going broke on sngs with the pokerstrategy.com strategy and BRM?

    • sDeshe
      sDeshe
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      Joined: 10.06.2011 Posts: 4
      I passed the quiz on SNGs and did the ICM trainer light as well as another 100 ICM trainer practice hands. I play with the PS strategy and BRM (1+20$) and I have the charts open at all time, and after 1 day and 10 tournaments I'm 4$ down.

      I know 1 day and 10 tournaments is a very small sample and 4$ is still far away from going broke, but I did read about variance somewhere here and it did sound like it can kill your bankroll in SNGs. What is the risk of that? do I really need to suck to lose all my BR on 1$ SNGs? the problem with this is that there's nowhere to go down to if you lose too much.
  • 14 replies
    • supergaijin
      supergaijin
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      Joined: 03.09.2010 Posts: 133
      10 SnG isn't a small sample size it is a non existent sample size. If you are following PS strategy for STT's you would have to run unbelievably badly to go broke on the $1's and is statistically unlikely.

      $1 are extremely beatable and you should be in the black in no time.
    • sDeshe
      sDeshe
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      Joined: 10.06.2011 Posts: 4
      well 10 tournaments is a non-existant sample size only when you have the money to play a lot. when you play at a rate that will bust you after 150 tournaments 10 tournaments isn't that miniscule of a sampale size.

      edit:
      I just got the trial version of HEM, and I want to ask what is the Luck Adjusted Winnings? it's about 0.8BI bigger loss then my actual loss.
    • NoOneSpcl
      NoOneSpcl
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      Joined: 03.04.2011 Posts: 118
      I'm afraid to say that 10 SNGs is a non existent sample size, whatever your bankroll is. There's no way around that.


      Now, to make sure the numbers are clearer, a good player with 10% ROI in the long run in SNGs (more than possible in the lowest buy-ins, in fact if you're doing it well, I won't be surprised if your ROI will be higher at this limit...) will actually have a 4% chance of breaking even or finish worse even after 1000 SNGs. (but lower than 0.3% or 0.4% (not 100% sure which :) ) after 3000 SNGs.



      Since you're reacting to your results quite fast, a word of warning.
      You cannot, and I can't stress this enough, c a n n o t learn poker with just results based thinking. Not with short term results, that is. You can do everything right and have bad results for a short period of time, and you can do everything wrong and be doing well. However, since it is guaranteed that your chances are better if you do things better, and that correct decisions will determine your long term success.


      Even if you think that your bankroll is too small to think long term, or that you may switch to ways which are better "in the short term", these are guaranteed to have a lower % of success. There is simply no way around that.

      Poker requires nerves of steel.

      If the best SNG player in the world would play these 1$ buy in SNGs now and would be down after 10 or 20 tournaments, it won't be anything too spectacular.
    • NoOneSpcl
      NoOneSpcl
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      Joined: 03.04.2011 Posts: 118
      As to ICM - 100 hands? while the 1$ SNGs can be beat with only going over the light trainer, of course you can become MUCH better (and thus have fewer chances of losing)...

      100 hands are nothing for a serious ICM training...Actually even as a non serious one... considering the decisions are affected by positions,players remaining, players already in, cards and all the different stack sizes, a 100 hands don't even cover a fraction of different important to understand situations...

      Play 100 hand sequences (pick your preferred site on the top right, and make all other data random (blind level, stack size etc.), and you should be aiming to reach higher than 90% correct consistently (even 93+%) after a few sequences.

      Save and go over the ones you did wrong in the trainer's calculator... just doing a 100 hands is hardly called training.





      Finally, a word of caution about these micro stakes SNGs - the ICM push or fold trainer assumes your opponent plays well... As you may have noticed, the motto for the push or fold phase in an SNG is push loose, call tight.

      Now, If you notice players who call way too often (and there will be many of those in these limits), remove the bottom part of your push range against them, as it's only profitable when compared to the opponent's optimal calling range, as these hands have high fold equity against a tight range, which is what makes them profitable in the long run.

      Against an opponent who calls too often... well, there's a lot less fold equity and many of his incorrect calls will hurt you and him along the way (to the delight of the other participants in the tourney, who get free EV without having to make a single decision...).
    • NoOneSpcl
      NoOneSpcl
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      Joined: 03.04.2011 Posts: 118
      As to the luck adjusted winnings, it uses all in EV calculations to determine how well you should have done in these tourneys you played after you reached the push or fold phase, or to be more precise, how you would have done if you had played the same situation many times the same way.

      (for example, you might have won a KK all-in hand against AA, but the EV you should have is only 20% of the pot (the effective stack in a heads up EV situation).

      It uses the results to determine what would have been your winnings.

      So if it's worse than the normal results, that means you've actually had some good luck during these 10 tournaments and would have ended a bit worse than you did.

      But again, 10 tournaments... it's way too small to say anything. any statistical analysis or logical conclusions from it .....cannot really be performed or deduced, though it would still be advisable to go over many of the hands you play using Holdem manager's different reports/filters and see if you find hands/situations where you made a wrong decision.


      Good luck! (sorry for the long posts)
    • Waiboy
      Waiboy
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      Joined: 18.09.2008 Posts: 4,877
      Great replies folks!

