[NL2-NL10] flush

    • JHTAN
      JHTAN
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.07.2010 Posts: 1,331
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($14)
      Hero ($20)
      UTG ($56.85)
      UTG+1 ($20.80)
      UTG+2 ($45.35)
      MP1 ($51.60)
      MP2 ($46.55)
      CO ($54.30)
      BTN ($50)

      Dealt to Hero K:spade: 4:spade:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.50, fold, Hero checks

      FLOP ($1.75) 8:club: 6:spade: 8:spade:

      Hero bets $1, UTG+1 raises to $2, BTN folds, Hero calls $1

      TURN ($5.75) 8:club: 6:spade: 8:spade: Q:spade:

      Hero checks, UTG+1 checks

      RIVER ($5.75) 8:club: 6:spade: 8:spade: Q:spade: 3:club:

      Hero bets $2, UTG+1 raises to $4, Hero calls $2

      Results follow:

      Hero shows Ks 4s
      (Pre 37%, Flop 19.6%, Turn 0.0%)

      UTG+1 shows 3s As
      (Pre 63%, Flop 80.4%, Turn 100.0%)

      UTG+1 wins $13.10


      UTG's stats,


      Uploaded with ImageShack.us

      Hello,

      Should I bet the Turn?
      I bet small on River because I think he range is weak as he checks behind Turn. He minraise on River looks very strong. So, I just call it.

      thanks.
  • 7 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hi,


      You are too vague with your explanations, you should be more specific. Strong can be defined differently like 2pair+ or only fullhouses. It is up to our own imagination what we can define as strong

      Anyway the only full houses he can have is 86s,66 which is 5 combo's at best so I think against this player we are better off 3betting the River against a 50% VPIP opponent (only info we have); you can either shove or raise to $10

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • JHTAN
      JHTAN
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.07.2010 Posts: 1,331
      Hi,

      I think he only raises with Flush or Fullhouse.

      Board: 8:club: 6:spade: 8:spade:  Q:spade:  3:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      BU     73.68%  73.68%   0.00% { 66, 33, 86s, AsTs, JsTs, As9s, Js9s, Ts9s, As8s, Js8s, Ts8s, 9s8s, As7s, 9s7s, 8s7s, As6s, 7s6s, As5s, 7s5s, 6s5s, As4s, 6s4s, As3s, As2s } 19 combo's with card removal
      SB     26.32%  26.32%   0.00% { Ks4s }


      On the River, the pot odds to call his raise is about 15%. So, I call.
      I don't think shove on River is good because we only have 26% equity on the River.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Why do you put 33 in there? Do you ever think he comes to the River with 33?

      Also wouldn't he valuebet a flush on the Turn (nutflush then)

      The range you give him is abit off since you didn't included certain hands I would and you have included ridiculous hands I have excluded from the get-go
    • JHTAN
      JHTAN
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.07.2010 Posts: 1,331
      Hi Gerv,

      I think he is a fish because he limps from UTG.
      Flop is paired and he may be doesn't believe me that I have something on the Flop. So, he may raise with Pocket 3s to protect his hand because he is fish and fish like to do something that you can't predict. May be I am wrong.
      Besides that, I think he may be raise on the Flop with flush draw or any PPs.
      If he is bluffing on the Flop then he will continue bluffing on the Turn and he checks behind on Turn mean that he has showdown value want to pot control or he giving up. I think fish like to slowplay. So, he may checks behind with Flush. On the River, I think he is never bluffing so I put him on:


      Board: 8:club: 6:spade: 8:spade:  Q:spade:  3:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      SB     64.29%  64.29%   0.00% { 66, AsTs, JsTs, As9s, Js9s, Ts9s, As8s, Ts8s, 9s8s, As7s, 9s7s, 8s7s, As6s, 8s6s, 7s6s, As5s, 7s5s, 6s5s, As4s, 6s4s, As3s, As2s }
      BB     35.71%  35.71%   0.00% { Ks4s }



      I think he will continue betting on Turn with 8x and yes the chance that he has pocket 3s is small. So, I exclude 8x and 33 in his range.
      If we take out the pocket 6s (I think he will not raise on Flop with fullhouse or as played he will continue betting on Turn with Fullhouse) then it is a +EV shove on the River because I think he is calling with any Flush and we need about 42% equity to shove.


      Board: 8:club: 6:spade: 8:spade:  Q:spade:  3:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      SB     54.55%  54.55%   0.00% { AsTs, JsTs, As9s, Js9s, Ts9s, As8s, Ts8s, 9s8s, As7s, 9s7s, 8s7s, As6s, 8s6s, 7s6s, As5s, 7s5s, 6s5s, As4s, 6s4s, As3s, As2s }
      BB     45.45%  45.45%   0.00% { Ks4s }
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      If he has iniative, it doesn't make sense to slowplay nutflush so I exclude that from his range.

      He can check back 8x & Qx on the Turn to go to showdown and then randomly decides to minraise you on the River

      so I still want to bet/3bet my flush on the River

      - Gerv
    • JHTAN
      JHTAN
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.07.2010 Posts: 1,331
      do you think he has worse Flush in his range on the River?
      if not , then what hand do you suppose him to call my shove on the River? 8x or Qx?
      I doubt he will call with 8x or Qx. He maybe call because he is fish. :s_biggrin:
      I think he will call with worse Flush which make shoving is good.
      I think he will raise bigger on this wet Flop with made hand for protection. He minraise on the Flop shows that he maybe has flushdraw on the Flop. I think it is common line to check behind Turn then raise on the River with strong hand. Because most people will call Flop and Turn but fold River.
      By check behind on the Turn, you can disguise you hand strength and get more value if opponent think they can bluff or value bet on River and they will call you raise lighter because you line looks bluffly. I learnt this line from pokerstrategy that is mbml's BSS videos. Maybe the fish watched the videos. :D

      Besides, do you think Hero donkbet Turn with Flush is good?

      thanks.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by JHTAN
      I think he will raise bigger on this wet Flop with made hand for protection.

      He minraise on the Flop shows that he maybe has flushdraw on the Flop.

      I think it is common line to check behind Turn then raise on the River with strong hand. Because most people will call Flop and Turn but fold River.

      By check behind on the Turn, you can disguise you hand strength and get more value if opponent think they can bluff or value bet on River and they will call you raise lighter because you line looks bluffly. I learnt this line from pokerstrategy that is mbml's BSS videos. Maybe the fish watched the videos. :D
      Come on, really? You are overanalyzing this hand or you are just kidding with me while this is not the place to be kidding as I help you out how to play a hand :f_confused:

      If you dont see the shove as fat-value, see it as thinvalue vs a fish




      Besides, do you think Hero donkbet Turn with Flush is good?
      Yes just valuebet and shove River