Why r sets losing so often vs draws??

    • racenutalways
      racenutalways
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 174
      Been playing online 4 yrs, have over 2 millions hands played, 1.2 million is in my database and the numbers are terrible.

      What I mean is certain situations seem to lose hi % when you're ahead.
      Example you raise from MP 88 and flop comes 8h2c9c, you cbet 70% pot to be check raised from the BTN. Fearing the draw you reraise and get it all in, your opponent shows AQc. Set over flush draws are so common. Why are they hitting them more then 35%?

      Out of 81 such situations I lost 43 of them (53%)........ You'd think your set would improve 1/3rd of the time, but.... not in this situation. WHY?

      Or you flop top set and you and your opponent go to raising war and he shows an overpair, do you win that hand 90%? 85 such situations and lost 22=25.8%.
      For being 91% fave I'm losing 26% is excessive???????????????????

      Or you call a 3 bet with your kings and flop come AKx, to be vs a set of aces?
      75 instances I've been up vs another set, lost 41. Seeing I don't play small prs on raises this seems excessive?? Normal???

      I'm an aggressive player, I rarely cold call unless I'm trapping, so hitting these situations this often seems so odd.

      Anybody else keep paper track on certain situations and see anything amiss, I'd love to hear from you.....
  • 10 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,908
      If after 4 years you think BU can c/r you are playing the wrong game...

      Btw, in 1.2million hands you had set vs FD only 81 times?
    • racenutalways
      racenutalways
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 174
      How many hands u played?
    • Elroch
      Elroch
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      Joined: 08.02.2011 Posts: 150
      [DELETED]
    • Andyuk18
      Andyuk18
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      Joined: 06.12.2010 Posts: 527
      81 times is not a big sample. 1.2 million hands all set vs flush draw and the numbers will look better i'm sure.
    • TiciBoy
      TiciBoy
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.01.2010 Posts: 1,235
      Originally posted by EmanuelC16
      If after 4 years you think BU can c/r you are playing the wrong game...

      Btw, in 1.2million hands you had set vs FD only 81 times?
      :facepalm:
    • furculision
      furculision
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2011 Posts: 474
      Originally posted by TiciBoy
      Originally posted by EmanuelC16
      If after 4 years you think BU can c/r you are playing the wrong game...

      Btw, in 1.2million hands you had set vs FD only 81 times?
      :facepalm:


      Btw,i'm expecting someone to triple facepalm this beeyotch.
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      Originally posted by furculision
      Originally posted by TiciBoy
      Originally posted by EmanuelC16
      If after 4 years you think BU can c/r you are playing the wrong game...

      Btw, in 1.2million hands you had set vs FD only 81 times?
      :facepalm:


      Btw,i'm expecting someone to triple facepalm this beeyotch.
    • dochazard
      dochazard
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.10.2008 Posts: 61
      Originally posted by racenutalways
      Been playing online 4 yrs, have over 2 millions hands played, 1.2 million is in my database and the numbers are terrible.

      What I mean is certain situations seem to lose hi % when you're ahead.
      Example you raise from MP 88 and flop comes 8h2c9c, you cbet 70% pot to be check raised from the BTN. Fearing the draw you reraise and get it all in, your opponent shows AQc. Set over flush draws are so common. Why are they hitting them more then 35%?

      Out of 81 such situations I lost 43 of them (53%)........ You'd think your set would improve 1/3rd of the time, but.... not in this situation. WHY?

      Or you flop top set and you and your opponent go to raising war and he shows an overpair, do you win that hand 90%? 85 such situations and lost 22=25.8%.
      For being 91% fave I'm losing 26% is excessive???????????????????

      Or you call a 3 bet with your kings and flop come AKx, to be vs a set of aces?
      75 instances I've been up vs another set, lost 41. Seeing I don't play small prs on raises this seems excessive?? Normal???

      I'm an aggressive player, I rarely cold call unless I'm trapping, so hitting these situations this often seems so odd.

      Anybody else keep paper track on certain situations and see anything amiss, I'd love to hear from you.....
      1. If you are NOT exaggerating, check your software filters. 1.2M hands and just 81 HANDS set vs FD? You might not be using your whole database and just using a recent sample.

      2. Losing 26% of your 90% EV play does not sound excessive, EVEN WITH your small sample size. Again check your filters.

      3. On set Ks running up against set As: your calling against tight players who would have the preflop nuts so you expect AA in their range obviously. You would expect to lose more often than not in that case and by your numbers your actually sucking out quite a lot, if you only play big pairs turned sets against the 3bet. Take note of your opponents at the stakes that you play in that room that you play. Again, smallish sample size for 1.2M hands. The numbers are off!

      4. JUST FOR THE NOOBS LIKE ME READING THIS (I will admit to having to reread why the triple face palms): You can't be check raised by the BTN if you're CO.
    • racenutalways
      racenutalways
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 174
      After all that all you guys got out of it was a typing error.

      Gr8 minds here.

      If you guys get all in that often, you either full of it or very lucky. Just how often are you against top pair or over pr or two pair or another set or mid pr or btm pr
      or semi bluff or oak bluff?

      You actually get action each time you flop a set or do you get folded to 80%?

      P.s. Aces only got it all in "pre" flop 388 times. Does that mean I was up vs a flush draw each time???
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,908
      Originally posted by dochazard
      4. JUST FOR THE NOOBS LIKE ME READING THIS (I will admit to having to reread why the triple face palms): You can't be check raised by the BTN if you're CO.
      You can't be c/r by the BTN regardless of your position since BTN always closes the action and if BTN checks, we go to next street.