[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 KQ OESD on flop

    • jozata
      Joined: 30.07.2008 Posts: 646
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      BU (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BU with Q, K.
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, SB folds, BB raises to $2.35, Hero calls $1.60.

      Flop: ($4.8) T, 6, J (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero checks.

      Turn: ($4.8) 2 (2 players)
      BB bets $3.40, Hero raises to $10.00, BB raises to $26.42, Hero calls $16.42.

      River: ($57.64) 4 (2 players)

      Final Pot: $57.64.

      Villain-unknown.I managed to play every street wrong here :f_confused: .
      Pre I call because I had an aggro image and won the previous hand so i though he could be bluff-3betting me.Is fold better?On flop I dont know why he checks this board,so should I bet here myself?On turn I dont understand why he bets the 2-so his range is either slowplayed set on flop or total air.Is there a point in raising him here?After his 3bet-shove should I have folded?
      I need 28%.
      Board: 6dJhTs2d
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 20.75% 20.75% 0.00% { KdQc }
      MP3 79.25% 79.25% 0.00% { AA, JJ-TT, 66, 22, AJs, JTs, AdKd, AJo, JTo }

      Vs such a range I am not doing well but can his range be looser so that the call would be + EV?
  • 3 replies
    • StaticMoth
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Vs unknown I would fold pre, maaaaybe call if it was suited.

      I would stab at this flop since it misses the standard 3betting range
      and give up vs a c/r. (depending on the size ofc, vs c/minr it's call etc)

      I would NEVER try to raise an unknown off of anything @turn.

      When you check back the flop, they will absolutely never ever give you any credit for a hand.

      You asked if his range can be looser?

      No, not really ... MAYBE and maybe you could only add 88-99 which now is willing to go broke since you checked back the flop.

      But that's the best case scenario - so no, not really.

      You can't put AK :diamond: in his range though since you have the K :diamond:

      But replace that with AQ :diamond: so pretty much the same.

      So I would just call the turn.

      As played, it's a fold to his shove.

      You're getting 2.5:1 which dictates you'd need about 29% equity to break even with a call there and you are faaar from that kind of equity.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      preflop is fine, but I´d bet/shove flop with your equity
      He would likely not call you down 3 streets so you should get him to fold best hand on the flop, turn or river
      Turn play is fine, although you´re not reping anything, so he may also bet/shove there with his AQ/AK type hands
    • StaticMoth
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      Turn play is fine, although you´re not reping anything, so he may also bet/shove there with his AQ/AK type hands
      Very optimistic ... I mean how can you call his shove there?
      At the very least he does have AK/AQ and those still beat us and cut down our outs.

      We have 10 outs at most (~20%) if he has those hands and ... We are faaaar off from the equity needed to call profitably, calling the turn shove is just pure spew !?

      I mean, even if we add all sorts of random semibluffs and crap in his shipping range just to be really optimistic and "hope for the best"

      We still don't get anywhere near 29% equity which is the bare minimum to break even EV wise, not to mention it still not being profitable then.

      So @NL25 and vs an unknown, calling the turn ship is hugely -EV as I see it.

      If we had the suited KQ :diamond: then obv easy ship, but with this hand it's just burning money ... short and longterm.