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NL 0.05/0.10 VS. 0.10/0.25 Full Tilt Poker MSS

    • Saka000
      Joined: 21.07.2010 Posts: 136
      Hi there by Saka000...
      I just wanted to post this thread on battle NL10 vs NL25 becouse i had though experience on NL25.
      Anyway i started with 300$ and decided to play MSS strategy,after 30000 hands nothing happened but after realising couple bonuses i got to 500$.After that i decided to move up to NL25 cause i had 50 buy-ins for NL25.
      AFTER ONLY ABOUT 1000 HANDS I LOST OVER 120$,things are going really bad (AAvs.KK,a few times lost AK vs A10 and stuff like that).I did not know what is happening and quickly come back to NL10.
      All opinions are welcome and i just want to know your experiences on these limits,are thay that though or what?
  • 6 replies
    • eXtremeACE
      Joined: 22.02.2011 Posts: 267
      Hi there Saka000,

      First of, I am not that experienced player, but I do read a lot and ask a lot, so all of this is coming from that.

      After 30k hands you should know if you're winning or losing player. They say 20k is enough for you to know that, but over 100k to know your winrate. So if i were you I would ask my self - was I crushing NL10 or did I had leaks and were just lucky to break even..

      After that, if you're sure that you're playing your A+ game, then the thing that just happened over at NL25 shouldn't really concern you. As long as your play is EV+ in a longer run (more than 1k hands) you should break on top. All the things that you have mentioned (lost AAvsKK, and AKvsA10) you did a good play there, the other player just got lucky and in the long run you'll win money off them.

      So to recap, if I were you I'd make sure that I'm actually winning (leave bonuses asides) and then if I'm sure I am, I'll just put my fate in mathematics, probability and EV play and just keep on grinding! :s_cool:
    • zilltine
      Joined: 20.03.2010 Posts: 395
      Originally posted by eXtremeACE
      Hi there Saka000,

      First of, I am not that experienced player, but I do read a lot and ask a lot, so all of this is coming from that.

      After 30k hands you should know if you're winning or losing player. They say 20k is enough for you to know that, but over 100k to know your winrate.
      [ ] After 20k hands u know if u`re winning player
      [ ] After 100k hands u know u`r winrate
    • Saka000
      Joined: 21.07.2010 Posts: 136
      I win a lot on showdown winnings but i have problem with my non showdown winnings.Any idea of improving non showdown winnings ?
    • Zheelvern
      Joined: 29.10.2007 Posts: 705
      Originally posted by zilltine
      [ ] After 100k hands u know u`r winrate
      I agree with this. Never ever you ARE NOT any kind of winrate. You're only human. Not winrate...
    • racenutalways
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 179
      I've played 1 million hands at the NL5 and kept a winrate of just 1.5bbs/100.

      I've played NL25,50,100 for another 700k hands, my winrate remained near even.

      I've played about 1 million hands at the NL10, I tell you with certainty that the math doesn't make sense in some situations. Flopped set, being top, middle or bottom is losing to overpair more then the 9%ish that poker stove reports.
      96 such situations, lost 25 of them. I expect to lose, but not 26%. That equals to 16 buy-ins lost that shouldn't have been lost.

      Set vs draws I lose 53% out of 90 such battles. Another 15 buy-ins lost.

      SetvsSet 65 instances, I flopped smaller set 43 times. Amazing seeing that I don't play pairs smaller then 88(position dependant).

      I've been tracking how overpairs fair vs smaller pairs or Ax type hands..
      This is how aces have been performing in the last million hands....

