equity, equity, equity ... )

    • KillerFishes
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 2,313
      Hi pzhon,

      I have few questions about equity in 9man SNGs ...

      I've moved to SNGs like a week ago. I've watched a lot of videos + made calculations + spent a lot of time with wiz ...

      After this "hard-working" week, I've figure out the equity ceiling....

      I pretty much understand that, you are starting with ~11% equity and you can have at most 50% for first place ... Therefore coinflip (at least 55%/45%) is profitable only from very early stage of the SNG... (as you move from 11% to 20% I guess ... That's kind of worth)...

      However, this isn't really my problem I hope I pretty much understand that :) I'm now focusing on these equity and thinking about this stuff on bubble ... It makes me confused...

      Because if I am on bubble it's 25% for everyone (equal stacks) ...

      Therefore I can't call profitably even AK do I? Ofc wiz shows call in many cases ... However, I don't understand that .. Whenever I call enemies push, who push like I don't know 20% of his range I am with AK like 60% ahead with this range right? ...

      However, if thats true it means I will have to gain like 0,25*0,6 equity to make this call profitable in the spirit of equity :)

      I think I won't ... I didn't do the exact math, however, I think a big part of that 25% will move to the other players ...

      Can we somehow talk about this stuff? I don't want to somehow spam here, however, I find this question the moooost important for me and I'm trying hard to understand it right :)

      Btw ... I'm now in schedule like 80% learning / 20% playing on 1.5$ turbos (just trying to get into the bubble push/fold) ... After just a week I think big progress, still not enough though ))

      Thank you for your answer and tips ))
  • 1 reply
    • pzhon
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      I suggest writing up particular questions which you think will have general interest. Post them here, not directed just toward me, since there are a lot of people who might be able to help, and that way others can benefit from the answers, too. If you prefer to set up a private coaching session, we could do that instead, but it might not fit into your budget if you play for microstakes, while I'll answer a lot of questions here for free.

      To answer your question about calling on the bubble, the pot odds you get matter. If the stacks were equal with no blinds, then you might need 65% equity to call a push, and then AKo would be marginal even against a 100% range. In practice, there is a significant amount of dead money. If you have posted the big blind, then folding does not take you back to the situation with 4 equal stacks. You will be the shortest stack (by a little), and that changes the reward:risk ratio.

      You can study this with my program ICM Explorer. It's shareware, which means you can download it for free, although you need to register to use some of the advanced features. If you set up the situation of 4 equal stacks of 3375, and make the blinds 150/300, then here is the "Call Push?" output when the pusher is the button ad the caller is the big blind:

      Fold: 3075 chips, 0.2356, SD: $16.33
      Win: 6900 chips, 0.3864
      Lose: 0 chips, 0
      Tie: 3450 chips, 0.2536

      Equity needed: 60.96%
      Chip odds: 44.57%
      Risk premium: 16.4%
      Chips gained by marginal call: 1131.53.
      Ties count as 65.63% of a win.
      SD of marginal call: $18.97.

      The risk premium is pretty close to what it would be with no blinds, but the blinds mean you are getting about 5:4 chip odds and you need about 4% lower equity to call. You only need about 60.96% equity against the BTN's range to call, and if you put the BTN on a 33% (Nash) range, you can call with 99+ AJs+ AQo+. AKo is a clearly profitable call, not just marginal.