      @sDeshe: herein lies wisdom. :s_cool:
    • sDeshe
      sDeshe
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      Joined: 10.06.2011 Posts: 4
      Originally posted by NoOneSpcl
      So if it's worse than the normal results, that means you've actually had some good luck during these 10 tournaments and would have ended a bit worse than you did.
      (sorry for the long posts)
      would have ended a little bit worse because of the way I played the hands? or because of the cards I got?
    • YuvalW
      YuvalW
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.05.2011 Posts: 30
      Originally posted by NoOneSpcl
      So if it's worse than the normal results, that means you've actually had some good luck
      wait, so if in NL2 I am +6$ while the EV is -5$, does that mean I have a lot of luck for now?
    • NoOneSpcl
      NoOneSpcl
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      Joined: 03.04.2011 Posts: 118
      Originally posted by YuvalW
      Originally posted by NoOneSpcl
      So if it's worse than the normal results, that means you've actually had some good luck
      wait, so if in NL2 I am +6$ while the EV is -5$, does that mean I have a lot of luck for now?

      YES, in general. But don't become the software's EV slave, since usually it only counts EV rates for times when the money goes in before the river.


      So it means that you were lucky with many of your all in results :)
    • NoOneSpcl
      NoOneSpcl
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      Joined: 03.04.2011 Posts: 118
      Originally posted by sDeshe
      Originally posted by NoOneSpcl
      So if it's worse than the normal results, that means you've actually had some good luck during these 10 tournaments and would have ended a bit worse than you did.
      (sorry for the long posts)
      would have ended a little bit worse because of the way I played the hands? or because of the cards I got?
      Because of the cards vs. cards all-in matchups you were in.


      More precisely, you were luckier than you should have been. That is, if you had 20% equity in some cases where you were all in, you won a bit more than 20% of these... so it doesn't tell you if you played well or not, just that your actual results are better than they should have been...


      To know if you played well or not, you'll have to analyze your hands with a tracking software, post some hands in the forums here, etc.
    • YuvalW
      YuvalW
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      Joined: 28.05.2011 Posts: 30
      Originally posted by NoOneSpcl
      Originally posted by YuvalW
      Originally posted by NoOneSpcl
      So if it's worse than the normal results, that means you've actually had some good luck
      wait, so if in NL2 I am +6$ while the EV is -5$, does that mean I have a lot of luck for now?

      YES, in general. But don't become the software's EV slave, since usually it only counts EV rates for times when the money goes in before the river.


      So it means that you were lucky with many of your all in results :)
      if I go all in post flop, does it count the post flop equity or pre flop? e.g. if I won with 77 against AA after I saw a 7 on the flop, does my EV go up or down?
    • TiciBoy
      TiciBoy
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      Joined: 13.01.2010 Posts: 1,235
      Originally posted by YuvalW
      Originally posted by NoOneSpcl
      Originally posted by YuvalW
      Originally posted by NoOneSpcl
      So if it's worse than the normal results, that means you've actually had some good luck
      wait, so if in NL2 I am +6$ while the EV is -5$, does that mean I have a lot of luck for now?

      YES, in general. But don't become the software's EV slave, since usually it only counts EV rates for times when the money goes in before the river.


      So it means that you were lucky with many of your all in results :)
      if I go all in post flop, does it count the post flop equity or pre flop? e.g. if I won with 77 against AA after I saw a 7 on the flop, does my EV go up or down?
      It goes up. But not quite as much as your winnings (since you are not 100% to win at that point).
    • Salivanth
      Salivanth
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      Joined: 01.01.2011 Posts: 587
      It counts the equity when the money goes in. So if you went all-in on the flop with your third 7, it would count that in the EV calculation. If you went all-in preflop, it wouldn't. This is also why, if you go all-in on the river, EV and actual winnings are the same, since unless it's a tie, you or your opponent has a 100% chance to win the hand at that point.
    • NoOneSpcl
      NoOneSpcl
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.04.2011 Posts: 118
      Originally posted by YuvalW
      Originally posted by NoOneSpcl
      Originally posted by YuvalW
      Originally posted by NoOneSpcl
      So if it's worse than the normal results, that means you've actually had some good luck
      wait, so if in NL2 I am +6$ while the EV is -5$, does that mean I have a lot of luck for now?

      YES, in general. But don't become the software's EV slave, since usually it only counts EV rates for times when the money goes in before the river.


      So it means that you were lucky with many of your all in results :)
      if I go all in post flop, does it count the post flop equity or pre flop? e.g. if I won with 77 against AA after I saw a 7 on the flop, does my EV go up or down?


      Of course it calculates the odds at the point where the all in took place. That is, when the money went to the middle... If the all in takes place preflop, you have less than 20% with the 77 against the AA and that is your equity (your share of the pot), if the money went to the middle when you flopped a set and your opponent had AA, your equity will be much higher (your exact equity at that point. Taking into account your opponent's potential outs and yours... Equilab will help a lot in figuring lots of these scenarios).

      The only exception is river all ins, which don't count at all for these EV calculations (there IS no "share of the pot" in the river... either one hand is a 100% winner and the other/s are 0%, or the pot is split...)