I'm a fish: How do I calculate implied odds?

    • Shevtshenko
      Shevtshenko
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      Joined: 06.12.2009 Posts: 4,087
      I recently realized that it might actually be useful to know how to count those properly. :f_eek: I'm not looking for anyone to explain what implied odds are, instead I'd like to see a formula how those are counted when you're sitting at the table. So what do I want to learn is how do i count how much money i need to make on average in order to break even with my draw?

      If you've got an article, video etc. that teaches this, you can just link that as well.
  • 23 replies
    • brobz
      brobz
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      Joined: 22.03.2011 Posts: 569
      e.g.
      opponent has 5k I have 5k. The pot has 5k when the turn arrives. My Opponent bets $2,500, creatiing a $7500 pot, he has $2,500 remaining

      Implied odds= [$7500 in pot +$2500 I'm going to get if I make my hand) / $2500 I have to call+ $0 I am likely to have to call in the future)] to 1

      Math tells me I'm getting 4 to 1 implied odds, do i do it? Ill know after I figure out my BEP( break even percentage)

      BEP= 1/ (4+1)= 1/5= 20%

      if I have a 20% chance of catching a winning card on River, implied odds tell me I should play and call his bet.

      hope that helps ;)
    • datsmahname
      datsmahname
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      Joined: 23.11.2009 Posts: 1,366
      Mathematics of Poker: Implied Pot Odds
    • MJQuads
      MJQuads
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      Joined: 27.01.2008 Posts: 373
      It's the same as pot odds, but instead of including only pot size and opponents bet you also include his remaining stack.

      So for example:

      You have FD on turn, pot is 5$ (you and your opponent have 45$ left), and he bets 5$. This gives you the pot odds (I presume you know how to calculate this) of 1:2, which is 33%. And your equity on hitting your Flush is approximately 18% (2x 9 outs), which means there is no way you can call this bet only to be drawing for a flush. But if you are sure he will stack off if you hit your flush, then you also calculate his remaining stack into pot odds, and you get the implied pot odds. So basically, your implied pot odds are then (5$: 55$) 1:11, which is around 8% and with you having 18% equity, this a +EV call.

      But whenever you are considering implied pot odds, you have to be sure you will really get that much money if you hit what you are drawing for.

      Therefore for example, it might even be +EV, to call (for example) 77 preflop vs a 3bet, if opponent 3bet % is like 1% and you are 100% he only has AA. Because you know you'll 100% stack him off if you hit your set.

      But basically as brobz said.
    • Shevtshenko
      Shevtshenko
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      Joined: 06.12.2009 Posts: 4,087
      Originally posted by brobz
      e.g.
      opponent has 5k I have 5k. The pot has 5k when the turn arrives. My Opponent bets $2,500, creatiing a $7500 pot, he has $2,500 remaining

      Implied odds= [$7500 in pot +$2500 I'm going to get if I make my hand) / $2500 I have to call+ $0 I am likely to have to call in the future)] to 1

      Math tells me I'm getting 4 to 1 implied odds, do i do it? Ill know after I figure out my BEP( break even percentage)

      BEP= 1/ (4+1)= 1/5= 20%

      if I have a 20% chance of catching a winning card on River, implied odds tell me I should play and call his bet.

      hope that helps ;)

      Yea this is all true, but i can do this and it's not what i was looking for. Jkob also ty for sharing but that also wasn't rly the answer I was looking for. And the article doesn't cover this topic, even though it should.

      So mby i explained my thoughts unclearly. Retry:

      I want to learn how to calculate how much on average i need to win from villain in order to break even with my draw. You can't always just assume that you stack the villain when you hit, since let's face it ppl are not that bad anymore that they're stacking off with sets on 3 flush boards.

      So the formula I'm looking for is how to calculate the exact amount i need to make after hitting my draw.
    • MJQuads
      MJQuads
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      Joined: 27.01.2008 Posts: 373
      Yeah I get what you mean. In my example, you want to know how much more of his stack would you need to get on the river, so the call with a FD on the turn would be BE. For that, I don't know the formula, sorry.

      I know if I calculate for my example, he would need to invest further 17,5$ on the river, for you to get the implied pot odds of 18,1%, which would make you BE with your FD.
    • cpers
      cpers
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      Joined: 17.04.2011 Posts: 563
      I was wondering if this is what you're looking for?
      Using the above example:

      EV = 0 = Equity * (7500 + 2500) - 2500
      2500 = Equity * (10000)
      2500/10000 = Equity
      Equity when EV 0 = 0.25
    • pzhon
      pzhon
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      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Usually I don't do an explicit calculation at the table. However, sometimes I consider a few possible scenarios, and I estimate the likelihood of each scenario and how much each is worth. I estimate how much I get back from each scenario and compare the total with the cost of a call.

