suited conector vs AA

    • bonecore
      bonecore
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.11.2009 Posts: 1,057
      I know this guy has AA or KK
      he is in early position and he very rarely raises preflop and i know his style ...

      he raised to 5 big blinds and i was last to act on Big blind
      i folded 89s but i think i could have won a big pot of him knowing what he likely has in hand

      ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      later ,another hand - same guy
      he is in MP (raises to 5bb and i am positive he has at least QQ+ ... as he limps AK)
      there is a caller on CO (this guy is a nitt so i put him on a pocket pair or AQ maybe)
      and i call from SB with 65s
      obviously the idea is to win at showdown... (not to bluff him out of AA)


      my hand is 65s
      please tell me in this exact spot if my calculations are correct
      % to flop a draw = 6%
      % to be ahead on turn = 7.5%
  • 5 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello bonecore,

      Moved your post to correct spot, it should be @ Strategy Discussion. :)

      Best regards.
    • Pureness
      Pureness
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.08.2008 Posts: 16
      You're sure he's got you beat and it'll cost you 5BB each time. Folding is free, why take the risk. I really don't think calling would be +EV :)
    • Jan217
      Jan217
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 626
      if you are <100bb deep and you think he will frequently stack off with an overpair then I think you can call.
    • phathustler
      phathustler
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.01.2011 Posts: 23
      I ran this query on propokertools.com/pql

      select count(minOutsToHandType(You, flop, straight, 8) or minOutsToHandType(You, flop, flush, 9)) as Enough_Outs
      from game="holdem", You="56s", MP="QQ-AA", CO="22-AA, AQ"

      Results:
      Trials ENOUGH_OUTS
      600000 107102 (17.85%)



      That should be how often you'd expect to flop a "good" straight or flush draw multiway with 65s against QQ+ and 22+, AQ.


      If you only care about outs for straights:

      select count(minOutsToHandType(You, flop, straight, 8)) as Enough_Outs
      from game="holdem", You="56s", MP="QQ-AA", CO="22-AA, AQ"

      Results:
      Trials ENOUGH_OUTS
      600000 54054 (9.01%)



      Also ran:

      select count(equity(You, turn) > 0.5) as You_Ahead, count(equity(MP, turn) > 0.5) as MP_Ahead, count(equity(CO, turn) > 0.5) as CO_Ahead
      from game="holdem", You="56s", MP="QQ-AA", CO="22-AA, AQ"

      Results:
      Trials YOU_AHEAD MP_AHEAD CO_AHEAD
      600000 76600 (12.77%) 406348 (67.72%) 108872 (18.15%)


      This should tell you how often each of you is ahead on the turn. (It's not clear what you meant by "ahead" on the turn, so I used > 50% equity.)


      If you want the % you'll have at least a straight by the turn:

      select count(minHandType(You, turn, straight)) as Straight
      from game="holdem", You="56s", MP="QQ-AA", CO="22-AA, AQ"

      Results:
      Trials STRAIGHT
      600000 49953 (8.33%)



      And while I'm here, this is to see how often you lose (assuming both opponents stay in) when you have at least a straight on the turn:

      select count(not WinsHi(You)) as You_Lose_Despite_Straight
      from game="holdem", You="56s", MP="QQ-AA", CO="22-AA, AQ"
      where minHandType(You, turn, straight)

      Results:
      Trials YOU_LOSE_DESPITE_STRAIGHT
      171940 32661 (19.0%)



      Anyway, as pointed out by earlier posters, the answer to whether you should fold or call in such situations depends on effective stack sizes and implied odds (in particular, how likely are these guys going to stack off with pair, two pair, trips against you on wet boards).
    • furculision
      furculision
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2011 Posts: 474
      Calling suited connectors from the blinds is suicidal,especially against a range that you know has you crushed so many times.Calling is -EV,you won't hit often enough.

      how likely are these guys going to stack off with pair, two pair, trips against you on wet boards


      this too