The "good beat" project

    • outspan
      outspan
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      Joined: 07.02.2010 Posts: 1,196
      Yesterday I was thinking about the advantages of sharing a bankroll among different players, provided that certain conditions are met. And from there, I came up with this idea. It's still unrefined and still sounds very whacky at the moment, but I think it has potential.

      We all know that bad beats put players on tilt - or to the very least, make us feel like crap. But what if there was a way to average out the months in which we're below and above EV? We'd stop caring so much about the results and concentrate a lot more on making the right decisions - which, eventually, WILL bring better results.

      So, here's the idea: let's form a pool of players, whether cash, mtt or sng, and regardless of the stakes the play. The players will agree to deposit a certain percentage of the difference between winnings and EV line if they're above EV, and have the right to withdraw the same percentage of the difference if they're below EV, according to their HEM graphs for the month.

      The fund would be managed by a trusted third party, and the percentage could be just 5% to start with, but I'd love it if it could eventually reach 25% or 50%. It could be good to ask for an initial deposit as soon as a new player enters the pool, to avoid him leaving the project when he has a +++EV month (and wants to avoid depositing his share).

      The main problem is that it would be hard to spot cheaters (people who'll just photoshop a below-EV HEM graph to collect the money). But if only we can somehow find a way around this, I think this could improve everybody's poker lives very significantly (and of course, reduce variance by a lot)!
  • 21 replies
    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
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      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      mehhhhh
    • outspan
      outspan
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      Joined: 07.02.2010 Posts: 1,196
      Originally posted by supeyrio
      mehhhhh
      care to elaborate?
    • TiciBoy
      TiciBoy
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      Joined: 13.01.2010 Posts: 1,235
      :f_confused:
    • Saruniks
      Saruniks
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      Joined: 30.08.2010 Posts: 1,213
      Originally posted by supeyrio
      mehhhhh
      This


      or...


      Originally posted by TiciBoy
      :f_confused:

      this
    • jbpatzer
      jbpatzer
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      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,950
      Communism! Bah! :f_mad:
    • fryandspicy
      fryandspicy
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      Joined: 27.05.2010 Posts: 440
      Think it would be a good way of managing risk if you did something like this with a group of trusted close friends, but hugely dodgy to do with randomers.
    • inlovewithamsterdam
      inlovewithamsterdam
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      Joined: 08.07.2009 Posts: 671
      I may be wrong but I think EV graphs in HEM don't take into account instances when you run into a hand; i.e when you have a middle set and the opponent has a top set or when you ship it pf with KK against AA. These spots can be considered bad beats too, but wouldn't be accounted for in HM.
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
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      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Originally posted by inlovewithamsterdam
      I may be wrong but I think EV graphs in HEM don't take into account instances when you run into a hand; i.e when you have a middle set and the opponent has a top set or when you ship it pf with KK against AA. These spots can be considered bad beats too, but wouldn't be accounted for in HM.
      Well then the answer is simple. All it takes is for everyone to trawl through everyone elses databases one by one and calculate the unluckiness/luckiness of each player. Simple :)
    • Saraphas
      Saraphas
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      Joined: 12.11.2010 Posts: 6
      It's a good idea in theory but it wouldn't work out unless you personally know the players so you know they won't cheat everyone else and know that they're good players so would generally be +ev.
    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
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      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      so if i have Aces and i 3bet villian who flops a set and we get it all in on the flop and i suck out on him on turn only for him to river quads. so is this lucky or unlucky or what?
    • cjchalmers
      cjchalmers
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      Joined: 09.08.2010 Posts: 219
      Originally posted by inlovewithamsterdam
      I may be wrong but I think EV graphs in HEM don't take into account instances when you run into a hand; i.e when you have a middle set and the opponent has a top set or when you ship it pf with KK against AA. These spots can be considered bad beats too, but wouldn't be accounted for in HM.
      Erm.. of course they do... I really don't see how you could perceive the software not to track these saituations ...
    • Targetme
      Targetme
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      Joined: 04.05.2009 Posts: 1,888
      Well it would be really hard to organize past the micros. And if your a micro player you can just multitable to cut variance anyway o.O
    • clawindsouza
      clawindsouza
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      Joined: 08.12.2009 Posts: 7,085
      why not just learn not to be result oriented and then play a large volume:)
    • inlovewithamsterdam
      inlovewithamsterdam
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      Joined: 08.07.2009 Posts: 671
      Originally posted by cjchalmers
      Originally posted by inlovewithamsterdam
      I may be wrong but I think EV graphs in HEM don't take into account instances when you run into a hand; i.e when you have a middle set and the opponent has a top set or when you ship it pf with KK against AA. These spots can be considered bad beats too, but wouldn't be accounted for in HM.
      Erm.. of course they do... I really don't see how you could perceive the software not to track these saituations ...
      I'm not saying HM ignores those situations, but that they're not counted as unlucky. If you go to showdown against a higher set, the EV that is put in the database is exactly that: of a set against a higher set. The programme doesn't take into account villains range, it takes into account the hand he had. Therefore the 'EV' graph will not differ from the 'Winnings' graph in the case of that hand - it will not be possible to perceive this loss as unlucky if you're only looking at the EV graph (this is what the proposition was); however this situation is for most people's standards a cooler, i.e. an unlucky situation.

      The only unlucky situations that are counted in there are suckouts, i.e. you put it in good, but get outdrawn or vice-versa.
    • lynius
      lynius
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      Joined: 15.01.2011 Posts: 382
      I like the idea, but it needs some manipulation. What i'm going to do, it take the months when I'm below EV and balance them out with the months when i'm above :)
    • cjchalmers
      cjchalmers
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      Joined: 09.08.2010 Posts: 219
      Originally posted by inlovewithamsterdam
      Originally posted by cjchalmers
      Originally posted by inlovewithamsterdam
      I may be wrong but I think EV graphs in HEM don't take into account instances when you run into a hand; i.e when you have a middle set and the opponent has a top set or when you ship it pf with KK against AA. These spots can be considered bad beats too, but wouldn't be accounted for in HM.
      Erm.. of course they do... I really don't see how you could perceive the software not to track these saituations ...
      I'm not saying HM ignores those situations, but that they're not counted as unlucky. If you go to showdown against a higher set, the EV that is put in the database is exactly that: of a set against a higher set. The programme doesn't take into account villains range, it takes into account the hand he had. Therefore the 'EV' graph will not differ from the 'Winnings' graph in the case of that hand - it will not be possible to perceive this loss as unlucky if you're only looking at the EV graph (this is what the proposition was); however this situation is for most people's standards a cooler, i.e. an unlucky situation.

      The only unlucky situations that are counted in there are suckouts, i.e. you put it in good, but get outdrawn or vice-versa.
      Sorry I misunderstood you ... my apologies
    • amplifyd
      amplifyd
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      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 1,769
      lol once had a similiar idea before - but yea this wont work - you have to rely on people's trust :f_biggrin:
    • purple16
      purple16
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      Joined: 21.05.2011 Posts: 102
      As far as I know, "photoshoped" pictures leave traces, when you go properties of pic, under Details tab it shows Program name : Photoshop, and I didn't find a way to erase that.
    • amplifyd
      amplifyd
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      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 1,769
      Originally posted by purple16
      As far as I know, "photoshoped" pictures leave traces, when you go properties of pic, under Details tab it shows Program name : Photoshop, and I didn't find a way to erase that.
      lol garphs are still so easy to fake using different methods, esp if there is monetary incentive.
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