[NL20-NL50] [HU] NL 20 bad opponent check/shoves turn OMG

    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($20)

      Dealt to Hero 7:club: J:club:

      Hero raises to $0.60, calls $0.40

      FLOP ($1.20) 9:club: 3:club: J:diamond:

      checks, Hero bets $1, calls $1

      TURN ($3.20) 9:club: 3:club: J:diamond: T:diamond:

      checks, Hero bets $2.80, raises to $18.44 (AI), Hero ???

      The opponent buyed in half stack, doubled up in the first hands and after that this one comes along.

      I need >= 39% equity and I think I have that

      This is against the most tight range

      Board: 9:club: 3:club: J:diamond:  T:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    32.88%  32.09%   0.79% { Jc7c }
      MP3    67.12%  66.33%   0.79% { AJs, KQs, QJs, J9s+, T9s, 87s, AJo, QJo, J9o+, T9o, 87o, AdKd, AdQd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d }

      If we add some bluffs and semibluffs in there we get our equity. Are they realistically in his range?
  • 3 replies
    • StaticMoth
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Originally posted by DeMarcohsp

      I need >= 39% equity and I think I have that
      I don't think you do ... ppl 3bet AJ+ in HU usually ...
      So you can discount those from his range ...

      Also at the lower limits ppl play pretty straight forward ...
      Fish only slowplay the ubernuts ...

      So I would also discount J9 which he should be c/r'ing majority of the time on such a wet board.

      And I wouldn't put too many wild naked bluffs into his range either, since he should be playing his A-game after doubling up, so we can count out tilting.

      Tough spot, I'd like to know more about the opponent ...

      Yes, you have a ton of equity, but imo rarely enough to justify calling there.

      You haven't invested much in the hand, and you have TPNK with a weak/possibly crushed str8 draw ...

      So most of the times you'll essentially be putting in the money drawing for the flush and it's just not worth it without specific reads imo.
    • fusionpk
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,683
      yeah given the stack sizes on turn i think its a b/f
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      you can´t b/f with your tp+fd, since he can first shove there worse hands and second you likely have a lot of times 15 outs against smt his 9T type hands. Also he may shove worse pair+draw hands than your tp
      So I would also barrel turn and call his shove