      If you have to call $20 to draw to a flush, you need to get back an average of $20 to make calling better than folding. If you hit the flush about 1/5 of the time, that could mean getting $100 when you hit the flush, and $0 otherwise. It could be that the stacks would make it obvious that you can't get $100 from the pot plus your opponent's stack if you hit the flush, and you should consider that you do not always get paid off, that your opponent might make a higher flush, but also that you might win if you pair and check it down. You may also find some profitable bluffing opportunities if you miss.
    • Shevtshenko
      Shevtshenko
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      Joined: 06.12.2009 Posts: 4,087
      Originally posted by cpers
      I was wondering if this is what you're looking for?
      Using the above example:

      EV = 0 = Equity * (7500 + 2500) - 2500
      2500 = Equity * (10000)
      2500/10000 = Equity
      Equity when EV 0 = 0.25
      close but no cigar. That's how to calculate the equity you need to break even with your call but it doesn't tell me how much i should be winning on average when i hit my hand.

      Originally posted by pzhon
      Usually I don't do an explicit calculation at the table. However, sometimes I consider a few possible scenarios, and I estimate the likelihood of each scenario and how much each is worth. I estimate how much I get back from each scenario and compare the total with the cost of a call.

      If you have to call $20 to draw to a flush, you need to get back an average of $20 to make calling better than folding. If you hit the flush about 1/5 of the time, that could mean getting $100 when you hit the flush, and $0 otherwise. It could be that the stacks would make it obvious that you can't get $100 from the pot plus your opponent's stack if you hit the flush, and you should consider that you do not always get paid off, that your opponent might make a higher flush, but also that you might win if you pair and check it down. You may also find some profitable bluffing opportunities if you miss.
      yea, that's true and obv you need to know this stuff just to beat the micros. Still not what i'm looking for here. I don't think the calculations can be too tough to learn to do while playing. And it's about small edges in poker, so it can't possibly hurt to know the exact number of bb's you need to be capable of making from villain when you're actually playing the hand.

      edit. and for the bolded part, I've never done those calcs at tables, estimations are obv. good and mostly enough but having exact data is better than having decent data.
    • pyure
      pyure
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      Joined: 25.09.2008 Posts: 258
      I saw this little excel chart in a video once. Don't have it to hand, or have excel installed on my computer, but I'll explain it and you can make it up yourself.

      Total Pot Size on Turn: <Enter Value>
      Amount to Call: <Enter Value>

      Pot Odds (:1): *total pot size/amount to call*

      Outs: <Enter Value>

      Odds to Make Hand (:1): *you'll need to make up a table of odds and outs and link it to here, so if you put 12 outs it can automatically put 2.67 here.

      Implied Odds (:1): *odds to make hand - pot odds*

      Amount Needed on River: *amount to call * implied odds*

      Hope that's what you were looking for and I haven't made a mistake anywhere :)
    • Shevtshenko
      Shevtshenko
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      Joined: 06.12.2009 Posts: 4,087
      Originally posted by pyure
      I saw this little excel chart in a video once. Don't have it to hand, or have excel installed on my computer, but I'll explain it and you can make it up yourself.

      Total Pot Size on Turn: <Enter Value>
      Amount to Call: <Enter Value>

      Pot Odds (:1): *total pot size/amount to call*

      Outs: <Enter Value>

      Odds to Make Hand (:1): *you'll need to make up a table of odds and outs and link it to here, so if you put 12 outs it can automatically put 2.67 here.

      Implied Odds (:1): *odds to make hand - pot odds*

      Amount Needed on River: *amount to call * implied odds*

      Hope that's what you were looking for and I haven't made a mistake anywhere :)
      that looks good. Hmm, so it's simpler than i thought if all you said above is correct, only thing to calculate is the bold part. Since you can basically see/learn by heart all the other info needed.
    • Shevtshenko
      Shevtshenko
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      Joined: 06.12.2009 Posts: 4,087
      @pyure

      is there an easy way to count this in percentages? I'm confident that what you posted is correct but for me it would be more logical to do it in %. It shouldn't be that tough but i'm a math fish so... :f_confused:
    • pyure
      pyure
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      Joined: 25.09.2008 Posts: 258
      Is the bolded part the only important bit...yes, that sounds about right, if you can work out your implied odds in your head then fine.

      I don't understand what you mean about percentages ? Can you elaborate alittle please ?
    • Shevtshenko
      Shevtshenko
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      Joined: 06.12.2009 Posts: 4,087
      Originally posted by pyure
      Is the bolded part the only important bit...yes, that sounds about right, if you can work out your implied odds in your head then fine.

      I don't understand what you mean about percentages ? Can you elaborate alittle please ?
      I mean i'm not used to calculate stuff in odds format like 4:1 or 2:1, i understand those but haven't rly ever used. If i need to do equity calcs or whatever probability calcs i'm always using percentages like 20% or ,33 etc.

      And i didn't figure out how to make this

      Implied Odds (:1): *odds to make hand - pot odds*

      work in percentages.



      and yea, big thanks for posting the formulas!
    • pyure
      pyure
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      Joined: 25.09.2008 Posts: 258
      oh yeah, getcha now.
      Pretty simple really, if your implied odds are 0.68:1 then it's just 68%
    • pzhon
      pzhon
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      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Originally posted by Shevtshenko
      I don't think the calculations can be too tough to learn to do while playing. And it's about small edges in poker, so it can't possibly hurt to know the exact number of bb's you need to be capable of making from villain when you're actually playing the hand.
      I think you are missing the main point I was making. If you like mental arithmetic it would not be too hard to do an exact calculation at the table. However, if you do an exact calculation, you are calculating the wrong thing. You need to consider how valuable your hand is when you don't make the flush, but your opponent seems to have given up, or you pair. You need to consider how often you will get paid off and how often your opponent will have better after you hit instead of assuming that making your hand means you get your opponent's stack 100% of the time. There is no calculation which tells you the values of these scenarios. The errors you make by estimating things are far smaller than the errors you will make if you pretend this is a simple calculation.

      Very often, people are misled by optimistic simplified calculations and grossly overestimate their implied odds while forgetting to bluff appropriately when the draw misses. I recommend going through a messy example with realistic ranges for your opponent to see how valuable it is to play a draw in practice.
    • Shevtshenko
      Shevtshenko
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      Joined: 06.12.2009 Posts: 4,087
      Originally posted by pzhon
      Originally posted by Shevtshenko
      I don't think the calculations can be too tough to learn to do while playing. And it's about small edges in poker, so it can't possibly hurt to know the exact number of bb's you need to be capable of making from villain when you're actually playing the hand.
      I think you are missing the main point I was making. If you like mental arithmetic it would not be too hard to do an exact calculation at the table. However, if you do an exact calculation, you are calculating the wrong thing. You need to consider how valuable your hand is when you don't make the flush, but your opponent seems to have given up, or you pair. You need to consider how often you will get paid off and how often your opponent will have better after you hit instead of assuming that making your hand means you get your opponent's stack 100% of the time. There is no calculation which tells you the values of these scenarios. The errors you make by estimating things are far smaller than the errors you will make if you pretend this is a simple calculation.

      Very often, people are misled by optimistic simplified calculations and grossly overestimate their implied odds while forgetting to bluff appropriately when the draw misses. I recommend going through a messy example with realistic ranges for your opponent to see how valuable it is to play a draw in practice.

      Sure. Agreed. I don't think i missed the point you were making. For me it doesn't mean that if i calculate the exact number that i can't possibly think about anything else during the hand. That would obviously be just stupid and in that case the actual calculation wouldn't make a difference. But after you realize that context is what really matters, i can't find any harm in being able to calculate the exact number. It's not like calculating it would take that long if you're willing to practice how to do it.
    • cpers
      cpers
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      Joined: 17.04.2011 Posts: 563
      after trying to understand what pyure's formula is.
      i think i just stumbled to a faster formula.

      total pot: 5
      call amount: 2
      odds: 7:1
      pot odds: 2.5:1

      pyure's formula:

      call amount * ( odds - pot odds ) = 9
      2 * ( 7 - 2.5 ) = 9

      faster formula:

      ( call amount * odds ) - total pot = 9
      ( 2 * 7 ) - 5 = 9

      Well it probably doesn't matter since it only omits pot odds calculation.
      But less odds less percentage to ratio conversion, right.
    • daun666
      daun666
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      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 540
      Hi
      I am thinking something like this - I have FD, if pot on flop is 10 $ and opponent bets 10 $
      so I have 2:1 to call but I have to have 4:1 to call. It means pot should be 40 $ but it is only 20$ so if I think I can make atleast 20 $ on turn I call.
      Another example - I have OESD and pot on flop is 10$ he bets 5$, I have 3:1 to call but have to have 5:1 so pot should be 25$ so if I think I can make atleast 10$ on turn I call.
      Hope it was helpful :)
    • acceleration123
      acceleration123
      Gold
      Joined: 11.12.2010 Posts: 5,311
      Originally posted by daun666
      Hi
      I am thinking something like this - I have FD, if pot on flop is 10 $ and opponent bets 10 $
      so I have 2:1 to call but I have to have 4:1 to call. It means pot should be 40 $ but it is only 20$ so if I think I can make atleast 20 $ on turn I call.
      Another example - I have OESD and pot on flop is 10$ he bets 5$, I have 3:1 to call but have to have 5:1 so pot should be 25$ so if I think I can make atleast 10$ on turn I call.
      Hope it was helpful :)
      This. Was about to write something similar.
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