Hero b/3! with draw [Quiz Question Discussed].

    • datsmahname
      datsmahname
      Global
      Joined: 23.11.2009 Posts: 1,366
      I wanted to discuss question 8 in the Quiz FL Turn play OOP. Basically I do not know how to properly justify our bet/3-bet here.

      I plan to continue working on this problem but thought a thread would be good.

      Obviously betting the turn makes good sense given his low WTSD and we're never folding before the river so its call or 3-bet... but

      How do we decide that our 3-bet will be +EV?

      Question 8.

      BB = 26/17/2,6/34

      Preflop: You are SB with 6 :heart: , 7:heart: (6 players)
      4 folds, You raise, BB calls.

      Flop: (4 SB) 9:heart: , T:heart: , 4 :diamond: (2 players)
      You bet, BB calls.

      Turn: (3 BB) A :club: (2 players)
      You?

      Your open-raise with 76s from the small blind is standard. You flop a monster draw and a scare card hits on the turn. You still have a lot of outs bet no showdown value. What's the best option here?

      bet/call (1 Points)
      bet/fold (0 Points)
      bet/3-bet (2 Points)
      check/call (0 Points)
      check/raise (1 Points)


      Your answer bet/call (1 Points)

      The opponent hasn't really be aggressive before the flop, so it's easily possible that he's holding a weak ace which he defends passively. With this many outs, you should play bet/3-bet here. This allows you to build up fold equity for the river. You currently don't have any showdown value and it's possible that the opponent is drawing and will fold better hands like J8 or Q8 on the river in case he doesn't improve.

      The opponent's low WTSD also speaks for a bet/3-bet, bet river. You have about 26% on equity, so you only pay about an additional 0.5 BB more than for a bet/call on the turn. Less than 10% of fold equity would already be sufficient here, while you improve in one fourth of all cases on the river.

      Bet/call wouldn't be a big mistake, but you would lose the chance to win the pot unimproved on the river. Check/raise isn't the optimal choice for the same reason. The opponent will check behind on the turn too often and you wouldn't be left with sufficient fold equity on the river.


      regarding:

      "Less than 10% of fold equity would already be sufficient here, while you improve in one fourth of all cases on the river."

      If we expect him to raise/call a lot, and we're barreling the river UI.... 10% doesn't seem like enough fold equity given that the pot + villains bets = 6 and our investment to bluff vs his turn raise = 3BB*(1-.25). (where .25 = our equity)

      If he raise/folds just often enough vs our turn 3-bet we may not be taking a profitable line if he calls our river barrel to often.

      i am ignoring a few things... but 10% seems really low.
  • 2 replies
    • datsmahname
      datsmahname
      Global
      Joined: 23.11.2009 Posts: 1,366
      After some thinking I realized that I made one mistake. our cost to bluff is 2BB *(1-.25) given that we're never folding to his turn raise.

      In this case i cant decide if we're getting 6:1.5 (pot+villains bets / our 1.5 cost to bluff)

      or 7:1.5 (pot+villains bets AND our 1 bet which was the cost to just call).
    • datsmahname
      datsmahname
      Global
      Joined: 23.11.2009 Posts: 1,366
      fail thread.