[NL2-NL10] TPTK vs Turn Overbet Shove

    • fryandspicy
      Joined: 27.05.2010 Posts: 440
      Villian is 88/15/3.5AF but his flop check raise stat (which I checked) is 66% over a sample of 3 hands. 26 hands overall on him. My thinking is that 1) He seems like a bluffy maniac if he has that high an aggression factor even though he limps preflop so much, and 2)what would check raise such a dry flop? Turn is a bit of a scary card I guess but I decided to make a stand with a reasonable hand. Bad decision?

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      BU (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BU with J, A.
      MP3 calls $0.10, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.30.

      Flop: ($0.95) 2, 8, J (2 players)
      MP3 checks, Hero bets $0.50, MP3 raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.00.

      Turn: ($3.95) T (2 players)
      MP3 bets $6.66(All-In), Hero calls $6.66.

      River: ($17.27) 9 (2 players)

      Final Pot: $17.27.
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello fryandspicy,

      The problem on turn is that there he wont anymore have a pure bluffs there. He will likely go for a hand with some combodraw like TP+OESD or whatsoever. And of course has strong holdings as well in his range. Therefore it's pretty close, really depends on the opponent, against aggressive maniac I might even consider Calling but more often it's really depending how you saw him on table on those previous hands you saw him. If unknown then I'd even prefer folding on turn or maybe even at some spots on flop.

      Best regards.