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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL 25 AA on the river

    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($40.97)
      BB ($10)
      UTG ($19.50)
      UTG+1 ($50.58)
      Hero ($33.96)
      BTN ($31.01)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: A:heart:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, BTN calls $1.25, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls $1

      FLOP ($4.10) 6:club: 3:club: J:heart:

      UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $3, BTN calls $3, UTG+1 folds

      TURN ($10.10) 6:club: 3:club: J:heart: J:diamond:

      Hero bets $5.50, BTN calls $5.50

      RIVER ($21.10) 6:club: 3:club: J:heart: J:diamond: 3:diamond:

      Hero bets $8.25, BTN raises to $21.26 (AI), Hero folds

      BTN wins $35.72

      I wanted to get max value from 88-TT, QQ-AA that are in his range and also I considered that this guy is never raising such hands AI for value here.
      Obviously I only see this guy raising AI here with a J and to assume that he is raise bluffing AI here with clubs is overthinking because he cannot expect a reg at these limits to bet fold a hand like mine here so when he shoves he is not expecting any fold equity like ever.

      Btw I think that I'm going to miss tons of value if I am not betting to extract some value from his pair type hands. Check/calling to induce a bluff is not that great because I don't think we can expect him to have many clubs in his range because the board paired on the turn.

      I bet so small on the turn because I wanted him to not fold any pairs in his range.
  • 4 replies
    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Now I realised that it's a simple c/f in this spot because from a combinatorics point of view:
      QJ,KJ,AJ make up 3*8 = 24 combos + JTs = 26 combos
      77-TT = 18 combos and prolly because he never 3 betted in 150 hands we cant put QQ in there so ==> 24 combos.

      so if I bet I am not getting called by a worse hand not even in this optimistic case >50% time.

      Because guy looks more passivish + the board paired on the turn so I don't see many fd's in his range I think he is not betting enough worse hands, if any on the river, so I am confident in a c/f as the best play atm.
    • ttjjboy
      Joined: 31.05.2009 Posts: 4,205
      bet more on turn

      I'd just check fold river
    • ragney
      Joined: 02.08.2010 Posts: 2,417
      I'd bet turn bigger and to that river I'd just c/f , nothing much we can do really unless you have a good history of the villain.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I woudl not b/f river once he has potsize left, so I would either shove myself thinking he would call me down with his medium pp-s or c/c letting him bluff with his busted draws.
      Also you can bet more on the turn to 7$ and then shove river. This way you get maximum value from worse hands and if he is good enough to slowplay on the turn then good for him