would only call with hands that beat him (a Q, 2 pair, etc) or even raise. And he doesn't want to be raised OOP on the river holding TP.

      If he was very strong (regardless of what he considers very strong) he would have check/raised flop or mostly turn, or would follow his slowplaying plan and check/raise river. Playing 9J for this villain is not completely out of question (but almost, his calling range is 4%) but this would put him on the strong lines I just mentioned.

      Nothing makes sense. Oh wait. The only reason for him to bet is ZERO showdown value. He doesn't want me to check behind because he knows he's beat anyway, so decided to at least take a stab. That could be a missed SD+underpair (even though I think villain could fold 99 or JJ on the flop really. Even against me, who am keeping pressure all the time on him).

      The other thing that could make a bit of sense is 33 who got a river gin. But not much sense as it's not villain's profile at all call 2 streets w/ such a weak holding.

      And the 3 to 1 odds were quite, quite inviting...

      Thus I made the weird call with my brave second pair, low kicker. Now I'm having identity crisis as I don't know if it makes me a thinking player or a calling station :f_biggrin:

      edit: forgot to add I have 500 hands on him, so not a great sample for advanced stats. BUT during the game I did check his river stats, and he bets 51% of rivers (23 of 45), being 15 of 31 from the blinds. Sorry but I thought that is a bit too much OOP, even if he folds a ridiculous amount OTF and keeps going only with premiums.
  • 4 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      He can show you smt like KJ or AJ so I would likely also call river.
      If players would c/c twice and lead river then they are usually not doing that with tp hand, but rather hands that improved him or missed draws and since 3c was complete brick I would call him down
    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      He can show you smt like KJ or AJ so I would likely also call river.
      If players would c/c twice and lead river then they are usually not doing that with tp hand, but rather hands that improved him or missed draws and since 3c was complete brick I would call him down
      Thanks a lot, Kaitz!

      Any other remarks regarding previous streets and/or my reasoning on them? Like betting size OTF & T, decision do bet turn, etc.

      Cheers!
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by luizsilveira
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      He can show you smt like KJ or AJ so I would likely also call river.
      If players would c/c twice and lead river then they are usually not doing that with tp hand, but rather hands that improved him or missed draws and since 3c was complete brick I would call him down
      Thanks a lot, Kaitz!

      Any other remarks regarding previous streets and/or my reasoning on them? Like betting size OTF & T, decision do bet turn, etc.

      Cheers!
      yeah, I´d also bet turn for value and turn for value/bluff/protection. bet sizes are also fine, so I don´t have anything add about flop and turn. Well played :)
    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Thanks a lot for the analysis.

      He showed KJo :f_cool: