[NL2-NL10] NL4 SH QQ overpair vs raise on paired board.

    • dallievas
      Joined: 30.11.2007 Posts: 822
      Simple hand but seems need a bit help :)
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.02/$0.04 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      SB (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q.
      MP3 folds, CO raises to $0.10, BU calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.45, BB folds, CO calls $0.35, BU folds.

      Flop: ($1.04) 8, 7, 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.55, CO raises to $1.48, Hero folds, CO gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $1.59.

      Opp 30/25/ AF 6 , his fold to 3bet 0(out of 8 times),4bet range 6(out of 8times),raise flop 22% (9), fold to cb 56% ,aggr fq on flop 67%,on turn 38%, total 400 hands,that day he played 12 tables.This raising size is usual for him.
      At that time I had gut feeling that I'm beat (slowplayed AA,KK or trips) and didn't want to just call and fold on turn to aggro,so was 2 options left push or fold.
      His range can be overpairs,full house or Q,trips,semibluffs oesd,few bluffs like oc eg AK.
      Board: 8c 7d 8h

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 54.963% 54.23% 00.74% 36506 495.00 { AcAd, AcAh, AcAs, AdAh, AdAs, KcKd, KcKh, KcKs, KdKh, KdKs, QdQs, JJ-99, 8d8s, 7c7h, 7c7s, 7h7s, AKs, A8s, K8s, Q8s, J8s, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 65s, AdKh, AdKs, A8o, Th9d, Ts9d }
      Hand 1: 45.037% 44.30% 00.74% 29824 495.00 { QcQh }

      If I push then EV for me is +2.1$ (55bb),if he folds about 10% my EV also about 2.1$.So looks like have to push,??
      What about call on flop,and he is aggressive ,then I can do too much bad fold? What if opp is usual tag with more narrow range?
      Some uncertainty for me in this hand.
  • 4 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      against 30/25 just don´t overthink
      You have overpair in 3-bet pot, he is aggressive enough that he can shove with draws or any hand that has showdown value and if he is calling with 8x, then he should also call with 7x, 99, TT, 9T that he might also get all-in on the flop
      So you´re generally ahead on his flop shoving range which makes b/c quite mandatory play against that opponent
    • dallievas
      Joined: 30.11.2007 Posts: 822
      Thanks a lot :)
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello dallievas,

      He may do that easily with bluff in his range as well. So there should be added a lot bluff hands into his range as well and against which we would get a very good equity. I am Calling this on flop and reevaluating it on further streets.

      Best regards.
    • dallievas
      Joined: 30.11.2007 Posts: 822
      thanks for help.
      I was thinking that call is worst option because he's aggressive and often will bet on every scary card,so if A,K hits I wouldn't know what to do and if I check turn he easily can check behind and play close to perfection on a river ( I like raise sometime with equity to see 2 cards in position).
      Another thing that worry me if opp suppose normal tag, how often he raise 99,TT here,I think more often for them are better to just call and play as SD value hand.Then more slowplayed AA,KK left.
      Anyway agree with both of u,I shouldn't fold against this particular opp.