      AAvsKK 158 lost 30 (23%)
      vsQQ 59 lost 7 (18.5%)
      vsJJ 29 lost2 (19%)
      vsTT 30 lost 8 (36.7%)
      vs99 6 lost 1 (20%)
      vs88 8 lost 3 (38%)
      vs77 7 lost 2 (30%)
      vs66 6 lost 2 (33%)
      vs55 2 lost 1
      vs 44 8 lost 4
      vs33 2 lost 1

      Vs Ax (A2 sooted or not through AK, 88 lost 6 (0.07%)

      How does AA fair vs random pair??? 265 lost 61 (23%). Pokerstove reports a loss of 19.3% normal variance. Not off by much but its 10 buy-ins down the crapper.

      Let's see how KK has been fairing:
      vsAA 58 won 9 for a suckout of 15.5%, pokerstove reports 18% equity
      90 instances vs pair other then AA or KK lost 14 (15.5%)

      Vs Ax hands 96 lost 19 (22%) pokerstove reports 29.7% , should have lost at least 28 showdowns....

      OESD+Flush draw 50 chances, hit 16 32% hit rate here....
      inside straight+flush draw 39 chances, hit 11, 28%.

      Hope some of you keep paper trail of how your hands hold up or don't and you can share your success or non-success with us...............

      I've started to place my hands in category of EV, whether i was drawing thin dead or a monster draw.....
      When you flop a set and your vs top pair+ inside str8 draw sort of thing,

      -10%EV how many times I need amiracle and miss or hit, compare it to how many times I was against such situation and won or lost. And of course can only do that with hands that went to showdown.

      AK hits the flop 401 times in the last 1067 flops seen 37%, right on the money. 118 times I hit an A or K on the turn, and 70 times hit the river.

      STOP complaining and put some concrete data on here to back up claims. Otherwise you sound just like a crying rookie and every online player think they are better and will post the dumbest of comments....

      Keep track on how often you flop a set or draw, write the hands you're up against and write the outcomes. You'll see where your buy-ins are vanishing.'

      Went through the hands I have played at the NL10 since december and looked at certain situations and found that when I'm up vs some draw and have +91% equity, I lost 41%. 54 lost 22.
      11-19% equity, I lost 26.5%, 117 lost 31.
      How is it that out of 161 instances that I am 80% fave or better I lose this often? (32.9%). Still have thousands of hands to go through.
    • racenutalways
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 179
      Saka, these are the main reasons our nonSD sucks,

      1)Continuation betting too often or in bad spots.Having a one-and-done approach to c-betting.
      Cbetting into calling stations is -EV
      Cbetting vs 1 opponent is +EV, vs 2 opp, break even.
      Cbetting vs 1 opp with no or high card on flop +EV, 2 high cards, break even.
      Make sure your bet size is big enough to induce a fold:
      1/2 pot needs to win just in 1 out of every 3 to break even(BEP, break even point).
      2/3 pot bet has 40% BEP
      pot bet has 50% BEP
      Don't Cbet in multi way pots either or draw heavy flops or flops that don't help your range or hands that have showdown value.

      2)Playing the out-of-position guessing game too often. Don't call raises, raise them or fold, playing OOP is just bad poker. Raise the cbets rather then fold.
      You may get raised but at least your not giving up with out a fight.

      3)Calling too often with draws and playing them passively. Todays players online are so privvy on flush hunters that this play has -EV in my opinion.

      4)Calling raises with weak made hands only to fold to further action.
      Floating 44 on the flop hoping he gives up, sound familiar? Online, not many won't double barrel......know his stats well b4 getting involved with him.. These guys often triple barrel but fold to a raise often on the river. How you know he has a hand? You don't, but you should be playing your made hands the same way. When I find myself OOP vs these types I check raise the flop 8% of the time. Optimal stats say that 8.1-10.4% or 4.7%-6.3%.... based on winning players...

      5)Calling too many three-bets and folding too many flops.
      Optimal says you should call 3 bets 23.7%.

      6)Check-calling weak hands that are essentially two-pair draws.
      Most do this when they are in the blinds

      7)Playing passively in three-bet pots as the aggressor.
      Grow some balls and tell your opponent you are willing to play for stacks

      Hope this helps